EFTA00632418.pdf

From:Richard Kahn To: "jeffrey E." [email protected]> Subject: Fwd: Apple, Inc.: Smooth Sailing Into Supercycle Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2017 13:42:09 +0000 stock 127 premarket shares owned: 414,000 cost basis: 98.19 unrealized gain: 11,927,368 total position value: 52,578,000 Richard Kahn Begin forwarded message: From: "Morgan Stanley" Subject: Apple, Inc.: Smooth Sailing Into Supercycle Date: January 31, 2017 at 9:26:29 PM EST To: •tzl Reply-To: < L Morgan Stanley Wealth Management C. Subscription Notification EFTA00632418  February 1, 2017 Download Report Apple, Inc.: Smooth Sailing Into Supercycle Katy L. Huberty, CFA - Morgan Stanley February 1, 2017 2:21 AM GMT Apple is our top pick with the upcoming iPhone supercycle accentuated by the possibility of repatriation, tax reform, and M&A. Stronger Dec quarter and better than feared March guidance pave the path to our base case of $150, with $190 bull case becoming increasingly likely. December quarter suggests platform story intact. Over 20% normalized services revenue growth, re-accelerating iPhone unit growth, and constraints across several products are encouraging signs customer loyalty remains high and growth will accelerate further with new products expected to launch later this year. We are also encouraged by mainland China returning to growth (1) at constant currency, which is consistent with the acceleration recently reported by BABA. Growth in Mac, iPad, and Services revenue in China supports our view that users remain loyal to the platform but many are waiting for a new iPhone form factor to upgrade.March quarter guidance better than feared. The mid-points of revenue and gross margin guidance are above our recently lowered estimates as improving China demand, normalization of supply, and price concessions from suppliers help offset currency risk. While the pace of recovery could slow in June as Apple prepares for its biggest iPhone launch in three years, we expect the market to look through any weakness as was the case ahead of iPhone 6.We're increasingly convinced Street estimates are too low for FY18. iPhone returned to growth despite no major form factor change and currency headwinds during the December quarter. iPhone engagement and loyalty rates remain high, supported by 21% Services revenue growth (backing out $548M litigation benefit a year ago). New OLED displays, improved battery technology, and a redesigned form factor at the high-end of the portfolio are likely to accelerate upgrade rates in FY18. China will lead growth, in our view, and could account for all incremental iPhone shipments embedded in consensus models next year, even if the upgrade rate d This alert is sent from: Andrew Atlas. You received this because you asked to be alerted to: APPLE INC. Please contact your FA if you want to unsubsaibe from the alerts. Disclosures: Please see the full report for risks, disclosures and other important information. Important disclosures regarding the relationship between the companies that are referenced in Morgan Stanley research and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management research are available on the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management disclosure website at httpsi/www.morganstanley.comlonline/researchdisclosures. EFTA00632419 Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Not Acting as Municipal Advisor Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is not acting as a municipal advisor to any municipal entity or obligated person within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act (the "Municipal Advisor Rule) and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be. and do not constitute. advice within the meaning of the Municipal Advisor Rule. Copyright The copyright in materials provided by Morgan Stanley is owned by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. @ 2017 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Member SIPC. EFTA00632420