Correct The Record Saturday February 7, 2015 Roundup

podesta-emails 4,540 words email

D6 P17 P22 V11 V15

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*​**Correct The Record Saturday February 7, 2015 Roundup:* *Headlines:* *Fusion: “Hillary Clinton is in much better shape with a key demographic than she ever was in 2008” <http://fusion.net/story/45414/hillary-clinton-poll-young-voters-youth-new-hampshire-primary/>* “The 18-34 age group is the one that appears most firm about voting for Clinton in a 2016 Democratic primary.” *MSNBC: “Behind Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign launch window” <http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/behind-hillary-clintons-campaign-launch-window>* “Campaigns want as much time as possible to show strong results in those end-of-the-quarter reports, so an ideal launch window opens on the first day of every new quarter, and begins closing at the end of that month it gets closer and closer to the deadline for reporting fundraising figures.” *The Hill: “Sanders promises 'clash of ideas' with Hillary Clinton if both run in 2016” <http://thehill.com/homenews/232084-sanders-promises-clash-of-ideas-with-clinton>* “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Saturday morning that voters will see stark differences between himself and Hillary Clinton if the two both decide to run for the White House in 2016.” *Washington Post: “Healthy economy forces Republicans to rethink Obama-skewering strategy” <http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/prosperity-spoiling-republican-campaigns-political-strategy/2015/02/06/7688ca62-ae2b-11e4-abe8-e1ef60ca26de_story.html>* “‘When Hillary Clinton runs, she’s going to say, ‘The Republicans gave us a crappy economy twice, and we fixed it twice. Why would you ever trust them again?’ ’ said Kevin Hassett, a former economic adviser to GOP nominees Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. ‘The objective for the people in the Republican Party who want to defeat her is to come up with a story about what’s not great’ in this recovery, especially wage growth, he said.” *Des Moines Register: “Sources: Biden to make Iowa trip next week” <http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2015/02/06/biden-to-make-iowa-trip-next-week/22997139/>* [Subtitle:] “The vice president will be in Des Moines Thursday, sources familiar with event planning told The Des Moines Register” *Washington Post blog: The Fix: “New Hampshire, and the case for Hillary Clinton not quite being ‘inevitable’” <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/02/06/new-hampshire-and-the-case-for-hillary-clinton-not-quite-being-inevitable/>* “There are plenty of reasons to keep an eye on the Granite State when it comes to Clinton's supposed ‘inevitability’ as the Democratic nominee.” *Articles:* *Fusion: “Hillary Clinton is in much better shape with a key demographic than she ever was in 2008” <http://fusion.net/story/45414/hillary-clinton-poll-young-voters-youth-new-hampshire-primary/>* By Brett LoGiurato February 6, 2015 One of the potential hiccups with an all-but-certain Hillary Clinton campaign for president in 2016 is a perceived problem with young voters. There’s good precedent for this perception: In 2008, the last time she ran for president, Clinton was walloped by President Barack Obama among youth voters in the Democratic primary. He tripled her share of the youth vote in Iowa, prompting a top Clinton adviser to famously say, “Our people look like caucus-goers and his people look like they are 18.” But a new poll released Friday finds that, so far, Clinton is avoiding that trip heading into 2016. The poll, from the University of New Hampshire and WMUR, shows Clinton with not only a commanding lead among young voters in the state. It also shows young voters as her biggest supporters. The 18-34 age group is the one that appears most firm about voting for Clinton in a 2016 Democratic primary. Three-quarters of that group says they would vote for her if the Democratic primary were held today. Just 9 percent choose Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), a liberal firebrand who has repeatedly said she won’t run for president. And 4 percent would vote for Vice President Joe Biden. The results align with those from Fusion’s Massive Millennial Poll, which surveyed 1000 people aged 18-34 about everything from politics to dating to race issues. The poll found 38 percent of the millennials surveyed — including 57 percent of millennial Democrats surveyed in the poll. Clinton has bigger problems — if they can be called problems — with the 50-and-over crowd of the possible Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, who carried her to a surprise victory there in 2008. That year, more than two-thirds of Democratic primary voters were over the age of 40. She beat Obama by at least 9 points among the age 40-49, 50-64, and 65-and-over age groups. This time, according to the UNH/WBUR poll, her lead is smaller than with young voters. But she still leads Warren by at least 30 points in each age group. Some liberal groups have continued their efforts to push Warren into the race, even as she has become more firm in saying she will not challenge Clinton. This week, the “Run Warren Run” campaign — which is being led by the groups Democracy for America and MoveOn.org Political Action — announced the opening of a field office in New Hampshire. The group, which already has offices in the early-caucus state of Iowa, said it plans to open more offices in New Hampshire. It also hired a New Hampshire state director for its campaign. It’s being led mostly by younger activists who want Clinton to face a primary challenge. *MSNBC: “Behind Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign launch