podesta_email_00990.txt

podesta-emails 1,626 words email

P17 V11 V16 V12 D6

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- from Michael on Turkish election. From: Michael Werz [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Sunday, June 07, 2015 2:50 PM To: John Podesta Subject: AKP getting hammered With 91% reporting results indicate that AKP is around 260 seats, short of 276 needed for majority. Kurdish HDP "winning" big with over 12%, meaning more than 70 seats in parliament. Nationalist MHP has gained ground, with outsize effect on seat count from small Anatolian cities. We have word that main opposition CHP is preparing to piece together a minority government with outside (non-coalition) support of MHP and HDP. That could mean they open a corruption investigation into senior AKP leadership. All unconfirmed at this point. This result will mean an internal AKP fight to lay blame -- most likely with PM Davutoglu sacrificed. There is a chance, however, that this will cause the old AKP leaders who have been forced out (like Gul and Arinc) to turn on Erdogan, painting him as more electoral liability than bonus. There is also a decent chance this will mean early elections, likely by August, if nobody can piece together a government. But it means Erdogan's presidential dream is dead. The other remarkable thing to remember is that it appears the election was mostly fair (besides AKP monopoly on TV time, government resources). Turkey Election Could Transform State President Erdogan pushes for sweeping powers, but Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party could stand in way Turks are voting in a make-or-break election for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking to overhaul the country's constitution. By Emre Peker Updated June 7, 2015 9:07 a.m. ET 14 COMMENTS <http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-election-could-transform-state-1433602458?cb=logged0.16591131546449533#livefyre-comment> ISTANBUL-Turkish voters headed to the polls Sunday to elect a new parliament in the most uncertain and high-stakes election since the governing Islamist-conservative party swept to power in 2002. Polls opened at 8 a.m. local time with 53.7 million voters eligible to cast ballots and closed at 5 p.m. across Turkey's 81 provinces. Election officials and monitors started tallying the votes as soon as polls closed. Early results are expected within hours and the final count should materialize late Sunday, although the contours of the new parliament may not immediately be clear. While the tense atmosphere in the lead up to the ballots gave way to a more harmonious and hopeful environment at some polls, building pressure also triggered violence at others across the nation. Television stations broadcast videos from a skirmish in the southeastern province of Sanliurfa by the Syrian border, where 15 people were injured after pro-Kurdish politicians were barred from visiting polling stations. Turkey's pro-government and opposition media were also dueling, charging either opposition parties or the ruling party with obstructing ballot observers, sometimes through force. As polls closed in the Kurdish-dominated city of Diyarbakir in Turkey's southeast, local officials reported a high turnout and said long lines of voters had snaked out of polling stations throughout the day. Tight security measures were in place at voting points after a Friday bombing of an HDP campaign rally<http://www.wsj.com/articles/deadly-blasts-hit-kurdish-political-rally-ahead-of-turkish-elections-1433542162> left two dead and dozens wounded. Thousands of policemen were deployed in the city, with many bused in from other parts of the country, amid fears of street violence following the results. Many voters appeared confident the pro-Kurdish HDP would pass the 10% threshold. Murat, a 45-year old Kurdish construction worker said he had shifted his allegiance to HDP after years supporting the AKP. "I've returned to vote for my own people. The AKP has bolstered the police and state pressure is back... I was also upset by the attacks against the HDP," he said. "Turkey is at a crossroads, nothing will be as it was in the past after this election-regardless of the outcome," said Melih Demir, a 36-year-old attorney who voted for the main-opposition republicans and said mounting anti-democratic trends need to be reversed. "I hope that after the vote, there is no more friction, that there is peace." Opposition voters, split mostly among three parties, were united in the goal of ending the reign of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, or at least curbing the government's power. AKP voters, however, warned against a return to the volatile coalition governments in the decade before 2002, and touted the ruling party's accomplishments from infrastructure investments to empowering the conservative middle class. "My choice is obvious: the AKP-because they have achieved so much for the country. I don't want the nation to splinter, therefore I believe the stability of this one-party government must continue," said 72-year-old Hayriye after casting her vote in the governing party's Istanbul stronghold of Uskudar. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing to concentrate his powers <http://www.wsj.com/articles/president-erdogans-future-hangs-in-balance-in-turkey-election-1433476861> and fundamentally transform the Turkish state, there are mounting challenges to the $800 billion economy<http://www.wsj.com/articles/weakening-economy-threatens-turkish-governments-election-chances-1432814838> and the country faces national-security risk stemming from unrest at home and conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq, so the election's outcome is poised to chart Turkey's political future for the next decade. "Turkey is headed toward its most exciting and potentially decisive election in more than a decade," the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based nonpartisan policy institute, said in a report Tuesday. Contesting the election are four major parties: the governing AKP, the secularist Republican People's Party, the Nationalist Movement Party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, or HDP. Surveys in the lead up to the polls showed the AKP winning most of the seats in the Ankara parliament, but painted an unclear picture as to the makeup of the next government. "The vote is also likely to decide if Turkey will continue to be dominated by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose personal ambition to build a stronger presidency and solidify his hold on power has shaped the campaign," the Center for American Progress said. Indeed, while voters are picking representatives to parliament, the ballot will once again serve as a referendum on Mr. Erdogan and his vision for Turkey-even though the president isn't running in this election. Since his election to the nonpartisan and mostly ceremonial presidency last August, Mr. Erdogan has been campaigning to shift executive powers to his office from the prime ministry, which he held for 12 years before becoming head of state. The president argues that the transition would help streamline decision-making and allow him to build a "New Turkey" that restores the nation's Ottoman grandeur. Pointing at a series of autocratic moves led by stifling of dissent and a crackdown on the government's political rivals, Mr. Erdogan's detractors warn that the change would create an autocracy. An overwhelming victory for the ruling AKP, which Mr. Erdogan co-founded and led until last summer, could deliver Turkey's ultimate leader the executive powers he wants. For that, the AKP would have to secure at least 330 of the 550 seats in parliament, write a new constitution and put it to a referendum. To form a single-party government, the AKP needs 276 seats. While pre-election surveys have shown republican and nationalist opposition parties eating into the government's support, the outcome could be determined by the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party, or HDP. If the HDP wins 10% of the votes<http://www.wsj.com/articles/pro-kurdish-partys-emergence-in-turkey-could-shake-up-election-1433104855>, overcoming an electoral threshold to enter parliament, it would halt Mr. Erdogan from realizing his plans with a new constitution and potentially force the first coalition government since the AKP has been in power. Failure by the HDP to clear the barrier could land the governing party with enough seats to deliver Mr. Erdogan his long-held wish of an executive presidency like the ones in the U.S., France and Russia. The absence of pro-Kurdish lawmakers would also threaten to derail two-year-old peace talks with the terrorist-listed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. That could reignite an insurgency that in the past three decades cost 40,000 lives and $1 trillion in economic damage. "Turkey could witness a period of political turbulence and violence in the aftermath of the elections," said Anthony Skinner, who covers Turkey at U.K.-based political-risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. "The election is a choice between increased authoritarianism versus a parliamentary democracy defined by the division of power." The fairness of elections has also surfaced as a significant concern for the first time in decades, with tens of thousands of volunteers signing up to monitor ballots<http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkish-voters-volunteer-in-droves-to-safeguard-fair-elections-1433431415>. "I was bothered by the fact that my ballot was not tallied as intended in last year's local elections, so, I decided to volunteer as a poll observer," said Gurcan Gulersoy, a 20-year-old student in Istanbul's liberal Cihangir neighborhood. "Workers at the ballots are more serious compared to the previous elections I have seen." Distrust about polling follows scores of irregularities in the 2014 local elections, which had also served as a referendum on Mr. Erdogan's leadership as his government battled sprawling corruption charges. The AKP swept the municipal polls with 46% national support, and still comfortably remains Turkey's most popular party. "Only a few votes will determine whether the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold, creating incentive for vote tampering," said a task force led by former U.S. ambassadors to Turkey in a report published by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank. "The outcome of this election will be crucial for the AKP's 'New Turkey.'" Write to Emre Peker at [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>