Re: What do you make of this?

podesta-emails 1,058 words email

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Prescient. On Monday, August 10, 2015, Judd Legum <[email protected]> wrote: > > http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transcanada-quietly-plots-response-as-keystone-xl-rejection-seems-imminent-1.3185105 > > The Canadian company involved in the controversy-plagued Keystone XL > project has begun planning its response as indications mount the proposed > oil pipeline will be rejected by U.S. President Barack Obama. > > In its public statements, TransCanada Corp. is expressing hope Obama might > still approve the pipeline, which over the course of its years-long delay > has become an irritant between the U.S. and Canadian governments. > > The rumour is that the decision to deny has been made, and they're just > waiting for the right time- Source involved in Keystone XL project > > But people close to the project say the company has become all but > convinced a rejection is imminent based on signals the White House is > sending publicly and privately — and it's now considering the next move. > > One possible response is a challenge under the North American Free Trade > Agreement to recoup damages from the U.S. government. Another is > immediately re-filing a permit application with the U.S. State Department > before the 2016 presidential election.. > > - > > *Alberta won't lobby U.S. on Keystone XL > <http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/keystone-xl-pipeline-alberta-will-not-lobby-u-s-1.3172428>* > - > > *Election debate sees leaders clash over pipelines > <http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/leaders-clash-over-pipelines-during-1st-election-debate-1.3182452>* > - > > *Hillary Clinton dodges pipeline question at town hall > <http://cbc.ca/1.3172073>* > - > > Canada needs better access to crude oil markets: Rickford > <http://cbc.ca/1.3160613> > > A source involved in the project said the company is consulting lawyers on > the mechanics of a NAFTA challenge, and weighing the legal and political > implications. > > He said the main suspense now is how Obama will make his big announcement > — quietly, in a mid-summer Friday afternoon statement, or boldly from a > platform like his upcoming Aug. 31 trip to a climate-change conference in > Alaska. > > "There's a broad acceptance that the decision's been made," he said, > adding that different White House employees had suggested a rejection's > coming. > > "The rumour is that the decision to deny has been made, and they're just > waiting for the right time and venue." > > He said the company would not likely reveal its next move on the day of > the Obama announcement: "I think the most likely scenario is we'll let it > cool for a while. And then we'd have this more vigorous discussion." > U.S. has never lost a NAFTA case > > One aspect of that internal discussion is the political calculus — and > whether fanning the flames during the 2016 U.S. election campaign would > help the project, or harm it. > > Keystone could easily become a 2016 issue, with Republicans already > accusing Democratic stalling of hurting the economy, energy security, and > relations with next-door neighbour Canada. Meanwhile, Democrats have been > pushing their party front-runner Hillary Clinton to state her position on > the $8-billion (US) project. > [image: hi-keystone-852] > > North Dakota Republican Senator John Hoeven said last month that President > Barack Obama will reject the proposed pipeline. People close to the project > say TransCanada now feels that way too. (TransCanada Corp.) > > One expert said he'd advise the company to hold off, and hope a more > pipeline-friendly administration takes office in 2017. The U.S. government > has a 13-0 record in NAFTA cases. A suit would likely fail, cost the > company a few million dollars, and possibly antagonize the U.S. government, > said David Gantz, who was been a panelist on NAFTA cases and who teaches > trade law at the University of Arizona. > > "I think it's a fairly long shot, it's an expensive way to do a long shot, > and it doesn't seem to me to be something they're very likely to do," said > Gantz. > > "They can talk about doing it but my guess is once they have consulted > with counsel... they will decide it's — if not a long shot, then well under > a 50-50 chance." > > He said the company could try filing under NAFTA's articles 1102, 1105 or > 1110 — which deal with discrimination, unfair or arbitrary treatment and > expropriation. > > But another expert said the company might as well try. She said a recent > decision against the Canadian government in the Bilcon case involving a > Nova Scotia quarry could give TransCanada some hope. > > "Why not? And see where it goes," said Debra Steger, who was the first > director of the World Trade Organization's appellate body, and now teaches > law at the University of Ottawa. > 'Wasting billions of dollars' > > The White House hasn't said when it will make a Keystone announcement, or > what that announcement might be. However, it hasn't denied a claim by U.S. > Senator John Hoeven that a rejection is coming this month. > > The pipeline is also being fought in court in Nebraska. One opponent there > said TransCanada should just let it go. > > "No matter what they try, not an ounce of TransCanada's toxic pipeline > will touch Nebraska's soil," said Jane Kleeb. "At some point, TransCanada's > investors are going to fire the CEO for wasting billions of dollars and > years on a pipeline going nowhere." > > TransCanada CEO Russ Girling hasn't speculated publicly on next steps. He > recently said TransCanada will employ whatever means necessary to protect > its shareholders and its shareholder value, but for now is focusing on > getting a permit approved by Obama.*​* >