window” <http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/behind-hillary-clintons-campaign-launch-window>* By Alex Seitz-Wald February 6, 2015, 3:06 p.m. EST Hillary Clinton is running for president, so when does she plan to tell the world? It’s one of biggest questions in politics right now. Speculation originally focused on January, before turning to April, and now even July – but why not anytime in between those months? Launching a presidential campaign is like launching a rocket – there’s a ton of careful preparation and you have to wait for a window to open before conditions are right. But instead planetary movements, a campaign launch window is determined by the cyclical nature of federal elections laws and the power of money in modern American politics. Every four months, presidential campaigns are required to report their fundraising hauls for the previous quarter to the Federal Election Commission. Campaigns want as much time as possible to show strong results in those end-of-the-quarter reports, so an ideal launch window opens on the first day of every new quarter, and begins closing at the end of that month it gets closer and closer to the deadline for reporting fundraising figures. That’s why, when Clinton ruled out a January (the beginning of the first quarter) campaign launch, advisors and outside speculation immediately turned to April, which is the beginning of the second quarter. And when some of Clinton allies recently started urging another postponement, speculation immediately turned towards July, the beginning of the third quarter. Launching in, say, June would be malpractice, insiders say, since her campaign would have only half as much time to raise money. This also helps explain why Clinton’s potential primary opponents are almost all saying they’ll make a decision on their own runs in March or “spring,” in time for the April launch window. For Republican hopefuls, who are a facing a fluid and crowded presidential primary field, other considerations might be more important than maximizing their first fundraising window. But for Clinton, who has time on her side and can set the pace of the Democratic primary at her leisure, insiders say the reporting window is critical. She knows all too well just how important a presidential campaign’s first finance report can be. During her 2008 presidential bid, the first major sign that Clinton was in mortal trouble came from her first fundraising report to the FEC. To great fanfare, her campaign unveiled that they had raked in a whopping $36 million in the first four months since Clinton announced her candidacy in January of 2007. It turned out that only about $20 million of that was actually raised during the previous quarter for the primary campaign, though even that number was still seen as impressive. But four days later, Obama stunned the political world with his own eye-popping number: $23.5 million. For a first-term senator who, despite all his natural talents, was not given much of a chance when it came to fundraising against the Clinton juggernaut, the number was a sign of unexpected strength that immediately put him on the same level as the far more experienced Clinton. Voters are hardly paying attention this early in the race, and probably don’t care how much a campaign raises in their first four months of operation, but early fundraising is key to the so-called “invisible primary,” when candidates jockey for money and endorsements. A strong number that surpass expectations can open new doors (and checkbooks) for an underdog candidate, while a weak number can pull the rug out from under a frontrunner. Clinton does not want a repeat of 2008 this time around. Fortunately for Clinton, she has a massive network of eager donors ready to open their checkbooks the moment she gets in the race. Unfortunately for her, even if none of her potential 2016 primary opponents raise anywhere near the money Obama did, the high expectations that come from her prohibitive frontrunner status mean Clinton is under pressure to report an enormous figure in her first haul. While allies are loath speculate about specific numbers, some worry that anything less than historic will be seen as a disappointment. *The Hill: “Sanders promises 'clash of ideas' with Hillary Clinton if both run in 2016” <http://thehill.com/homenews/232084-sanders-promises-clash-of-ideas-with-clinton>* By Ben Kamisar February 7, 2015, 10:29 a.m. EST Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Saturday morning that voters will see stark differences between himself and Hillary Clinton if the two both decide to run for the White House in 2016. “Trust me, there will be a real clash of ideas,” Sanders said on MSNBC’s “Up with Steve Kornacki.” “I happen to like and respect Hillary Clinton, but I suspect on issues like massive investments in infrastructure, on real tax reform, on the need to deal in a very bold way with the planetary crisis of climate change, with the transpacific partnership, I suspect we will have some real differences.” Sanders is flirting with entering the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, but Clinton is a prohibitive favorite. Despite her huge lead for the nomination in opinion polls, however, there are signs of discontent among progressives, especially when it comes to Clinton’s economic worldview. If Sanders runs, he’d likely trumpet the goals of the progressive wing of the party, which wants bold policies aimed at addressing rising income inequality. “I think we need a political revolution in this country, we need to get people once again actively involved in the political process and take on the people who have the real power in America,” Sanders said. He added that income inequality is at its starkest since 1929 and that, since the 2008 recession, the vast majority of all new income generated has gone