EFTA01470842.pdf

Subject: Fw: epstein [I] From: Tazia Smith < Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 17:04:39 -0400 To: Paul Morris < >, Vahe Stepanian < MG <[email protected]> Classification: For internal use only FYI... Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Management loor E-mail: Original Message From: Tazia Smith Sent: 09/10/2014 05:04 PM EDT To: Zbynek Kozelsky Cc: Nav Gupta Subject: Fw: epstein [I] Classification: For internal use only Ziggy - know ur working on standard disclaimer for Nav commentary. What do I need right now so I can fwd Nay's highlights to client? Time sensitive tx Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management oor E-mail: Original Message From: Nav Gupta Sent: 09/10/2014 08:05 AM GDT To: Paul Morris Cc: Tazia Smith; Vinit Sahni; Uzair Ageel EFTA01470842  Subject: Re: epstein [I] Classification: For internal use only Paul - FX 1) sell 3mth 102 $Y Puts vs buy 111 $Y Calls roughly zero upfront prem (spot 106.50) 2) sell 3mth 1.5150 GBP put vs buy 1.685 Calls roughly zero upfront prem (spot 1.6150) 3) sell 6mth 1.35 eurusd calls vs buy 6mth 1.215 puts (spot 1.2950) of the 3 only the gbp has a decent vol pickup due to fear of yes vote in scotland referendum - but i like all the trades. if cable trades down to 1.50 there will be lots of UK real assets JE should be buying at that time. we beginning to think that some of the asian currencies where international investors are positioned for carry (like Indian rupee and indonsian rupiah) could begin to unwind if the usd continues to strengthen. can look at usd calls there overall like the us rates higher / stronger usd play. mkt shrugged off 140k payroll. its cheaper to bet on higher dollar than higher us rates. pricing some us rates risk/reversals will let u know if anything interesting USD Debt only loan funds which Vinit showed him earlier look attractive to us in US debt. anything with a core rates component looks like poor value as core rates are too low Financial SUB Debt in Europe T1 bank cocos are 50-100bp higher in yield compared to a month ago. they recovered more slowly after the summer selloff and have lagged both ends of the credit spectrum ie bank equity and snr debt. a typical french bank tl coco like socgen in usd perp callable in 2018 yields 6.60% mid. same credit ud perp callable in 2023 yields 7.40 mid id go for the 4y Japan - dont like the the play some investors are making buying payer swaptions to position for higher interest rates. BoJ will go down the same path as ecb and take rates -ve to encourage spending. nikkei risk reversals could make sense. cc'd Uzair who just joined the team. former trader and hf strategist. Nay From: Paul Morris/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS To: EFTA01470843  Date: 09/09/2014 14:30 Subject: epstein [I] Classification: For internal use only hi, any ideas? what are you showing clients? more euro yen?? Paul Morris Managing Director Deutsche Bank Private Bank EFTA01470844