EFTA01787854.pdf

From: Donald Rubin Sent: Thursday, December 8, 2016 12:43 AM To: jeffrey E. Subject: Re: Placebo effects, EB, etc. l'= speaking the Adriaan Tuiten tomorrow at 6:30 am our time, and l'=E204ol try to arrange a skype call. It cannot be tomorrow =ecause I'm in a deposition all day. On =ec 7, 2016, at 6:57 PM, Donald Rubin =rote: Sorry for the delay. Had meetings all day with a former =hD student and a current student. Not a silly question. I think =hat it has a lot to do with how data are collected and who summarizes =hem. With recorded data there is often a lot of rounding, =runcating, heaping (meaning on nice round numbers, as in age heaping), =nd "filtering" meaning by the data collector to avoid =eporting suspicious values that could lead to scorn. In some =ontexts we also have scores that are averages of many values or =ffects, which push toward the gaussian by the CLT; for example, I =sed to work at ETS, and exams are notorious for those effects. =nbsp;Theoretical distributions like the Cauchy are almost always just =pproximations because machines or people cannot record data with an =nfinite number of places. I think your question is relatively =eep with a variety of answers depending on the context and could change =s we get better at recording data. :) On Dec 7, 2016, at 12:52 PM, jeffrey E. [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]» wrote: query, why are so many distributions in nature =o consistent and accurate. doesnt it give you pause. =nbsp;. like centrigal force. not a true force but =ne we sense. many distributions could be describeds as =seudo forces pushing the tails toward the mean.. . could =ravity be one of these pseudo type forces pushing things towards = distribution.?? not as silly a question as it first might =ppear to be . :) On Wed, Dec 7, 2016 at 1:47 PM, Donald Rubin > wrote: Think =0. Where will you be? On Dec =, 2016, at 12:25 PM, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: ar you around on the =eekend in cambridge.? On Wed, Dec 7, 2016 at 1:10 PM, rote: EFTA_R1_00111692 EFTA01787854  OK. I'll get back to you after = make contact with Adriaan again, and my plans settle a bit. On Dec 7, 2016, at 10:38 AM, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: three way skype for and yes 1face to face On Wed, =ec 7, 2016 at 11:37 AM, Donald Rubin wrote: Different ways to follow up. 1. The next time =hat we're in the same town, we could talk about the statistical =deal underlying ways to disentangle placebo effects from biological =ffects of drugs and why that's important for FDA approvals and =or prescripts in the docs office — different answers, I =hink. 2. = can send some recent things on the topic of placebo response, which =re still not that wonderfully written. 3. If interested in exploring =nvesting in EB, I can put you in touch with Adriaan, who lives in =msterdam. Are =ny of these appealing? I prefer 1 to 2. I think a face to =ace version of 3 could be arranged either here or there. Let me =now. On Dec 7, 2016, at 9:35 AM, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: I'm always interested in unique idea On =ed, Dec 7, 2016 at 10:12 AM Donald Rubin wrote: Hello Jeffrey, I'm glad that Martin has put us in touch for a couple =f reasons. First, I think we have some mutual interests =oncerning the complications of doing experiments with humans, rather =han plants or animals or tires. One complication is noncompliance =ith the assigned treatment, which we briefly discussed at the dinner, =ut the more interesting one is the placebo effect, which can be =igantic, for example in "viagra" type studies, which we =idn't get around to discussing except indirectly in the context =f the Emotional Brain (EB) female viagra issue. More generally, this is related to FDA standards for =pproving drugs. A slight aside: in January I'm one of =hree people getting honorary degrees from the Medical Faculty of the =niversity of 2 EFTA_R1_00111693 EFTA01787855 Uppsala in Sweden, where one of the others is Robert =aliff, the current Commissioner of the FDA (the other is Marcia McNutt, =he current President of the National Academy of Sciences), so I should =et the chance to bend his ear at various meals (a former commissioner =E2404, under Bush II — was a partial PhD student of mine when =e was getting his MD at Harvard and his PhD in Econ at MIT, and remains = good friend: Mark McClellen, who is interested in this stuff and =emains quite influential in DC, I think). But the reason for rambling about the FDA and placebo effects =s the following. This morning I just had an exchange of emails =ith the CEO of EB, whom I've known and worked with for about =hree years, Adriaan Tuiten. He wrote that FDA has agreed with =B's proposal for more trials, and the EB board of directors =ust approved the issuance of about 12 million Euros in stock to pay for =hese trials. Adriaan thinks that they may have enough connections =ow, but would you be interested in participating? I already have =ome stock, which I earned though consulting. I think EB is =nteresting but still needs more wisdom when it comes to their =tatistics (I've been to FDA with them two or three times, and I =hink they still need help with some of their ideas e.g., using =NPs). If interested in tossing some money their way, let me =now. In any case, I very much enjoyed our last conversations, and = look forward to seeing you again, either in Cambridge or in NYC, which =11 probably get to in the next couple of weeks. Best wishes, Don Donald B. Rubin John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics Department of Statistics, Harvard University On Dec 2, 2016, at 9:41 AM, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> =rote: great On Fri, Dec 2, 2016 at 9:40 AM, Donald Rubin <mailto > wrote: Great, thanks Martin. =ometime when I get to NYC, which I often do to visit Columbia =onnections, I'd like to be in touch, and give Jeffery more =ectures in statistics — I think he has some potential! 3 EFTA_R1_00111694 EFTA01787856  Also, Martin, should we try to =ouch base on Monday? The rest of the week is pretty much shot for =e with visitors. Best, Don > On Dec 2, 2016, at 9:32 =M, Nowak, Martin A. anailto > wrote: > Don , Jeffrey > I would like to put you in =irect email contact. > also cc Lesley. >m 4 EFTA_R1_00111695 EFTA01787857  please note The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved please note The information contained in this =ommunication is confidential, may be attorney-client =rivileged, may constitute inside information, and is =ntended only for the use of the addressee. It is the =roperty of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure =r copying of this 5 EFTA_R1_00111696 EFTA01787858  communication or any part thereof is =trictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have =eceived this communication in error, please notify us =mmediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this =ommunication and all copies thereof, including all =ttachments. copyright -all rights reserved please note The information contained in this =ommunication is confidential, may be attorney-client =rivileged, may constitute inside information, and is =ntended only for the use of the addressee. It is the =roperty of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure =r copying of this communication or any part thereof is =trictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have =eceived this communication in error, please notify us =mmediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this =ommunication and all copies thereof, including all =ttachments. copyright -all rights reserved please note The information contained in this =ommunication is confidential, may be attorney-client =rivileged, may constitute inside information, and is =ntended only for the use of the addressee. It is the =roperty of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure =r copying of this communication or any part thereof is =trictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have =eceived this communication in error, please notify us =mmediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this =ommunication and all copies thereof, including all =ttachments. copyright -all rights reserved 6 EFTA_R1_00111697 EFTA01787859 7 EFTA_R1_00111698 EFTA01787860