EFTA01458542.pdf

Strategy Flashcard Strategy Flashcard S&P 500 to reach 2300 by 2016 end on a long expansionary cycle of moderate growth Reasons to still buy stocks: 2015 end target: 2050 2016 end target: 2300 Div Yld: 2% 1) —2.5% US GDP likely in 2015 2) S&P EPS will rise despite $/oil 2014A 2015E 2016E Quarterly EPS 3) PEs justifiable and been higher EPS $118 $119.50 $128 1Q14A $28.00 1Q15A $28.65 4) Bond yields are nil after inflation PE on yearend S&P targets 17.4 17.2 18.0 2Q14A $29.75 2Q15E $30.20 Dare to ask: DPS $39 $42 $45 3Q14A $30.00 3Q1SE `$29.75 Why not 2500+ S&P cycle-high? EPS/DPS growth 696/8% 1%/8% 796/7% 4Q14A $30.25 4Q15E $31.00 2500+ = - 18x 2018E EPS of - $145 Market strategy and tactics: S&P 500 avg. trailing 4qtr PE: Lower S&P returns than history likely, but still decent and few alternatives - stay involved, buy on dips 1960.2014 16.0 Consider lesson of 2014: Interest rates stayed very low despite better growth and tighter labor market 1985.2014 17.6 Next 5%+ move is likely: Up Risk of near-term correction: Moderate 1995-2014 18.6 "S&P PE stands on the shoulders of bonds." 2005-2014 15.9 Thematic and sector strategy: Tilt toward: Sectors/Industries: 1) Secular Growth Sectors - industries with strong sales growth in the middle of economic cycles Health Care, Tech 2) Sales Growth near 5% - industries not dependent on margin expansion to drive 5%+ EPS growth Health Care, Tech, Consumer Disc. 3) High ROE or long competitive advantage - ability to defend ROE/margins amidst low interest rates Tech, Health Care, some Consumer 4) Dividend Growth - stocks with ability to significantly raise dividend payout ratios Big Banks, Mega-cap Tech 5) Debt Capacity -companies that can issue cheap debt for acquisitions and share buybacks Tech, Health Care, some Consumer Tilt away from: 1) Consumer companies w/tired brands or facing tough competition (seek unique products/experiences) Staples 2) Smaller cap cyclical plays which are still expensive, prefer big-cap banks and select retailers Be selective and valuation mindful 3) Commodity and industrial capital goods producers, prefer Transports Energy, Industrial Capital Goods Risks Jul Se!lynNIS 4ung OipSine() - US tax on foreign profits, whether repatriated or not, threatens large multinationals and would cause margin contraction - EM economy weakness that causes a steep decline in commodity prices, especially oil, and threatens US exports and investment spending - A surge in long-term interest rates or any global economic shock would threaten our constructive view on the S&P for 2015 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118505 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264689 EFTA01458542