EFTA01377052.pdf

CIO Insights Weekly Bulletin — 19 August 2016 Perspectives From the Regions Asset C tazi:ses Forecasts Facts & Figures Commodities Crude oil raly hits the usual inventory obstarThs • Oil prices have rallied over much of the past week. Markets started to anticipate an agreement between Russia and OPEC to limit output. Saudi Arabia's energy minister also suggested cuts to excessive production. • OPEC will meet in Algeria in September 2016. Markets will watch out for any deal to cap supply after similar talks in Doha had failed earlier this year. • The rally halted, however, after data showed that U.S. gasoline stockpiles are rising and are at their highest seasonal levels in more than two decades. Inventories remain the biggest downside risk to oil prices this year. • The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that there couldbe no global oversupply from H2 2016 onwards. The IEA expects that global crude oil production in Q3 could lag behind demand by almost lm b/d due to output cuts by oil producers, while global demand remains more stable. • Further ahead, the IEA has nonetheless cut its 2017 global oil demand forecasts. IEA now expects demand to be 1.2mb/d in 2017, from a previous forecast of 1.4mb/d. This is due to a weaker global outlook. • lEA's updated views are still in line with our view that oil prices could rise modestly to $55/bbl (WTI) by end-June 2017. Currently, prices are hovering around the $45-47/bbl range. Commodities Oil prices move up. but remain below 2015 highs — Focus of the Week 20 10 0 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Figure 3: WTI crude oil prices over 2015-2016 Source: Bloomberg Finance L P. Deutsche Bank Wealth Management. Data as of August 17, 2016. Deutsche Bank WealthManagement No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates. opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of (Uwe returns. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. CIO Office, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, Deutsche Bank AG - Email: [email protected] p.7 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0073586 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00219770 EFTA01377052