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Global Asset Allocation J.P.Morgan 05 October 2012 The . Morgan View What do you buy your children? • Asset allocation — A long-term portfolio, fix you or your children, should Global Asset Allocation concentrate on value. This means large holdings of equities, especially value Jan Loeys AC stocks, small caps and EM, combined with BB/BBB rated debt of corporates (1-212)834-5874 and sovereigns, plus smaller holdings of gold, crude, and undervalued currencies. JPMorgan these Bank NA Economics — Rise in Global PMIs, and in particular order-to-inventory ratios, John Normand are the first signal that growth rebound is coming, even as Q4 will likely remain (44-20) 7134-1816 well below potential. M. Morgan Securities plc Fixed Income — Hold spread compression trades, and longs in UK Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou brcakevens. (44-20) 7134-7815 Equities — Re-enter overweight in Cyclical sectors. Morgan Secunties plc Credit — Short-dated corporates around the investment-grade boundary offer Seamus Mac Gorain the most attractive carry-to-risk, particularly European BBs. (44-20) 7134-7761 Currencies — Keep limited short USD positions. Morgan Securities plc Matthew Lehmann Commodities — We are long gold and base metals and short agriculture. (44-20) 7134-7813 Credit and equity markets continue to rally, with only minimal damage to M. Morgan Securities plc bond markets. The rise in Global PMIs, both manufacturing and services, combined with better US jobs data, are giving greater confidence that world Leo Evans (44-20) 7742-2537 growth has bottomed and is set to rebound into Q4. Even with a rebound this quarter, the world economy is set to expand at a well below-par growth pace through the middle of next year. This should keep corporate earnings with little M. Morgan Securities plc or no growth this quarter. As such, we do not expect much support for risk YTO returns through Oct 4 markets from economic or earnings releases over coming months, aside from %. equities are in lighter color. reducing downside risk perceptions. SEP500 • Our investment strategy remains instead based on medium-term value, which EMBIG means to us still high risk premia an equities and credit, in the presence of EM SCcip. falling market volatility and steadily improving familiarity with, if not fading MSCI AC world concerns about, the world's main event risks. Worries about the US fiscal cliff Geld have not gone away and the Middle East remains on edge. But the coming US Highroad leadership change in China is raising hopes of new stimulus measures, while the MSCI Europe' ECB planned OMTs have bought euro sovereigns some breathing space. MSCI EM' We thus remain comfortably long equities and credit versus government debt US High Grade and cash, focusing on the higher-yielding credit sectors. Globally, we continue Europe Fixed Inc' to like carry strategies in FX and fixed income. This week's GMOS has our full EM FX set of recommendations. The criticism is raised frequently that massive liquidity EM Local Bonds" injections are creating new asset prices. Bubbles are historically characterized US Fixed Income by easy money, leverage and hugely overvalued markets. Money is surely super easy, but equity and risk premia are above historic means and surely above Global Gov Bonds" where they were at this point in past business cycles. In addition, there is little GSCI TR evidence of financial leverage, except for central banks, but these have no Topa' problems with liquidity. US cash 5 10 15 20 See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures. Source: M. Morgan. Bloomberg. See blue box on page 2 for desciipbon. EFTA01181711  Jan Loop Global Asset Allocation J.P.Morgan f1-2121834-5874 The t Morgan View OS October 2012 • Our regular readers will have noticed that we have become a lot more US risk-return trade-off lines 2009-2012, 30-year return volatility on horizontal axis. appreciative of value in asset allocation and less reliant on price and IRR on vertical axis. IRR is yields for cash and USTs; economic momentum, which have been the mainstay of our strategy in the yield minus long-term default losses for credit; earnings past. This is both because momentum is not performing as well any more as a yield plus inflation for equities. market signal and because valuation reached new extremes in the cycle, which gives it greater potency. The chart to the right shows the clean mean reversion 16 Mar 09 in our measure of the US risk return trade off slope, and how this signals that 14 risk premia will continue to come down in coming years. 