EFTA01385533.pdf

> TMT Deutsche Bank 0 Informa — Chris Collett, BUY, close 713.8p, 880p tgt, 23% upside ■ 2018 as the turning point. Investors have been sceptical of the Growth Positive organic growth across all divisions (split by operating profit, 2016) Acceleration Plan; we think the company finally delivers >3% organic revenue growth in 2018 (DBe +3.1%). Knowledge & Networking (9%) ■ We believe our forecasts are conservative. We estimate 6% organic OG. FY17/18/19. growth in Exhibitions (37% of operating profit) in 2018; growth has averaged 0.0%/1.5%/3.0% c9% over the past three years. Academic (45%) Global Exhibitions (29%) Organic revenue growth: - Product re-launches and improved retention could also provide upside OG: P117/18/19: FY17/18/19: 0.7%/1.0%/1.5% to our estimate of 3% in Business Intelligence (18% of operating profit). 8.0%/6.0%/5.0% ■ Academic Publishing should improve (37% of operating profit). We Business Intelligence (17%) forecast 1% growth, but with the disposal of Garland Science, better books OG: FY17/18/19: 2.0%/3.0%/3.0% integration and a dynamic new divisional CEO, there is further upside. Source: Deutsche Bank - Management has also reassured on a recent earnings call that margins would be protected. Informa trades on a discount to global information peers ■ Knowledge & Networking turnaround (8% of operating profit). Revenue growth turned positive in July-October 2017 after underlying declines every PE EV/EBITDA year since 2013. opt iiap 2017 2018 2017 2018 CoreLogic 15.6 14.6 12.4 11.5 ■ We expect the unwarranted discount to peers to close as Informa re- Experian 25.6 24.2 13.8 13.3 rates. Informa trades at PIE discounts of 2.5pts to Wolters Kluwer (despite IHS Markit 21.4 19.2 15.5 14.3 identical organic growth) and 4.5pts to RELX (whose organic growth is only Thomson Reuters 18.0 16.7 11.1 10.4 1pp higher). Informa trades on 14.9x 2019E PIE. Verisk Analytics 29.2 28.0 17.7 16.6 Median oure-elay BI 21,4 19.2 13,8 13.3 ■ Catalysts: FY-17 28'h February Informa 15.2 14.7 12.2 11.3 Related DB Research: Informa vs. median (15.0%) (28.9%) (214%) (11.4%) In the 3% club: raising TP to 880p (Collett) Source: Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Re6Parch• European. Equity Focus - Jarrutery 201B CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086819 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233003 EFTA01385533