to the wealthiest one percent. His wish-list includes robust infrastructure spending, raising the minimum wage and a “national health care program that guarantees health care” to all. His proposals would both increase government spending and expand the bounds of government more generally — neither of which are things that Republicans are likely to support. But Sanders said that if progressives can rally a majority of Americans behind their message, they could force change in Congress. “If some of us are successful in mobilizing the American people and in a sense, giving the Republicans an offer they can’t refuse, yes, we can be successful,” he said. “We may not get everything we want, I think we can push the Republicans to raise the minimum wage a lot higher than it is right now.” *Washington Post: “Healthy economy forces Republicans to rethink Obama-skewering strategy” <http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/prosperity-spoiling-republican-campaigns-political-strategy/2015/02/06/7688ca62-ae2b-11e4-abe8-e1ef60ca26de_story.html>* By Chico Harlan and Jim Tankersley February 6, 2015, 10:10 p.m. EST A robust economy marked by a boom in jobs and a plunge in gas prices is threatening the longtime Republican strategy of criticizing President Obama for holding back growth and hiring, forcing the GOP to overhaul its messaging at the beginnings of a presidential campaign. On Friday, the government announced that 257,000 jobs had been created in January and that wages over the past year had increased 2.2 percent. The bump in wages, together with the sharp decline in gas prices, is providing financial relief that could be worth as much as $2,000 a year to an average worker. The unemployment rate ticked up by one-tenth of a point to 5.7 percent, largely because a wave of people reentered the workforce — or resumed job hunts — after years of discouragement. “We’re finally getting to that point where a self-sustaining recovery is going on,” said Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Standard Life Investments, an asset management firm. The improvement may mark a turning point in the nation’s seven-year-long debate over the state of the economy. Obama came to office amid a financial crisis, promising to turn the economy around. Republicans repeatedly — and, in the 2014 midterm campaign, successfully — argued that he had fallen short, with an economy suffering slow growth and unnecessarily high unemployment. But a broad consensus among economists that the economy has come to life in recent months appears to be turning that GOP strategy on its head. Some leaders, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have acknowledged and sought to claim credit for the improvement, which has coincided with Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress. Other Republicans, while agreeing that the economy is improving, focused on the most glaring problems in the labor market, criticizing Obama for not accomplishing enough. “We need to build on this recent momentum and continue closing the Obama recovery’s private-sector jobs gap when compared to average recoveries,” Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Tex.), the top House Republican on the Joint Economic Committee, said Friday. Republican economic strategists say that the economy’s improvement poses a tough challenge for the GOP, potentially undermining the party’s hopes of recapturing the White House in 2016 if they don’t have a message that goes beyond assailing Obama. “When Hillary Clinton runs, she’s going to say, ‘The Republicans gave us a crappy economy twice, and we fixed it twice. Why would you ever trust them again?’ ” said Kevin Hassett, a former economic adviser to GOP nominees Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. “The objective for the people in the Republican Party who want to defeat her is to come up with a story about what’s not great” in this recovery, especially wage growth, he said. Some in the party have already started to do that, acknowledging the economy’s improvements and tailoring their critiques to an issue more frequently championed by Democrats: the failure of the recovery to adequately boost wages for middle- and low-income workers. “What you can argue is, yes, right now the economy has the wind at its back,” said Kevin Madden, a former Romney adviser who is a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies in Washington. “Let’s seize this opportunity to deliver broader, sustained growth.” Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, considered a leading candidate to win the GOP nomination next year, began testing a message this week in Detroit, speaking directly to the struggles and frustrations of the middle class. McConnell, House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, have all said in television interviews that the recovery is not lifting ordinary Americans in the way that it should. Meanwhile, Obama said on Friday that the stronger economy is a case for his vision of economic populism. “My number one priority is making sure the American peoples’ wages and incomes are going up, because right now the stock market has gone up [and] corporate profits are at an all-time high,” Obama said. “At a time when the economy is finally picking up steam, we’ve got to work twice as hard in Washington,” he said. The U.S. economy has created more than 1 million jobs over the past three months, the best stretch of hiring in 17 years. That job growth, along with improved consumer confidence and spending, suggests the recovery has finally found a higher gear, more than five years after the Great Recession officially ended. Most economists expect that 2015 will be the best year for American workers since the recession. Less important than the pace of hiring is the emergence of solid wage growth, an