EFTA01379416.pdf

22 December 2017 EM Currency Handbook 2018: Still Fuel in the Tank Russia Russia formally abandoned the ruble trading corridor USD/RUB P. EUR/RUB exchange rates on 10-Nov-14 and switched to a managed floating 1000 900 exchange rate regime. The CBR formally targets a 900 • $00 reduction of CPI to 4% by 2017 and to maintain that 800 • 100 target in the medium run. 100 600 600 SO4 The CBR declares their intention to allow fundamentals SOD 400 to set the exchange rate and they claim to have no 400 300 fixed constraints or targets for the level of the ruble. 100 200 100 However, they reserve the right to intervene to prevent 100 100 financial instability. In 2015 they purchased just over 00 • - 00 $10bn during May-July as USD/RUB rebounded from 50 to 60 according to data available on the CBR 4? 4 40. •es's 44. 40 4' website (http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/?Prtld=valint). u11/940 m. 11$00010 — San 0.40664 Sark Abornimvp Anne* 40 Monetary policy decisions are taken by the CBR board of directors, consisting of twelve directors and USD/RUB and RUB 3M implied yield Governor Elvira Nabiullina. The members of the board will meet at least eight times in 2016, typically issuing 105 62A a statement every 6th or 7th Friday at 13:30 Moscow 100 614 time. These statements announce the key rate. In the 9.s 600 past the refinancing rate was also set at these 90 590 meetings, but as of 11-Dec-15, it will be equated with 09 S4 0 the key rate, and independent refinancing rate values BA • Sl 0 will not be set. In their words, interest rates are set "on 7-, the economic outlook and assessment of risks to 70 0 achieve the inflation target over the mid-term horizon, 6.s 0 and also on possible threats to sustainable economic 60 310 growth and financial stability." <I tit CI 1.% 10 664. 62 1 1 # 1 1 The ruble is fully deliverable and convertible. Prior to —v19/Rue Im npled v940. On ---1000943 the 1998 crisis, NDFs were actively traded both Snot Oant* Int onshore and offshore but the NDF market is now mostly offshore. NDFs are usually quoted outright and USD/RUB implied and historical volatility in USD/RUB. An EMTA fixing rate is used as a 000 reference to cash-settle contracts. Interest-bearing 600 deposit accounts may also be opened, as was the case 400 before the liberalisation of the capital account (July 2006), effectively allowing for the participation of non- Xi 0 residents in the deliverable FX market. 00 •20 0 .400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013 2016 2017 BBBBIDnereMul••••••Invl art. vol.vvvvItO In, vol Snow* Dann.* an. 0/00, 00.9 Itnenc•IP Page 78 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0076881 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00223065 EFTA01379416