Re: HRC and DMR

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Okay, here's the link with those edits incorporated: https://medium.com/@Matt_Paul/6e563f2f7ab4 As always, the piece is only viewable to folks with the link--the URL will stay the same once it publishes. On Fri, Feb 5, 2016 at 12:43 AM, Rob Flaherty <[email protected]> wrote: > Sorry--was walking home and am making those edits now! Give me ten minutes > and this should be good! > > On Fri, Feb 5, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Christina Reynolds < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> So are we ready to give to tip sheets for tomorrow? >> >> >> On Feb 5, 2016, at 12:36 AM, Jennifer Palmieri < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >> Nicely done >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> On Feb 5, 2016, at 12:32 AM, John Podesta <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Love this especially the last line. >> >> On Friday, February 5, 2016, Lily Adams <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> Could change the end and make this two grafs. >>> >>> It may be inconvenient for the Sanders campaign that Hillary Clinton won >>>>>>>> the Iowa caucus, but it's the truth. In last night's debate Senator Sanders >>>>>>>> himself even said this was being blown out of proportion. I hope he passes >>>>>>>> that message along to his staff. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>> Eight years ago Hillary came in third here in Iowa and when she did, she >>>>>>>> congratulated the winner. We suggest Senator Sanders do the same. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>> >>> --------- >>> Lily Adams >>> cell: (202) 368-4013 >>> >>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 11:24 PM, Christina Reynolds < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> One thought for the group: given that, as Lily pointed out earlier, he >>> said people were making too big a deal out of this, but they are really >>> just HIS people--should we add that in here? >>> >>> On Feb 5, 2016, at 12:13 AM, Lily Adams <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Actually adding Tony this time. >>> >>> Reynolds/JP should give their ok. >>> >>> >>> --------- >>> Lily Adams >>> cell: (202) 368-4013 >>> >>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 11:12 PM, Rob Flaherty <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Here it is unlisted: https://medium.com/@Matt_Paul/6e563f2f7ab4 >>> >>> >>> >>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:23 PM, Lily Adams <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> + Tony whose team should check my facts as well aside from the delegate >>>> math >>>> >>>> >>>> --------- >>>> Lily Adams >>>> cell: (202) 368-4013 >>>> >>>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 10:03 PM, Teddy Goff <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>> + JFerg if we wanna move this to tipsheets >>>> >>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:01 PM, Lily Adams <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Great - JP/CR, once one of you all are good then Teddy's team can post. >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 10:00 PM, Robby Mook <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Ditto >>>>>> >>>>>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 10:58 PM, Teddy Goff <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> + Rob to proof and post once this is locked. I think it's great. >>>>>> >>>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 10:56 PM, Troy Price < >>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Love it. Let me know when it's out and I will send around to our >>>>>>> endorsers/influencers. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Troy >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Sent from my iPhone >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 9:23 PM, Elias, Marc (Perkins Coie) < >>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Excellent. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> Marc E. Elias >>>>>>> Perkins Coie LLP >>>>>>> 700 13th St, NW >>>>>>> Washington, DC 20005 >>>>>>> 202-434-1609 >>>>>>> >>>>>>> [email protected] >>>>>>> >>>>>>> @marceelias <https://twitter.com/marceelias> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Sent from my iPhone >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 10:15 PM, Matt Paul <[email protected]> >>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> + Troy >>>>>>> >>>>>>> This is really strong. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Thursday, February 4, 2016, Lily Adams <[email protected]> >>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> This has some suggestions from Reynolds but wanted to get it to the >>>>>>>> full group since she's in debate mode. we still havent heard from the IDP >>>>>>>> on what the specific 11 precincts are. the math is what they gave us so we >>>>>>>> havent been able to double check. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> *Draft Medium Post on Iowa* >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> There's been even more bluster than usual from the Sanders >>>>>>>> campaign, this time in an effort to disqualify Hillary Clinton's historic >>>>>>>> victory in Monday night's Iowa caucus. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Disparaging good news for Hillary Clinton has become a pattern for >>>>>>>> the Sanders camp. It you support someone else? You're dismissed as part of >>>>>>>> the "establishment >>>>>>>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.kcci.com_politics_sanders-2Ddes-2Dmoines-2Dregister-2Dis-2Dmedia-2Destablishment_37615894&d=CwMFaQ&c=XRWvQHnpdBDRh-yzrHjqLpXuHNC_9nanQc6pPG_SpT0&r=mJZthOcamSml7FV7KXYLE6P2EQrjV525p9lKVucDNWI&m=fxp5A3e2l6MHoiCdTpQ4t9KSUdqCsbOHjjj78BQpsLc&s=J7446Lo-8SD46_sbmDQ5dhoqZacxrQXrm4JyXIshVjU&e=>," >>>>>>>> unless of course they want to claim your support in ads >>>>>>>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__bigstory.ap.org_b99bdd52d829418490695b81aa0bfeb7&d=CwMFaQ&c=XRWvQHnpdBDRh-yzrHjqLpXuHNC_9nanQc6pPG_SpT0&r=mJZthOcamSml7FV7KXYLE6P2EQrjV525p9lKVucDNWI&m=fxp5A3e2l6MHoiCdTpQ4t9KSUdqCsbOHjjj78BQpsLc&s=UiyekSV0HNsbSqf2N4XdW7DSVIkVzT4_xh1u_Ccvgrc&e=> anyways. >>>>>>>> If a process doesn't go their way? It's invalid or flawed or they blame the >>>>>>>> Iowans who ran it. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> In Iowa, the Sanders camp started floating conspiracy theories >>>>>>>> leading up to the caucus. First, it was two weeks ago when they posited >>>>>>>> that Microsoft >>>>>>>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.msnbc.com_msnbc_sanders-2Dcampaign-2Dsuspicious-2Dcorporate-2Dinfluence-2Diowa-2Dcaucus&d=CwMFaQ&c=XRWvQHnpdBDRh-yzrHjqLpXuHNC_9nanQc6pPG_SpT0&r=mJZthOcamSml7FV7KXYLE6P2EQrjV525p9lKVucDNWI&m=fxp5A3e2l6MHoiCdTpQ4t9KSUdqCsbOHjjj78BQpsLc&s=WpE8u5rGccFk7CdBBmxnrqjF5A332B9QdIi8W-a5jwM&e=> might >>>>>>>> steal the caucus from them. Now that the caucus is over, they are calling >>>>>>>> into question the results that were reported by everyday *Iowans*. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Hillary Clinton won the Iowa caucus with incredibly high turnout - >>>>>>>> a level of turnout the Sanders camp claimed would earn them a win. It was a >>>>>>>> close contest and a hard fought campaign. But Hillary won. And once it >>>>>>>> became apparent that they had lost, the Bernie Sanders campaign began to >>>>>>>> peddle frivolous claims that have been disproven in an effort to poison an >>>>>>>> otherwise historic night for Hillary Clinton, our supporters, and >>>>>>>> volunteers. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Remember coin flip-gate where people claimed Hillary won all the >>>>>>>> coin tosses? Turns out that wasn't true >>>>>>>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.cnn.com_2016_02_02_politics_hillary-2Dclinton-2Dcoin-2Dflip-2Diowa-2Dbernie-2Dsanders_&d=CwMFaQ&c=XRWvQHnpdBDRh-yzrHjqLpXuHNC_9nanQc6pPG_SpT0&r=mJZthOcamSml7FV7KXYLE6P2EQrjV525p9lKVucDNWI&m=fxp5A3e2l6MHoiCdTpQ4t9KSUdqCsbOHjjj78BQpsLc&s=FbkNcbQp3NvMofZAvMdLAHaMla9EwwxsTD1agErbXcc&e=>. >>>>>>>> In fact, according to the official count, Sen. Sanders won more coin tosses >>>>>>>> than Hillary Clinton. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Or how about the "90 precincts" with no chairs? Also untrue. >>>>>>>> Certainly there were precincts that took a while to report but once they >>>>>>>> all did, it was clear Hillary had won. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Now the Sanders campaign is disputing the reported results that >>>>>>>> were sent in by everyday Iowans - volunteers, no less! - to the Democratic >>>>>>>> Party. All three campaigns have checked the results of certain precincts >>>>>>>> against their own data reported to them from volunteers. That's normal. For >>>>>>>> the Sanders campaign's challenges, there are 7 total precincts they are >>>>>>>> questioning (out of a whopping total 1,681 precincts!) and the Iowa >>>>>>>> Democratic Party is checking the results on a few more. And they will >>>>>>>> follow the same standard procedure for these questions as they did for >>>>>>>> precincts we asked them to look at - they'll look at the numbers reported >>>>>>>> that night, check the math and figure out if there are any discrepancies or >>>>>>>> misallocation of delegates. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Here's the kicker. Even if the Sanders campaign were to win all of >>>>>>>> their challenges - the marginal bump they receive in support would not be >>>>>>>> enough to overcome Hillary Clinton's win margin. Those are just the facts. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Here's the math. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> *Total Precincts in Contest: 11 (7 from Sanders and 4 from the Iowa >>>>>>>> Democratic Party)* >>>>>>>> *Total State Delegates being Contested: 1.7947 (not enough to >>>>>>>> change outcome)* >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> *If every contest were to go in the favor of Sanders:* >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> *HRC = -.775 * >>>>>>>> *Sanders = +.758* >>>>>>>> *MOM = +.0166* >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> It may be inconvenient for the Sanders campaign that Hillary >>>>>>>> Clinton won the Iowa caucus, but it's the truth. Eight years ago Hillary >>>>>>>> came in third here in Iowa and when she did, she congratulated the winner. >>>>>>>> We suggest Senator Sanders do the same. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 5:07 PM, John Podesta < >>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> +Teddy >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Sent from my iPhone >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 5:47 PM, Michael Halle < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 4:05 PM, Michael Halle < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Just talked to the IDP and have some good data here. First, >>>>>>>>>> Kathy Obradabadf;ljaksd from the DMR is writing a column on this to run >>>>>>>>>> either tomorrow or Sunday (we should have IDP push to have it run tomorrow) >>>>>>>>>> but that will give good ammo. We also need to push the IDP to release the >>>>>>>>>> below >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Total Precincts in Contest: 11 (7 from Sanders and 7 from Chairs) >>>>>>>>>> Total State Delegates being Contested: 1.7947 (not enough to >>>>>>>>>> change outcome >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> If every contest were to go in the favor of Sanders: >>>>>>>>>> HRC = -.775 >>>>>>>>>> Sanders = +.758 >>>>>>>>>> MOM = +.0166 >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 3:56 PM, Jennifer Palmieri < >>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Sure >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> *From:* Michael Halle [mailto:[email protected]] >>>>>>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, February 4, 2016 4:50 PM >>>>>>>>>>> *To:* Kate Offerdahl <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>> *Cc:* Jennifer Palmieri <[email protected]>; Lily >>>>>>>>>>> Adams <[email protected]>; Christina Reynolds < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]>; Marc Elias < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]>; Matt Paul <[email protected]>; >>>>>>>>>>> Robby Mook <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: HRC and DMR >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Are people fine to have Troy Price join this call too? >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> I think we need to get our endorsers behind this and hard. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 3:22 PM, Kate Offerdahl < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Let's do 5:30pm. Sending around a number now. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 4:07 PM, Jennifer Palmieri < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Adding Elias and adding Kate to see if she can set up a time for >>>>>>>>>>> a call for us to discuss. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> *From:* Lily Adams [mailto:[email protected]] >>>>>>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, February 4, 2016 4:05 PM >>>>>>>>>>> *To:* Christina Reynolds <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>> *Cc:* Jennifer Palmieri <[email protected]>; Matt >>>>>>>>>>> Paul <[email protected]>; Michael Halle < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]>; Robby Mook <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: HRC and DMR >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Same >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> --------- >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Lily Adams >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> cell: (202) 368-4013 >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Feb 4, 2016, at 2:58 PM, Christina Reynolds < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Free between now and 5 EST, then after 5:30 or so. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> *From:* Jennifer Palmieri [mailto:[email protected]] >>>>>>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, February 4, 2016 3:57 PM >>>>>>>>>>> *To:* Matt Paul <[email protected]>; Michael Halle < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]>; Robby Mook <[email protected]>; >>>>>>>>>>> Lily Adams <[email protected]>; Christina Reynolds < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>> *Subject:* HRC and DMR >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> I just told her about them calling for an audit and Sanders >>>>>>>>>>> campaign saying that they are looking at some inconsistencies. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> She is very upset about it – convinced they will try to take the >>>>>>>>>>> victory away from her and wear the party down. She wants a big effort to >>>>>>>>>>> fight here. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Suggest a call…. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Michael Halle >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> (217)649-4726 >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>>> Michael Halle >>>>>>>>>> (217)649-4726 >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>> Michael Halle >>>>>>>>> (217)649-4726 >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>> Lily Adams >>>>>>>> Iowa Communications Director >>>>>>>> Hillary for America >>>>>>>> c: 202-368-4013 >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>>>> >>>>>>> NOTICE: This communication may contain privileged or other >>>>>>> confidential information. If you have received it in error, please advise >>>>>>> the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any >>>>>>> attachments without copying or disclosing the contents. Thank you. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Lily Adams >>>>> Iowa Communications Director >>>>> Hillary for America >>>>> c: 202-368-4013 >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> >>> *Rob Flaherty* >>> >>> Digital Communications >>> >>> Hillary for America >>> >>> Twitter: @Rob_Flaherty <https://twitter.com/Rob_Flaherty> >>> >>> > > > -- > > *Rob Flaherty* > > Digital Communications > > Hillary for America > > Twitter: @Rob_Flaherty <https://twitter.com/Rob_Flaherty> > -- *Rob Flaherty* Digital Communications Hillary for America Twitter: @Rob_Flaherty <https://twitter.com/Rob_Flaherty>