indicator of full labor market health that comes when employers feel pressured to fight for workers. The average hourly worker saw a 12-cent-per-hour raise in January, the best one-month increase since 2007. Since the Great Recession, real wages have remained stagnant, but this is slowly beginning to change. Over the past year, wages have risen 2.2 percent. Meantime, consumer prices are seeing inflation below 1 percent, because cheaper oil has caused gasoline prices to plummet. “The pickup in average hourly earnings gains was a belated Christmas present,” Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, said in an e-mail. “It should help the Fed look past a temporary drop in inflation this year and keep their eye on gradually normalizing interest rates.” The typical 40-hour-per-week American worker, according to government data, makes about $1,100 more than he did one year ago. Meantime, savings from gasoline could prove just as important. The typical American spent some $2,400 at the pump in 2013, when prices averaged $3.44 per gallon, according to a government survey of consumers. If gas prices hold steady at the current $2.01, Americans will save $1,000 for the year. It remains unclear how long gasoline prices will stay low — oil has rallied slightly over the past week — but they’ve already helped drive a psychological change in the way Americans view the economy. Consumer confidence is at a post-recession high, and in January, a wave of people reentered the job hunt after months or years on the sideline. As a result, January’s data showed at least some evidence that these workers are again looking for work. The labor force participation rate — which tracks the proportion of Americans holding or seeking a job — nudged up from 62.7 to 62.9 percent. “When I look at this report, I see a confident economy,” Department of Labor Secretary Thomas E. Perez said Friday in an interview. “Companies that are bullish. New job seekers who are more optimistic. And when you factor low gas prices and wage growth, that adds up to money in people’s pockets, a greater hop in their step.” *Des Moines Register: “Sources: Biden to make Iowa trip next week” <http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2015/02/06/biden-to-make-iowa-trip-next-week/22997139/>* By Jennifer Jacobs February 6, 2015, 3:48 p.m. CST [Subtitle:] The vice president will be in Des Moines Thursday, sources familiar with event planning told The Des Moines Register Joe Biden, the vice president and an underdog in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, is scheduled to be back in Iowa next week, The Des Moines Register has learned. Biden will speak in Des Moines on Thursday, according to sources familiar with preparations for his trip. The news comes in the wake of the release this past weekend of a new Iowa Poll that shows Biden trails both Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren in the horse race for most popular presidential pick among likely Democratic caucusgoers. Biden's timing suggests he wants to keep his name in circulation as presidential material - any time top-shelf politicians make a trip here it reinforces the notion that they harbor aspirations for the top job. He is currently in Belgium, meeting with European leaders in part to talk about sanctions against Russia and security and aid to Ukraine. He'll also attend a security summit in Germany. Democrats generally think the 2016 Democratic nomination is Clinton's if she wants it, although she has yet to announce an official candidacy. In September, Biden made headlines for chasing Clinton here just three days after she made her Iowa comeback after a seven-year absence; she spoke before an audience of 10,000 and a horde of media at the Harkin Steak fry. Biden's event Thursday, like the one in September, will be an official White House trip to talk about the Obama administration's economic policies. Biden remarks in September, with the Iowa Capitol in the background, had the air of a campaign stump speech, as he called for raising the minimum wage and making life better for the middle class. Biden, 72, was here more recently, in late October, to campaign in Davenport for two Iowa Democrats running for federal office, Dave Loebsack, who was re-elected to Congress, and Bruce Braley, who lost his bid for U.S. Senate. This will be Biden's fourth post-2012 trip here. He spoke at the 2013 Harkin Steak Fry, and he did a private event with invited guests at Des Moines' ballpark, Principal Park, beforehand. Biden has a network of connections in Iowa after running for president here in both 1987 and 2007, then campaigning extensively with President Barack Obama in 2012. Known as a champion for the middle class and an expert on foreign policy, Biden has been described by Iowa Democrats as forceful, engaging and direct, but also has a reputation for long-windedness and verbal gaffes collectively known as Bidenisms. An Iowa Poll in September 2012 found that 47 percent of Iowans considered Biden a drag on the ticket. Among Democratic activists, opinions of him are high, the new Iowa Poll shows. He's viewed favorably by 78 percent of likely 2016 Democratic caucusgoers, the Jan. 26-29 poll found. Just 20 percent have a negative view of him. That means his popularity among those core Democratic voters is almost as high as Clinton's (84 percent favorable). But he's the first choice of just 9 percent of likely caucusgoers, while Clinton is the top choice for 56 percent. Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is the first choice for 16 percent. *Washington Post blog: The Fix: “New Hampshire, and the case for Hillary Clinton not quite being ‘inevitable’” <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/02/06/new-hampshire-and-the-case-for-hillary-clinton-not-quite-being-inevitable/>* By Scott Clement February 6, 2015, 2:30 p.m. EST New Hampshire has been very good to the Clintons, making Bill Clinton the "comeback kid" in its 1992 primary and helping Hillary Clinton to a badly needed victory after Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008. And Hillary Clinton is a strong favorite there again this year -- as she is nearly everywhere. But as we enter the 2016 campaign, it's worth remembering that New Hampshire likes to surprise us. And there are plenty of reasons to keep an eye on the Granite State when it comes to Clinton's supposed "inevitability" as the Democratic nominee. Despite vast coverage of Clinton's dominance in lining up for a presidential run, three in four likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters in a new WMUR Granite State Poll <http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_winter_demprim020515.pdf> say they're "still trying to decide" who they'll vote for in the state's 2016 primary. Just 7 percent say they've "definitely decided." The widespread lack of commitment in the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, is unsurprising roughly one year before voting. But it is a reminder there's ample room for volatility in a Democratic race which thus far has looked like a looming Clinton rout. People are at least open-minded. Between the courting of top strategists and Democratic donors, polls asking how Democrats would vote "if the election were held today" have found Clinton dominating other hopefuls. Indeed, 58 percent in the same sample of Democrats said they would support Clinton today, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in a distant second at 14 percent and Vice President Biden at 8 percent. This does not imply much hemming and hawing, but the "still trying to decide" number assures she hasn't put the Democratic nomination on ice just yet (nor should we expect her to have done so). The lack of final decision is not itself worrisome for Clinton; voters simply don't decide this early. At this point in 2011, the Republican field was in a very similar situation, with 78 percent of Republican likely voters in February 2011 survey still trying to decide who to support -- even as Mitt Romney held a 30-point lead over other potential contenders in a state he wound up dominating in 2012. Romney won by 16 points over Ron Paul, smaller than his initial edge but still a no-doubted from the beginning. But the survey offers other clues as to Clinton's vulnerabilities among primary voters and makes clear Democratic voters are not thrilled about their options so far. Fewer than one in five Democrats say they're "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates for the Democratic nomination (18 percent); 63 percent take poll choice equivalent of "meh," saying they are "somewhat satisfied." And despite nearly six in 10 preferring her to other Democrats, just 32 percent say she is the most likable and 31 percent say she's the most believable. No other candidate, though, beats her on these attributes. The rest of the poll is gravy for Clinton's prospects, and bodes particularly poorly for Joe Biden, one of her strongest potential rivals. More than eight in 10 have a favorable impression of her (83 percent) and just 9 percent are unfavorable -- by far the best favorable-unfavorable margin (+74). Others like Warren and Sanders are similarly well-liked by those who know them, but aren't as well-known. Biden's image is weaker according to the poll. His favorability margin is a modest +23 (53 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable), which far weaker than Warren or Clinton and worse than surveys by the same pollster in October and July (+32 and +47 favorability margins, respectively.) Biden is less popular in New Hampshire than Iowa, where a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll found a 78/20 percent favorable/unfavorable split on general impressions. The poll underscores how much Clinton's candidacy banks on other Democrats failing to make strong impression ahead of primaries this fall, and the importance of maintaining her own positive image. When New Hampshire voters do begin to decide, she'll want voters' opinions to look a lot they do right now. The WMUR Granite State poll was conducted on landline and cellular phones Jan. 22 to Feb. 3 among a random sample of 297 likely voters in the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic primary. The margin of sampling error is 5.7 percentage points. *Calendar:* *Sec. Clinton's upcoming appearances as reported online. Not an official schedule.* · February 24 – Santa Clara, CA: Sec. Clinton to Keynote Address at Inaugural Watermark Conference for Women (PR Newswire <http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hillary-rodham-clinton-to-deliver-keynote-address-at-inaugural-watermark-conference-for-women-283200361.html> ) · March 3 – Washington, DC: Sec. Clinton honored by EMILY’s List (AP <http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268798/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=SUjRlg8K>) · March 4 – New York, NY: Sec. Clinton to fundraise for the Clinton Foundation (WSJ <http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/01/15/carole-king-hillary-clinton-live-top-tickets-100000/> ) · March 16 – New York, NY: Sec. Clinton to keynote Irish American Hall of Fame (NYT <https://twitter.com/amychozick/status/562349766731108352>) · March 19 – Atlantic City, NJ: Sec. Clinton keynotes American Camp Association conference (PR Newswire <http://www.sys-con.com/node/3254649>) · March 23 – Washington, DC: Sec. Clinton to keynote award ceremony for the Toner Prize for Excellence in Political Reporting (Syracuse <http://newhouse.syr.edu/news-events/news/former-secretary-state-hillary-rodham-clinton-deliver-keynote-newhouse-school-s> )