EFTA02113512.pdf

From: Ike Groff Sent Tue 2/25/2014 10:54:15 AM Subject Early Tour 2.25.14 Good Morning ... European Markets off 10-60 bps (Denmark +1.7%, Ireland +1.2%, Spain +0.17%, Turkey -2.5%) NKY +1.44%, SHCOMP -2.04%, HSI -0.32%, KOSPI +0.81%, TWSE +0.18%, ASX - 0.12% EUR 1.3748 (+0.09%) JPY 102.38 (+0.12%) GBP 1.6693 (+0.22%) RUB -0.46% CNY -0.42% US 10yr 2.7391% Futures: Dow -17, Nasdaq -4, S&P -2 DXY $80.13 (-0.09%) Crude $102.10 (-0.70%) Gold $1333.30 (-0.35%) Asian markets were mixed overnight despite a firm hand-off from the US. HK managed to trade in positive territory most of the day on strength in energy and Macau plays, however the HSI rolled over late in the PM session on China weakness — Macau names were higher on talk of strong Feb GGR growth along with reports that Sands (+4.6%) and Wynn (+3.3%) are looking to develop casinos in Japan. HSBC (-2.7%) weighed on the banking space post yesterday's weaker results. In China, the SHCOMP broke down in the PM session to close on the lows. Developers continued yesterday's slide despite local reports that Merchants Bank (-1.4%), Ping An Bank (- 1.3%), CITIC Bank (-4.5%) and the Big 4 banks all said there has been no adjustments to real estate related loan policy and have not halted real estate financing operations. The Shanghai Property Index closed -2.1%, a fresh 8 month low. There were also some late reports of the arrest of an Executive Director of the BOC in a corruption probe that didn't help sentiment. Japan was higher, driven by a +4.1% gain in Softbank after the company said it is seeking a stake in Naver's (+7.5%) LINE unit (Naver later denied the story). Australia broke a 7day streak of gains, closing marginally in the red as weakness in materials/miners offset a strong gains out of QBE (+5.3%) and RHC (+6.7%) post results. Softer tone to start in Europe this morning as well with most indices in the red. Ukraine interim leader signals that a parliament vote on the formation of a new coalition government should take place on Thursday. And Italy's new PM Matteo Renzi won a confidence vote in the Senate in a 169-139 vote yesterday (he faces one more vote this afternoon in the lower house). Fresenius Medical trading -7.3% and Fresenius SE - 9.2% on weaker guidance. Moncler -6.6% on profit taking after posting inline numbers when many were looking for a beat. Tesco investor day today and there has been some recent reports in the press suggesting they may abandon their margin targets. In the US we will get Case-Shiner and Consumer Confidence a little later this morning. SPA's -2 handles =1843.70. ***Case-Shiller House Price Index gam, Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed © 10amm EFTA_R1_00737172 EFTA02113512 ***AMT, DPZ, EXPD, HD, M, TMUS, TOL Ws pre-open / AVGO, EIX, FSLR, MIDD, RRC, SBAC Ws after close*" • Stifel Financial reports Q4 adj eps ahead of estimates, FY results increased 24% yoy (trading +5.9%) • Tenet Healthcare reports better eps but slowing rev per admit growth, joins CommonWell (trading - 4.1%) • Sina beats eps estimates on increased advertising on Weibo which more than doubled its revs (trading -2.4%) • Mineral Technologies (MTX) increases offer to buy Amcol Intl (ACO) to $42.50/share from $42/share • KKR receives PE bids of close to $800 million for Ipreo (capital markets data & software provider) (FT) • Moncler FY revs ahead, net income inline, net debt slight worse, may not be enough (trading - 6.6%) • Vivendi FY net income beats, EBITDA ahead, revs fine, Canal+ fine, focus on SFR commentary (trading 4.5%) • Fresenius SE O4 revs inline, EBITDA ahead, RHK integration & FME guidance will weigh (trading - 9.2%) • Fresenius Medical FY net income inline, net income guidance 13% below market (trading -7.3%) • BASF O4 revs better, EBITDA ahead, EPS fine, mixed outlook in challenging environment (trading - 1.7%) • Oerlikon FY revs inline, EBITDA shade better, sees stable order intake & profitability (trading +1.7%) • Scania: independent committee recommends s/h to not make final VOW GY decision (trading +0.05%) • Persimmon FY revs inline, op profit fine, EPS ahead, upbeat outlook with strong order book (trading -0.60%) • GKN Holdings FY revs beat, op profit inline, EPS ahead, good outlook but FX headwinds (trading - 2.0%) • Ladbrokes FY revs ahead, profit inline, digital underperforms as World Cup approaches (trading +3.0%) • Straumann FY revs inline, EBITDA ahead, EPS below, sees low single digit rev growth (trading +2.5%) • Golden Ocean Q4 revs light, EBITDA ahead, EPS better, good vessel visibility, soft guidance (trading -3.4%) EFTA_R1_00737173 EFTA02113513  • CRH FY revs & EBITDA inline, believe 2013 represented trough for profits (trading +4.4%) • Norway Prime Minister Erna Solberg to target policies that prevent the Krone from strengthening • Italy's Renzi 3 pledges: payroll tax cuts, boost small business lending, paying down Rome's arrears (WSJ) Leading European Sectors: Construction +0.59%, Real Estate +0.31%, Travel/Leisure +0.27% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Resources -1.70%, Media -0.72%, Fin Services -0.52% TSCO boosts buyback S1B — WMGI earnings mixed — MMSI eps/revs better PPO eps/revs better - NLS Ws inline — BAGL CEO resigning TXRH inline & boosts div — ROVI buys Veveo — OKS Ws inline SGY eamings mixed — TUES mgmt appointments — VOLC Ws light XPO eps light revs inline — GB reports inline — ROIC penny better LYV ebitda better — HVT eps better — VNO earnings inline ROSE eps better — QEP Jana agreement — DLR #'s better EOG better & 2:1 split — CHMT Ws better — TTEC eps better PERY slashes forecast — GLF #'s mixed — NA CN #'s inline Secondaries (announced/priced): TRNX, AINV, ALSN, SAMAS FH IPO's: N/A US Key Research: • Barcap upgrades ED & downgrades AEE, CS & GS initiates SNOW, • DB initiates BLOX (buy) & PKT (sell), Jefferies downgrades BAS/MWE • Raja initiates AVGO (op) & upgrades PEBO (buy), Susquehanna initiates ADBE (pos) Stifel initiates CARA/ALGT/ALK/DAUSAVE/UAL (buy) & HAAJBLU/LUV (hold) Canaccord upgrades GSS & cuts RFMD, Opco upgrades NDSN EFTA_R1_00737174 EFTA02113514  Brean upgrades TQNT, JPM cuts WUS Europe Key Research: BofAML downgrade DLG IM, SWEDA SS, Berenberg downgrade CGL LN, resume BEI GY (buy) • Cana downgrade ASHM LN, upgrade ABG LN, Citi downgrade BVS LN, HSBA LN, CWC LN • Equinet downgrade FRE GY, BION SW, GS add EDCL LN to focus list HSBC upgrade BMPS IM, JPM downgrade CARLB DC, Nordea d/g JYSK DC, Cantor d/g KER FP KepChev upgrade PRS SM, initiate ZEH SW, KABA SW, FORN SW (buy) Reporting Pre-Open: AMT, EXPD, FE, HD, M, ANFI, ARIA, ASTE, AYR, BLMN, BMO CN, CAS, CBRL, CBRL, CRZO, CTG, DPZ, DRH, EME, EXH, EXLP, FCH, FNP, GLDD, GLF, GPX, GTLS, HFC, HPT, HSII, INFI, LMOS, LNT, MSO, ODP, OGE, PCRX, RLGY, RST, SAFM, SDLP, SDRL, SHOO, SICK, TAM, TECD, TMUS, TNC, TOL, UNS, UNT, UTHR, VC, VSI, WCIC, WPC, ZINC Reporting Post-Close: AVGO, EIX, FSLR, QEP, RRC, SBAC, VRSK, ACCL, AEGN, AMC, AMRS, AMSG, ARC, ATHL, ATNI, AXTI, BEEN, BGFV, BOOM, BSQR, BTUI, CBI, CDR, CERS, CFI, CLGX, CNL, CPRT, DKL, DMD, DWA, DY, EXPG, EIGI, EPIQ, EXAM, FENG, FMI, FR, FRGI, FST, HEI, HT, HURN, IL, JAZZ LMAT, MATX, MIDD, NATL, NDSN, NLY, OAS, ONVI, ORA, OTEL, PACD, PEGA, QCOR, QEPM, QLTY, RCKY, RGR, RRC, RRD, RSO, SAM, SLCA, SLRC, SPN, SSS, STV, STXS, SUNS, WEYS, WFT, WIFI, XCO, Y, ZAGG, ZLTQ Economic Data: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index @ 9am, Consumer Confidence! Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index © 10am Conferences: BMO Metals and Mining (Hollywood, FL), Citi Global Healthcare (NYC), JPM High Yield & Leveraged Finance (Miami) Conferences: JPM Emerging Markets Corporate (Miami), Mobile World Congress (Barcelona), MS Houston Energy Summit (Houston) Conferences: Baird Business Solutions (NYC), RBC Healthcare (NYC), Both Global Agriculture (Ft. Lauderdale), Key Consumer (NYC) Analyst/Investor Days: PWR, JPM, RST, CERN, THI, VC EFTA_R1_00737175 EFTA02113515 Non-Deal Roadshows: ABB, AMCC, ARAY, ASUR, CIG, DCI, ECHO, EL, EPM, EXAR, FLWS, HA, HAIN, HLIT, MRVL, OSK, PSTI, R, RDWR, SYNA, TLOG, TOT, WETF, WNC, WWE, ROOM, ZEP, ZIXI, UTX, ACXM Shareholder Meetings: NVS, NDSN, TSCO, NCS, AVL, SLP, STA, UMPQ Equity/Mixed SheIfs: AMGN Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: CF Industries (CF) WSJ • Inside the Showdown Atop Pimco, the World's Biggest Bond Firm WSJ • Easy Currency Bet Gets Harder as the Chinese Yuan Tumbles WSJ • Banks Take Interest in College Lending WSJ • Ukraine Issues Arrest Warrant for Ousted President Yanukovych WSJ • Samsung Unveils Latest Galaxy Phone WSJ • T-Mobile's Call Is a Wrong Number WSJ • Natural Gas Slides Most in Six Years WSJ • LVMH to Develop Italian Fashion House Marco de Vincenzo WSJ • I Thought Faeebook's WhatsApp Deal Was Crazy. Then I Did Some Math. WSJ • China Group Forecasts Rise in Steel Output, Iron-Ore Imports WSJ • Inside the showdown atop Pimco WSJ • Banking On Move By Fed as Top Cop WSJ • Syria War Stirs New U.S. Debate on Cyberattacks NYT • @GSElevator Tattletale Exposed (He Was Not in the Goldman Elevator) NYT • Pension Funds Sue on a Deal Gone Cold NYT EFTA_R1_00737176 EFTA02113516 • Markit and Virtu race for New York IPOs FT • JP Morgan to cut thousands more jobs FT • Bitcoin's Mt Gox disappears, insolvency feared CNBC • Moscow takes aim at Ukraine's interim leaders and the west FT • Ukraine's interim government asks for $35bn in loans FT • An east-west battle over Ukraine can be avoided FT • Matteo Renzi takes the stage in Italy FT • Five risks to Portugal's bailout success FT • HSBC: high yield hero? Lex • Netflix / Comcast: strange bedfellows Lex • Cameron overestimates Merkel's vim for EU reform FT • 'Time running out' for eurozone banking union The Times • How Dixons came back from dead to beat feared American invader The Times • Gulf Keystone Petroleum's move to London market The Times • Underdog likes taking on big boys The Times • Tesco brand has 'baggage', admits chief executive Philip Clarke Telegraph • Ladbrokes profits slump but chief insists it made progress Telegraph • Is Ukraine's misery the next Black Swan for West's financial markets? Telegraph • Carl Icahn makes it personal with eBay board Independent • Vodafone investors should start counting their reasons to be cheerful Independent Key Events This Week Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities Conference (NYC), Earnings (AES, CHK, CNP, CVC, DLTR, LOW, NFX, TGT, TJX, ADSK, BIDU, LB, RIG) Thursday: Durable & Capital Goods Orders, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, Goldman Sachs Social Media Forum (NYC), Earnings (BBY, CTRX, KSS, PLL, SRE, WPX, CRM, GPS, MNST) EFTA_R1_00737177 EFTA02113517 Friday: MSCI index rebalance, GDP, Chicago PMI, U. of Michigan Confidence, Earnings (IRM, LINTA, LMCA, NRG, POM, SWN) Key Events on the Horizon March — Local elections in Turkey Mar 4 — Obama to publish his budget Mar 18 — German Constitutional Court will rule on legality of ESM bailout mechanism & fiscal pact Apr 11 — DBRS to decide on whether to downgrade Spain or Italy Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 06901 EFTA_R1_00737178 EFTA02113518 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. 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