EFTA01385543.pdf

Deutsche Bank Risks ■ Bovis Homes - BVS.L: Downside risks include the lesser availability and ■ Deutsche Lufthansa AG - LHAG.DE: Aside from general sector, affordability of mortgages, which is a determinant of housing demand. macroeconomic and political issues, we see the following potential downside risks Economic factors such as the higher unemployment rate and consumer for Lufthansa: (i) the EU Commission attempting to block the Air Berlin deal, (ii) confidence also have a demand influence. Political factors such as lower an inability to realize synergies quickly, or at all, and (iii) increased entry into government funding and policy on planning have an influence on demand German domestic from more aggressive airline competitors. and supply. Company-specific risks include the later timing and lower ■ DSM NV - DSMN.AS: There are several downside risks. For the GDP-sensitive profitability of new land including some large strategic land sites, lesser industrially focused businesses, such as Materials, macro weakness could lead to control of material and labour costs, and the slower timing and lower profits lower forecasts and potentially valuation. For Nutrition, increased competition from the sale of parcels of land on larger sites would lead to pressure on prices and volumes and negatively affect our forecasts ■ Carrefour - CARR.PA: Key upside risks include: 1) sustainable market and valuation. For the group, higher energy or raw materials costs would also share gains in France, 2) strong economic rebound in Brazil, due to crisis potentially impact our forecasts and valuation. A sustained weakening in the US$ resolution and 3) faster-than-expected ramp-up of converted DIA stores in against the Euro and/or strengthening of the CHF could also impact earnings and France potentially valuation. Last but not least, M&A not happening or value destructive ■ Credit Suisse Group - CSGN.S: Key downside risks include challenging M&A in a context on high asset prices is another risk. capital market conditions, widening credit spreads, CHF strength, higher ■ Eutelsat Communications - ETL.PA: Upside risks: unexpected growth in wind-down losses and litigation charges. consumer broadband, pricing growth on video hotspots, accelerating TV channel ■ Continental AG - CONG.DE: Key risks include a worsening volume launches and accelerating EM pay-TV subscriber growth, strong uptake of 3D environment, especially in Europe given Continental's regional exposure, and Ultra HD, unexpectedly strong demand from military and governmental and higher operational gearing to the downside due to a higher fixed cost organisations, lower-than-expected CAPEX. base and revenue per unit (DBe); as well as a weaker tire demand and ■ Fresenius - FREG.DE: General downside risks relate to healthcare reform and pricing and higher raw material headwind. For our estimates, we work with austerity with negative consequences for Fresenius. Company specific downside the following assumptions: for the tire market (DBe: -25-30% gearing on risks relate to rising cost inflation not adequately covered by reimbursement (e.g. volume, biggest impact from pricing, mix around 1/3 to the bottom line). In for dialysis in the US), M&A integration (e.g. Qiransalud, Care Coordination deals) our analysis, the gearing to the downside in automotive exceeds the usual and/or overpaying for potential future acquisitions, more-than-expected easing of 15-20% gearing to the upside (DBe). drug shortages in the US and/or production issues at Kabi, rising competition and/or less-than-expected new products, lack of cost savings, and FX. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086829 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233013 EFTA01385543