EFTA01790418.pdf

From: Barrett, Paul S > Sent: Friday, March 15, 2013 5:08 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: RE: Interesting angle on KRW and KRW autos =OA 2MM? =/o:p> Paul Barret= I Managing Director I Global=Investment Opportunities Group I J.P. Morgan Private Bank =0A1 320 Park Avenue= 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022 I I NMB ID# 853441 =OD =/span> From: Jeffrey Epstein (mailto:jeevacation@gmail=2Ecomj Sent: Friday, March 15, 2013 10:16 AM =0ATo: Barrett, Paul S Subject: Re: Interesting angl= on KRW and KRW autos =OA ok On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 10:12 AM, Barrett, Paul S wrote: Jeffrey Bas=d on our view that the KRW will weaken given what is going on in Japan, we=should consider a total return swap to get long the Auto and Transport sec=or (see what happened to Japanese auto names recently on the back of JPY w=akness) *** EVE=T: Today's dovish Bank of Korea meeting, Korean Won breaking 200d MA</=> </=> EFTA_R1_00118414 EFTA01790418 Exhibit 1: Korean Won (red) vs. Korea's Transport Eqmt S=ctor (white) &n=sp; ••• Korean Won next=currency to weaken: Buy Korean Autos /Transport Equipmt {FIFW KOSPTREQ In=ex GP <GO>}. The sector is very liquid and trades USD 300m per day=2E =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; ••• The second stage of the Yen =evaluation could force other Asian countries to weaken their own currencie= too. In 1994, regional central banks just 'watched' when China dev=lued their own currency - only to see their export competitiveness being c=allenged {FIFW CNY Gurney GP M <GO>}. This inactivity will I=kely not happen again. &n=sp; &n=sp; &n=sp; broke the 1100 level=/b> and USD / KRW trades above its 200-day moving average - f=r the first time since July 2012. In our view, many market participants =ave not paid attention to this - yet - but closer analysis of coda='s dovish BoK meeting might change this. =OD ••• Interestingly, inflation pressur= has clearly eased. CPI {FIFW KOCPIYOY Index GPC W <GO>) hal=ed over the last 12 months to just 1.4%. Compare this to the overnight=call rate of 2.75%. {FIFW KOCPIYOY Index KOCRD Index GR <GO=gt;}. Based on Bank of Korea's dovish policy meeting an April rate=cut (April 11) is quite possible, in my view - especially as it wo=ld increase the competitive vs. Yen weakness. =P> Exhibit 2: CPI in Korea (red) is far below=Korea's overnight call rate (white)— rate cut possible</=:p> =OA &nb=p; =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; &nb=p; =OD ••• VIEW KOSPTREQ Index WGT <GO>) for =ector weights. &nbs=; =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; =OD 2 EFTA_R1_00118415 EFTA01790419 Regards, =0D =OD =00 Pa=l Barrett I Managing Director I Glo=al Investment Opportunities Group I J.P. Morgan Private Bank <=b> I 320 Park Avenue 14th =loon New York NY 10022 NMLS IOU 853441 =OD This email is confidential and subject to important di=claimers and conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of se=urities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, confidentialit=, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at . =OD The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may const=tute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the =ddressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unaut=orized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any pa=t thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you ha=e received this communication in error, please notify us immediat=ly by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:jeevacation=gmail.com> , and =OD destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including=all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This email is confidential and subject to im=ortant disclaimers and conditions including on offers for the purchase or =ale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, conf=dentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at ht=p://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email. 3 EFTA_R1_00118416 EFTA01790420