12 Jun-09 • The impact of value on investment decisions grows with the horizon over 10 which one intends to hold a portfolio. In this context, many of you have asked Jun-11 8 what we would hold in a retirement fund, for ourselves, or our children. Oct-12 6 Even over the next 20 years, your entry points matter, so you should start with undervalued assets. You should focus on assets that produce good time 4 diversification. That is, real assets, such as equities and real estate, that may 2 have high short-term volatility, but that mean-revert well over time. Nominal assets, such as bonds, do not time-diversify as well. Over this horizon, we see Cash 5 10 .15 more risk of inflation rising than deflation taking hold. Hence, we like Historic vol % inflation hedges in a portfolio, such as gold and oil, on top of equities. Sane:M. Mogan • Using round numbers, your long-term portfolio should hold some 75% in Slope of US risk-return trade-off line equities. Stock holdings should be concentrated on global Value, small caps, The line shows the slope of the US risk-return trade-off high-dividends, and EM, as each has shown superior long-term performance. line lines shown in the chart above. It exdudes US HY as Our normal preference is to allocate to passive funds, but in each of these it only exists since 1987. categories, there is evidence that active managers can outperform. Outside of 0.7 stocks, we like gold (inflation hedge), oil (commodity super cycle, if not peak 0.6 oil), BB/BBB rated corporate debt, as well as EM local and external sovereign 0.5 debt. Put some money in the world's most undervalued currencies, largely Asian EM. 0.4 0.3 Fixed income 0.2 • Today's encouraging payroll print jolted government yields higher, after a week ofremarkable stability. We remain broadly neutral on duration, while 0.1 expecting higher US Treasury yields over the balance of the year. We focus 0.0 instead on spread compression trades, including continued overweights in US 59 65 71 77 83 89 95 01 07 -0.1 MBS, and undenveighting Germany within the EMU core. • In a paper this week, we described a set of simple systematic rules for Scarce: t lAorgan trading duration, as a complement to more qualitative and discretionary More details in ... approaches (see Investment Strategies No. 74: Simple rules to trade duration). Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley These rules seek to capture a range of influences of yields, including Global Markers Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce economic news, investor perceptions of risk, and carry. Combining a range of Kasman. et al. diverse signals in this way yields a substantial diversification benefit, and this US Fixed Income Markers. Terry Belton and Srini approach would have garnered a return to risk of 1.1 in G-4 10-year bond Ramaswamy futures since 1990. For this month, the strategy suggests a small duration Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio short. Bassi Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang • We continue to think that UK inflation breakevens are too low. They have Key trades and risk: Emerging Market Equity Strategy. fallen because of expectations of significant changes in the coming months to Adrian hlowat et al. the way the RPI measure of UK inflation is calculated. We think the reaction Flows and liquidity. Nikos Panigirtzoglou et al. to these prospective changes is overdone, and recommend longs in 10-year UK breakevens. An attractive feature of this position is that its key near term Description of YTD Chart on front page: risk factor (the decision on the methodology for RPI) is essentially Returns in USD. 'Local currency. "Hedged into USD. uncorrelated with the broader market. See this week's Monthly Inflation Euro Fixed Income is iBoxx Overall Index. US HG. HY, Outlook (Diamond et al) for details. EMBIG and EMS Corp are JPM indices. EM FX is ELM'. in S. 2 EFTA01181712  Jan Loeys Global Asset Allocation J.P.Morgan (1-2121834-5874 The is Morgan View OS October 2012 Equities Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sectors Relative return index • Equities are up on the week and back to last month's highs. September represented the fourth straight month of equity gains, pushing the MSCI AC 65 World index up by15% from its June low. 60 • Macro data, PMIs and US payrolls were the main drivers of this week's gains. 