News Update - July 23, 2015

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Thursday, July 23 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://www.centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/July-23.pdf) Headlines: * Italian PM: Israel is the Nation-State of the Jewish People * US Congress to Begin Hearings on Iran Nuclear Agreement * After Labeling, EU Think-Tank Proposes Banking Steps on Israel * U.S.: Netanyahu Would Reject any Nuclear Deal with Iran * AIPAC Girds for Rare High-Noon Showdown with White House * Netanyahu: ‘Better’ Iran Deal can still Fix ‘Historic Mistake’ * US Imposes Sanctions on Hezbollah Leaders * Achievement to Opposition on Judges Selection Committee Commentary: * Washington Post: “The Case for the Nuclear Deal with Iran” - By John Kerry and Ernest Moniz * New York Times: “Backing Up Our Wager with Iran” - By Thomas L. Friedman ** Ha'arezt ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Renzi: Israel is the Nation-State of the Jewish People (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.667229) ------------------------------------------------------------ In a speech to the Knesset this afternoon, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi called Israel the nation-state of the Jewish people. Renzi said that when he delivers a speech to the Palestinians in Bethlehem later in his visit, he plans to tell them that “to recognize Israel is to recognize reality.” Renzi arrived on Tuesday for a visit of several days to Israel and the Palestinian Authority. In his speech, Renzi voiced enthusiastic support for Israel – for its security, economy and culture and referred to the calls for boycotts of Israel. “Whoever boycotts Israel doesn’t understand that he is boycotting himself and doesn’t understanding that he is betraying his own future,” Renzi said. ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** US Congress to Begin Hearings on Iran D (http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran/US-Congress-hearings-on-Iran-nuclear-agreement-set-to-begin-409898) eal ------------------------------------------------------------ The US Congress begins its review of a nuclear agreement reached between world powers and Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, on Thursday. Hearings start in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where three principals of the Obama administration tasked with crafting the deal – US Secretary of State John Kerry, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew – plan to testify. They will also appear before the House Foreign Affairs Committee next week. Their review begins amid a multi-million dollar effort, from both opponents and advocates of the agreement, to influence the outcome of the congressional vote. The lawmakers now have the opportunity to vote to approve or disapprove of the deal within 56 days. ** Reuters ------------------------------------------------------------ ** After Labeling, EU Think-Tank Proposes Bank Steps (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/22/us-eu-israel-settlements-exclusive-idUSKCN0PW0VA20150722) ------------------------------------------------------------ The EU agreed this week to push ahead with introduction of labels that specifically identify Israeli goods made in settlements in the occupied West Bank, a policy that has angered Israel; but now an influential European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank is proposing going much further, including the targeting of Israeli banks. The new proposals would go much deeper and further, reaching into banking, loans and mortgages, qualifications earned in settlement institutions and the tax-exempt status of European charities that deal with Israeli settlements. European Union officials have talked in private about the steps that might follow labeling, but there are no formal EU proposals in the works at this stage. See also,“EU Differentiation and Israeli settlements” (ECFR) (http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/eu_differentiation_and_israeli_settlements3076) ** Ha’aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** U.S.: Netanyahu Would Reject any Nuclear Deal (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.667332) ------------------------------------------------------------ Senior administration officials in Washington said on Wednesday they had reached the conclusion that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not interested in any nuclear arrangement with Iran – except for one in which Tehran completely capitulates but is denied sanctions relief in return. “That is the logic of Israel’s criticism,” they said in a briefing with Haaretz. The officials also warned that the consequences of a decision by Congress to veto the Iran nuclear deal could be “potentially catastrophic,” strengthening Iran, weakening the US and limiting its ability to defend Israel. ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** AIPAC Girds for Rare High-Noon Showdown with WH (http://www.timesofisrael.com/aipac-girds-for-rare-high-noon-showdown-with-white-house/) ------------------------------------------------------------ It will be the DC equivalent of the showdown at the OK Corral. Stepping into the summer haze on Capitol Hill, the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee and its allies are set to face off against the ultimate power broker – 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue – backed up by a cadre of its allied groups. The lobbying showdown, over a Congressional vote on the nuclear deal with Iran, represents a rare moment for AIPAC, with the avowedly bipartisan organization publicly splitting with the sitting administration over a major foreign policy initiative. Even at the peak of tensions between the Obama administration and the Israeli government, the pro-Israel organization worked hard to keep its head above an ugly fray. AIPAC’s efforts at bipartisanship, and specifically at avoiding picking a fight with the president, extend back decades. For years, AIPAC has maintained a policy of remaining tight-lipped on budgetary face-offs, preferring to focus on completed deals and lobbying successes. ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** PM: ‘Better’ Iran Deal can still Fix ‘Historic Mistake’ ------------------------------------------------------------ Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday said an alternative nuclear deal with Iran that would curb the Islamic State’s aggression is still within reach, and railed against the agreement struck last week as a “historic mistake.” “No agreement is better than this bad agreement,” said Netanyahu, reiterating his denouncement of the accord struck July 14. “A better deal that would tie the lifting of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and would roll back Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — such a deal would be tied to ending Iran’s aggression and terrorism. That’s the real alternative,” he said. Netanyahu addressed the issue during a press conference with visiting Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who is on her first official visit to Israel since taking office in February. ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** US Imposes Sanctions on Hezbollah Leaders (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4682731,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ The US Treasury Department on Tuesday imposed sanctions on three leaders of the militant group Hezbollah and a businessman in Lebanon, saying they were key players in the group's military operations in Syria. "The United States will continue to aggressively target (Hezbollah) for its terrorist activities worldwide as well as its ongoing support to (Syrian President Bashar) Assad's ruthless military campaign in Syria," said Adam Szubin, the Treasury Department's acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have said they are troubled by support from Iran for regional proxy groups such as Hezbollah. A businessman in Lebanon, Abd Al Nur Shalan, was also sanctioned for procuring weapons for Hezbollah and shipping them to Syria, the Treasury Department said. ** Galey Tzahal ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Achievement to Opposition on Judges Selection Com. ------------------------------------------------------------ Judges Selection Committee: Last night the Knesset plenum elected MK Nurit Koren from the Likud and MK Robert Ilatov from Yisrael Beiteinu as in representatives in the Judges Selection Committee. MK Yisrael Eichler from the United Torah Judaism alliance and MK Revital Swid from the Zionist Union were chosen for the Rabbinical Judges Selection Committee. She surprisingly overtook the coalition’s candidate MK Nava Boker from the Likud. ** Washington Post - July 23, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** The Case for the Nuclear Deal with Iran (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-case-for-the-nuclear-deal-with-iran/2015/07/21/4b48980a-2fea-11e5-8f36-18d1d501920d_story.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ By John Kerry and Ernest Moniz When President Obama took office, he faced an Iran that had mastered the nuclear fuel cycle, had constructed a covert uranium enrichment facility inside a mountain, was on its way to installing nearly 20,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment, was developing advanced centrifuges and was building a heavy-water reactor that could produce weapons-grade plutonium. If Iran wanted to develop a nuclear weapon, it was already well down that road and the international community had little insight into its program. Against this backdrop the president vowed never to let Iran obtain a nuclear weapon. The deal reached in Vienna this month is not only the best way to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, it is the only durable and viable option for achieving this goal. This comprehensive diplomatic resolution has the unified support of the world’s leading powers. It extends the time Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapon, provides strong verification measures that give us ample time to respond if Iran chooses that path, and takes none of our options off the table. Specifically, the deal blocks each of Iran’s possible pathways to producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon: the highly enriched uranium and the plutonium production pathways, as well as the covert pathway. This deal is based on verification, not trust. Before obtaining significant relief from economic sanctions, Iran must roll back its enrichment, its research-and-development and its stockpile of enriched uranium. To preclude cheating, international inspectors will have unprecedented access to Iran’s declared nuclear facilities, any other sites of concern and its entire nuclear supply chain, from uranium production to centrifuge manufacturing and operation. If Iran fails to meet its responsibilities, sanctions will snap back into place, and no country can stop that from happening. If Iran tries to break out of the deal altogether, the world will have a longer time period — a year compared with two months — to respond before it could produce a bomb. We also will have the moral authority that comes from exhausting all diplomatic options. Is this a good deal for the United States and for global security? Consider the facts. Without this deal, Iran could double its capacity to enrich uranium in a short time. With it, it must reduce that capacity immediately and sharply. Without this deal, Iran could continue to rapidly develop advanced centrifuges. With it, its program will be significantly constrained. Without this deal, Iran could expand its existing stockpile of enriched uranium. With it, that stockpile will be reduced by 98 percent, and it will be capped at that level for 15 years. Iran will also be required to get rid of its 20 percent enriched uranium, which is most of the way to bomb material. Without this deal, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade plutonium each year for one to two nuclear weapons. With it, Iran will not produce any weapons-grade plutonium. Without this deal, Iran could take the steps necessary to produce a nuclear weapon. With it, Iran is prohibited from pursuing any of these steps. If the international community suspects that Iran is cheating, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can request access to any suspicious location. Much has been made about a possible 24-day delay before inspectors could gain access to suspected undeclared nuclear sites. To be clear, the IAEA can request access to any suspicious location with 24 hours’ notice under the Additional Protocol of the Nonproliferation Treaty, which Iran will implement under this deal. This accord does not change that baseline. In fact, the deal enhances it by creating a new mechanism to ensure that the IAEA gets the required access and sets a firm time limit to resolve access issues within 24 days. This mechanism provides an important tool for ensuring that Iran could not delay indefinitely. ** New York Times- July 23, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Backing Up Our Wager with Iran (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/22/opinion/thomas-friedman-backing-up-our-wager-with-iran.html?