EFTA01357794.pdf
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13 January 2015
HY Corporate Credit
Energy
Hedging Screen
Hedges are short term in nature and most important for 2015 cash flow. To
the extent hedges preserve liquidity and operating momentum over the next
year for E&Ps, they remain an important tool and differentiator. In particular,
should the commodity cycle snap back more quickly than expected, those with
hedges that afford more growth-driven capital programs in 2015 can carry that
momentum into 2016. However, those E&Ps, which have made more drastic
capital cuts, will have more ground to cover in terms of ramping production
back up to reach optimal efficiency. Looking at the top quartile, one can see
higher cost E&Ps protecting against down side (DNR, HK, MPO) while other
E&Ps hedged oil price risk out of recent acquisitions (HILCRP in Alaska). The
top quartile is significantly more oily (average: 65% of production) and seems
to have been more defensive about protecting against oil downside. On the
other hand, the bottom quartile averages -55% gas production and given the
performance of gas recently, there was less to protect in the way of cash flows
there.
Page 32 Deutsche Sank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0044575
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00190759
EFTA01357794
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EFTA01357794
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