55 The rebound in the global manufacturing PMI is inducing us to re-enter our Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sector overweight. At the same time, our 50 economists are seeing a constructive constellation of forward-looking 45 indicators, with an encouraging move up in new orders and a sharp move down in the inventory component. Such constructive moves have typically 40 pointed to the beginning of a rebound in industrial output. The chart to the right shows that Cyclical sectors have recaptured only a quarter of the 35 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 underperfonnance seen between March and August. So we see a lot of room for Cyclicals to outperform Defensives. Source:a mice, • We exit our EM equity undenveight vs. DM equities. Although macro indicators still favor DM over EM equities, market participants appear to be increasingly focusing on the hope that the Chinese leadership in November will be accompanied by stimulus. We are skeptical, but admit that momentum has turned in favor ofEM equities and thus prefer to close this trade. • The US earnings reporting season that kicks off next week should be mildly positive. A 2% pace in global GDP growth for Q3 is not enough to change the pattern of stagnation seen in S&P500 EPS since Q3 2011. We thus look for a Q3 EPS of around $25.6, similar to the first half of this year and unchanged from Q3 2011. The bottom up analyst forecast is $25.1, so such an outturn would represent a small positive surprise. Credit • Spreads tightened this week, as the PMIs set a positive tone for subsequent data releases, including today's US payroll numbers which were well received by risk markets. But the extent to which improvements in the labor market are credit positive depends on the unemployment thresholds that the Fed ultimately uses to justify more or less QE down the line. Whilst yesterday's FOMC meeting didn't give much clarity in that direction, there was an extended discussion on the merits and challenges of doing so at least. See Michael Feroli, Next stop: Evans rule for more details. • We outlined our tactical calls in GMOS this week. Ow top-down thinking remains broadly the same, with central bank liquidity the overarching theme in credit markets. We continue the focus on carry, looking to earn the highest risk-premia per unit of vol and find the most value in shorter dated corporates around the investment-grade boundary on this metric. Particularly in European BB rated corporates now that OMT has significantly diminished tail-risk in the periphery. Foreign Exchange More details in ... • Following a September when systemic issues such as ECB and Fed policy US Credit Markets Outlook and Strategy. Eric Bernstein dominated global markets, October is delivering currency moves much more et at. aligned with country specifics. The two worst-performing currencies so far High Yield Credit Markets Weekly. Peter Acciavalti et at have been ZAR (-4%) and AUD (-1.2%) on a mining strike and a surprise rate European Credit Outlook & Strategy. Steven Oulake et cut, respectively. Amongst the best have been PLN (+3%), INR (+2%) and at. EUR (+1.5%) on less-dovish central banks or reform initiatives. Correlations Emerging Markets Cross Product Strategy Weekly, Eric amongst USD pairs have remained at slightly below-average levels, Bernstein et al. a EFTA01181713  Jan Loeys Global Asset Allocation J.P.Morgan (1-2121834-5874 The Morgan View 05 October 2012 confirming the more idiosyncratic nature of markets in the ECB/Fed's wake. FX week y change in USD • With any luck, the country emphasis will persist, since currency managers 1.5% seem to deliver higher returns in this sort of environment than one ruled by systemic issues for the obvious reason that decorrelated markets provide more 1.0% opportunities for diversification. Unfortunately the next two to three weeks 0.5% will probably deliver a return to global issues. Stocks face a key hurdle with the Q3 earnings season, and commodity currencies another test with China's 0.0% monthly data deluge. Keep limited short USD positions. -0.5% • M. Morgan's China team has downgraded their growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to 7.6% and 8%, respectively. For commodity currencies, every -1.0% point counts: every 1% change in Chinese real GDP growth drives a 4%-5% -1.5% change in commodity currencies, so recent range in AUD/USD (1.02-1.06) USD JPY EUR GBP CHF CAD AUD and NZD/USD (0.79-0.83) would break to the downside if China's slowdown TWI persists. The key release will be China's Q3 GDP due October 18. Next week Sotrce: Maw delivers only money supply and trade, which are too narrow to sway opinions dramatically on the commodity currencies. The window for commodity currency strength may be closing ahead of the GDP release and in the run-up to the US fiscal ramp, but for the next week, we remain short USD/CAD in options and long NZD/USD in cash. Also sell EUR/NOK puts on a view that commodity currency strength will be limited this year. Commodities • Commodities are flat this \N eck, with gains for precious metals offsetting a fall in agriculture, while energy and base metals were flat. In our GMOS model portfolio, published on Wednesday, we closed our long in energy