_r=0) ------------------------------------------------------------ By Thomas L. Friedman From the minute Iran detected that the U.S. was unwilling to use its overwhelming military force to curtail Tehran’s nuclear program — and that dates back to the George W. Bush administration, which would neither accept Iran’s right to a nuclear fuel cycle nor structure a military or diplomatic option to stop it — no perfect deal overwhelmingly favorable to America and its allies was ever going to emerge from negotiations with Iran. The balance of power became too equal. But there are degrees of imperfect, and the diplomatic option structured by the Obama team — if properly implemented and augmented by muscular diplomacy — serves core American interests better than any options I hear coming from the deal’s critics: It prevents Iran from producing the fissile material to break out with a nuclear weapon for 15 years and creates a context that could empower the more pragmatic forces inside Iran over time — at the price of constraining, but not eliminating, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and sanctions relief that will strengthen Tehran as a regional power. Supporting this deal doesn’t make you Neville Chamberlain; opposing it doesn’t make you Dr. Strangelove. Both sides have legitimate arguments. But having studied them, I believe America’s interests are best served now by focusing on how to get the best out of this deal and cushion the worst, rather than scuttling it. That would be a mistake that would isolate us, not Iran, and limit our choices to going to war or tolerating an Iran much closer to nuclear breakout, without any observers or curbs on the ground, and with crumbling sanctions. “The nuclear agreement is a deal, not a grand bargain,” argued the Wilson Center’s Robert Litwak, author of “Iran’s Nuclear Chess.” “Obama and Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei are each making a tacit bet. Obama is defending the deal in transactional terms (that it addresses a discrete urgent challenge), but betting that it will empower Iran’s moderate faction and put the country on a more favorable societal trajectory. Khamenei is making the opposite bet — that the regime can benefit from the transactional nature of the agreement (sanctions relief) and forestall the deal’s potentially transformational implications to preserve Iran’s revolutionary deep state.” We can, though, do things to increase the odds that the bet goes our way: 1. Don’t let this deal become the Obamacare of arms control, where all the energy goes into the negotiation but then the implementing tools — in this case the verification technologies — don’t work. President Obama should appoint a respected military figure to oversee every aspect of implementing this deal. 2. Congress should pass a resolution authorizing this and future presidents to use force to prevent Iran from ever becoming a nuclear weapons state. Iran must know now that the U.S. president is authorized to destroy — without warning or negotiation — any attempt by Tehran to build a bomb. 3. Focus on the Iranian people. The celebrations of this deal in Iran tell us that “the Iranian people want to be South Korea, not North Korea,” notes Karim Sadjadpour, Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment. We should reach out to them in every way — visas, exchanges and scholarships — to strengthen their voices. Visiting Iran taught me that Iranians have had enough Islamic fundamentalism to know they want less of it and they’ve had enough democracy to know they want more of it. (Iran’s hard-line Revolutionary Guards know this well, which is why they are still trying to persuade Iran’s supreme leader to reject this deal and its opening to the world.) 4. Avoid a black-and-white view of the Middle East. The idea that Iran is everywhere our enemy and the Sunni Arabs our allies is a mistake. Saudi Arabia’s leadership has been a steadfast U.S. ally in the Cold War; many Saudis are pro-American. But the Saudi leadership’s ruling bargain is toxic: It says to the Saudi people that the al-Saud tribe gets to rule and in return the Saudi Wahhabi religious establishment gets billions of dollars to transform the face of Sunni Islam from an open and modernizing faith to a puritanical, anti-women, anti-Shiite, anti-pluralistic one. The Saudis have lost control of this puritanical-Salafist transformation of Islam, and it has mutated into the ideology that inspired the 9/11 hijackers — 15 of 19 of whom were Saudis — and the Islamic State. Iran aided the U.S. in toppling the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and, at the same time, Tehran, and its cat’s paw, Hezbollah, have propped up the Syrian regime while it has perpetrated a genocide against its own people, mostly Syrian Sunnis. We need to confront Iran’s regional behavior when it contradicts our interests, but align with it when it comports with our interests. We want to balance the autocratic Sunnis and Shiites, not promote either. Neither share our values. Finally, when it comes to the Middle East broadly, we need to contain, amplify and innovate: Contain the most aggressive forces there, amplify any leaders or people building decency there, and innovate on energy like crazy to keep prices low, reduce oil money to bad actors and reduce our exposure to a region that is going to be in turmoil for a long, long, long time. ============================================================ S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 ** www.centerpeace.org (http://www.centerpeace.org) 2015 S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, All rights reserved. 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