EFTA01387099.pdf

From: Martin Zeman Sent: 3/6/2018 11:44:52 AM To: 'Paul Barrett (I CC: Joshua Shoshan ; Davide-A Sferrazza I I; Xavier Avila I I; Stewart Oldfield Subject: XPO Logistics and FEDEX Attachments: 2018.02.22 - XPO Logistics - potential for 30% FCF.pdf; 2018.02.22 - U.S. Transportation report.pdf Paul, Please see attached 1-pager published two weeks ago (and also a more detailed report on the industry). Our analyst is really bullish on FEDEX and XPO and doesn't like UPS which really got beat up last few weeks. What I think makes sense is picking up premium on puts on these two stocks that you should be long if they dip lower from current levels. You get $4.50 for $220 June Fedex Puts (the stock now at $242 and still 10% down to January highs). When it comes to XPO, you can get $2.45 for May 90 Puts (we have a $133 target on that stock and I recently sat in a meeting with our analyst and he clearly is very bullish this company). My point is, you have nothing in logistics and you could be long a more defensive industry if you get exercised on stocks that have really good growth stories. On UPS — they really got beat lately, but they are way behind in capex investments compared to where Fedex is and their automation levels are 20 years behind Fedex now. Could be a punt, but not sure it makes sense trying to catch a falling knife on a story that is not attractive. Martin Martin Zeman Director I Key Client Partners Deutsche Bark Wealth Management DB Secuities Inc 345 Park Avenue. 10154-0004 New York. NY. USA Tel. Mob Em KCP products and services are intended and available only for persons who are sophisticated institutional investors within the meaning of the F1NRA Rule 4512(C)(3). and who are capable of evaluating the strategies. characteristics and investment risks of. and exercising independent judgment in evaluating, the ideas and products discussed herein. Trades and transactions are subject to relevant internal approvals of OBS! or its affiliates prior to execution. and the execution of any transaction or idea discussed herein is conditional on your becoming a client of Deutsche Bank. Key Client Partners (KCP) products, investment ideas and solutions and related matters discussed herein are provided for discussion purposes only. and strictly on a non- advisory basis. The KCP Americas desk does not provide investment advice. The information set forth herein is confidential andpersonal to you and is being presented for your information and for discussion purposes only. Any reproduction ancltor redistribution thereof (in whole or in part) or disclosure of its content without our written consent is strictly forbidden. This communication does not create any legally binding obligation on the part of 0881or any Wits affiliates. This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089194 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00235378 EFTA01387099