on the basis that production by the Saudis is more than offsetting lost Iranian exports, and as far as we can tell, the probability of a military conflict between Iran and Israel this year has declined materially. We maintain our long Brent time spread as a hedge to this risk. We remain short agriculture on the argument that the harvest in the US for key grains is essentially over so falling uncertainty around the harvest combined with higher plantings due to the current very high prices should steadily push prices lower. • Further central bank balance sheet expansion coupled with increased tolerance of higher inflation should support gold. Additionally, in this analyst's view, a longer term very important driver of gold is uncertainty around inflation, More details in... rather than any specific level of inflation. Two measures of this, the FX Markets Weekly. John Normand el al. standard deviation of realized inflation and the dispersion of economist Commodity Markets Outlook & Strategy, forecasts of inflation are at historically high levels (see GMOS: Commodity Cohn Fenton el al. Strategy, 3 Oct). We stay long gold. We also open a long in base metals on Oil Markets Monthly. Cohn Fenton et at. the view that the global economy is starting to rebound and that the China Daily Metals Note. Cohn Fenton el al. leadership change early next month will likely bring stimulus. Agriculture Weekly, Dietz et al. 4 EFTA01181714 Jan Loeys 1-212)834-5874 Global Asset Allocation The M. Morgan View J.P.Morgan 05 October 2012 Interest rates Current Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep•13 YID Return' United States Fed funds rate 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 10-year yields 1.71 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.1% Euro area Ref rate 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 10-year yields 1.52 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.70 3.2% United Kingdom Repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 10-year yields 1.77 1.65 1.65 1.80 1.95 3.0% Japan Overnight call rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 10-year yields 0.78 0.90 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.9% GBI•EM hedged in S Yield • Global Diverstied 5.82 6.00 6.1% Credit Markets Current Index YID Return' US high grade (bp over UST) 165 JPMorgan JUL1 Podolia Spread to Treasury 9.2% Euro high grade (bp over Euro gov) 193 iBoxx Euro Corporate Index 8.3% USD high Held (bp vs. UST) 576 JPMorgan Global High %eel Index 5TW 12.6% Euro high yield (bp over Euro goy) 764 iBoxx Euro HY Index 18.9% EMBIG (bp vs. UST) 287 EMBI Global 15.5% EM Corporates (bp vs. UST) 348 JPM EM Corporates (CEMBI) 14.1% 0uarterty Averages Commodities Current 1204 1301 1302 1303 GSCI Index YTD Return' Brent (5/bbl) 111 105 112 105 120 Energy -1.0% Gold (Sled) 1782 1725 1750 1775 Precious Metals 12.2% Copper (S/metric to) 8296 8300 8500 8700 Industrial Metals 5.1% Corn ($JBu) 7.51 8.75 8.50 8.25 Agrioihre 17.3% 3m cash YTD Return' Foreign Exchange Current Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Index In USD EURAJSD 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.32 1.34 EUR 1.3% USOUPY 78.7 78 79 79 79 JPY 1.7% GBP/USD 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.65 GBP 5.3% USDBRL 2.03 1.98 1.95 1.95 1.95 BRL -1.9% USD/CNY 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.25 CNY 1.7% USCKRW 1111 1125 1125 1110 1100 KRW 5.5% USD/TRY 1.80 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.70 TRY 11.8% YTD Return US Europe Japan EM Equities Current (local coy) Sector Allocation YID YTD YTD YTD (5) S&P 1466 18.2% Energy 8.1% -0.5% -4.3% 5.1% Nasdaq 3152 21.4% Materials 12.6% 8.2% -11.8% 3.5% Topix 737 3.3% Industrials 12.7% 14.7% -1.3% 11.4% FTSE 100 5871 8.8% Discretionary 23.1% 21.0% 4.9% 12.4% MSCI Eurozone 144 14.3% Staples 14.4% 14.2% 141% 18.3% MSCI Europe' 1112 12.3% Healthcare 20.7% 17.4% 10.4% 28.1% MSCI EM S' 1006 12.7% Financials 25.4% 19.3% 22.1% 15.2% Brazil Bovespa 59181 4.0% Information Tech. 22.4% 11.9% -5.8% 23.1% Hang Seng 21012 18.0% Telecommunications 28.1% 0.4% 9.9% 13.4% Shanghai SE 2086 #DIVf0! Metes 5.5% 8.1% -15.9% 5.9% 'Levelsketums as of Oct 04.2012 Overall 18.2% 12.3% 3.3% 12.7% Local currency except MSCI EM S 5 EFTA01181715 Jen /pays f1-2121834-5874 Global Asset Allocation The M. Morgan View J.P.Morgan 05 October 2012 Global Economic Outlook Summary Real GDP Real GDP Consumer prices .% ow a year ago ova* crevroos pen& saar me( a year ago 2011 2012 2013 1012 2012 3012 4O12 1013 2013 3013 4O11 2012 4012 2013 The Americas United States 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.3 15 2.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 3.