EFTA01458634.pdf

11 September 2015 Asset Allocation Figure 15: Gold and industrial metals in particular still remain very expensive --Industrial metals price —Fated model ind metals price index Fitted (Log Real IM Metals Pnce) = 16.9 -2.541Ln USOTW1) + 3.71World Output Gap) 550 (-172.2) 163.61 550 500 rstimated Sample Period: Jan 1993 to Feb 2013 500 P-Squared = 86% 450 450 400 400 350 u 350 300 300 250 -1rY. 250 200 200 150 150 100 3 r 100 8 8 th ;5 O O O O O O O O O O O O s=ew lecotrbeg /Vino LA Hoe. DalsaManit Figure 16: Underlying earnings growth, i.e., adjusted for the impacts of oil price declines and the dollar up cycle are robust across the developed markets 02 2015 Earnings growth yoy exci crude and currency Impacts US EMU Japan a companies reported 487 132 168 Proportion of companies beating estimates (%) 73.1 60.6 68.5 Initial headline growth expectation (%) -5.1 10.7 14.5 Size of beat (blended. pp) 4.9 05 18.8 Final headline growth (%) -02 112 332 Energy sector impact on headline (pp) -6.1 -0.1 NM Currency impact on headline (pp) -4.8 4.0 3.9 Growth ex dl and FX impacts, % 10.8 7.4 29A Skin. Neat Oa<hem. ant Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED R CRIM P 6(e) DI3-SDNY-0118633 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY GM 00284817 EFTA01458634