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 Canada 2.6 1 2.2 1 2.1 1.8 1.9 t 12 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.6 2.4 2.0 Latin America 4.2 2.9 3.7 2.7 2.3 4.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 7.2 6.0 6.3 7.2 Argentina 8.9 3.3 2.2 2.4 -3.2 20 6.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 9.6 9.9 10.0 11.0 Brazil 2.7 1.4 4.1 0.5 1.6 42 4.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 6.7 5.0 5.4 5.5 Chile 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.1 7.1 2.0 4.0 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.1 2.5 3.1 Colombia 5.9 4.3 4.5 0.9 6.7 2.8 3.8 4.2 5.5 5.5 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.2 Ecuador 7.8 4.0 4.0 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.1 4.2 4.4 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.9 3.5 in 3.5 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.1 Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 8.3 6.0 5.5 6.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 4.5 4.1 3.1 2.8 Uruguay 5.7 3.5 4.0 11.8 2.1 9,Q -9.0 12.0 7.0 9.0 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.2 Venezuela 4.2 5.0 0.0 10.1 0.6 3.5 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 28.5 22.3 23.4 37.3 AslaiPaelfic Japan -0.7 2.0 0.6 5.3 0.7 :24 0.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Australia 2.1 3.5 2.5 5.6 2.6 1.5 1.8 3.8 2.5 1.8 3.1 1.2 1.7 2.7 New Zealand 1.3 2.6 2.9 4.1 2.3 13 3.5 3.7 3.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.7 t.8 Asia ex Japan 7.4 6.1 6.4 1 7.2 5.7 5.5 6.3 1 6.41 6.51 6.8 1 4.9 3.9 3.3 1 3.8 1 China 9.3 7.6 8.01 6.5 6.7 7,9 8.21 8.01 8.21 8.24 4.6 2.9 2.21 3.31 Hong Kong 5.0 1.2 3.2 2.4 -0.4 2,Q 2.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 5.7 4.2 2.5 2.7 India 6.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.3 5/ 5.0 5.8 6.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 9.8 9.0 Indonesia 6.5 5.0 3.7 4.6 6.2 al 3.0 3.5 4.5 5.0 4.1 4.5 3.9 2.2 Korea 3.6 2.4 3.3 3.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 2.4 1.9 3.0 Malaysia 5.1 4.7 2.9 5.8 5.9 25 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 Phificpmes 3.8 5.3 3.5 12.6 0.9 1/ 1.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.9 2.3 2.3 Singapore 4.9 2.1 3.4 10.0 -0.7 -1.6 8.2 6.1 -1.2 4.5 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.3 Taiwan 4.0 1.1 3.9 1.5 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.6 4.8 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 Thailand 0.1 5.8 2.7 50.8 13.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.5 1.3 1.1 AfrIcatt4Iddle East Israel 4.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 29 2.8 4.9 6.1 6.1 2.5 1.6 1.3 t.5 South Africa 3.1 2.1 4 3.0 2.7 3.2 gag 4 -1.2 4 5.9 1 3.8 1 3.6 6.1 5.7 5.31 5.4 4 Europe Euro area 1.5 -0.5 0.3 0.0 t -0.7 4.0 -0.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.0 Germany 3.1 1.0 1.5 1 2.0 1.1 0.3 1.0 1 1.5 2.0 1 2.5 t 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.8 France 1.7 0.1 0.11 0.1 -0.1 •0.54 •054 0.04 0.54 1.04 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.5 Italy 0.5 -2.5 -0.61 -3.3 .3.3 :2.5 -1.5 0.01 0.31 0.81 3.7 3.6 3.1 2.2 Spain 0.4 -1.5 4 -1.2 1 -1.3 -1.7 4.0 t -4.0 1 -1.0 4 0.5 4 0.5 4 2.7 1.9 3.3 2.7 United Kingdom 0.9 -0.3 1.5 -1.2 -1.5 29 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 4.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 Emerging Europe 4.8 2.7 2.7 2.4 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.5 3.8 6.4 5.0 6.1 6.2 Butgana 1.7 1.0 1.5 4 Czech Rookie 1.7 -1.1 0.9 .3.1 -0.8 Q -1.3 2.1 1.0 4.3 2.4 3.4 2.9 2.4 Hungary 1.6 -1.2 0.7 -3.5 -0.9 -10 -0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 4.1 5.5 5.9 5.0 Poland 4.3 2.4 2.1 2.4 1.6 12 1.6 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.7 2.6 Romania 2.5 0.6 0.9 0.51 1.9 4 -1.0 0.8 1.2 -0.4 3.2 3.4 1.9 4.7 6.4 Russia 4.3 3.6 3.0 3.7 1.5 In 3.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 6.8 3.9 6.7 7.4 Turkey 8.5 2.8 3.7 9.2 9.4 7.7 1 6.9 1 Global 3.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 4 3.8 2.8 2.8 4 2.8 4 Developed markets 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 Emerging markets 6.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.01 5.1 4 5.24 5.64 5.7 4.6 4.54 5.0 Source:. Morgan 6 EFTA01181716 Jan Loeys (I-2121834-5874 Global Asset Allocation The Morgan View J.P.Morgan M. 05 October 2012 Disclosures Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an "AC" on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an "AC' on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that all of the views expressed in this report accurately rellixt his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. 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