EFTA02567340.pdf

From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Sent: Friday, March 15, 2013 5:32 PM To: Barrett, Paul S Subject: Re: Interesting angle on KRW and KRW autos ok On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 1:08 PM, Barre=t, Paul S < > wrote: 2MM?=/p> <=p> <=p> <=p> =span style="font-size:8.0ptfont-family:"Verdana","sans- s=rif";color:#5f5f5r> =span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-s=rif";color:#5f5f5f">Paul Barrett=I Managing Director Global Investment Opportunities Group I J.P. Morgan Private =ank I 320 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY=10022 I T: I F: <mailto > I NMLS ID# 853441 <=p> From: Jeffrey =pstein Imailto:[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> I Sent: Friday, March 15, 2013 10:16 AM To: Barrett, Paul S Subject: Re: Interesting angle on KRW and KRW autos </=> ok On Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 10:12 AM, Barrett, Paul S <mailto > wrote: Jeffrey EFTA_R1_01733635 EFTA02567340  Based on our view that the KRW will weaken given what is going on in Jap=n, we should consider a total return swap to get long the Auto and Transpo=t sector (see what happened to Japanese auto names recently on the back of=JPY weakness) •• • EVENT: Today's dovish Bank of Korea meeting, Korean Won br=aking 200d MA Exhibit 1: Korean Won (red) vs. Korea's Transport Eqmt Sector (white)<=> =A0 •• • Korean Won next currency to weaken: Buy Korean Autos / Transport Equ=pmt (FIFW KOSPTREQ Index GP <GO>). The sector is very liquid and tra=es USD 300m per day. =AO =AO ••* The second stage of the Yen devaluation could force other Asian coun=ries to weaken their own currencies too. In 1994, regional central banks j=st 'watched' when China devalued their own currency - only to se= their export competitiveness being challenged {FIFW CNY Curncy GP M <GO>}. This inactivity will likely not happen =gain. =AO =A0 ••• Today, the KRW {FIFW KRW Curncy GP <GO>) broke the 1100 lev=l and USD / KRW trades above its 200-day moving average - for the first time =ince July 2012. In our view, many market participants have not paid attent=on to this - yet - but closer analysis of today's dovish BoK meeting might change this ** • Interestingly, inflation pressure has clearly eased. CPI (FIFW=KOCPIYOY Index GPC W <GO>) halved over the last 12 months to just 1.=%. Compare this to the overnight call rate of 2.75%. {FIFW KOCPIYO= Index KOCRD Index GR <GO>). Based on Bank of Korea's dovish policy meeting an April rate cut (April 11) is =uite possible, in my view - especially as it would increase the competitive vs. Yen weakness.=/u> Exhibit 2: CPI in Korea (red) is far below Korea's overnight call rate=(white) — rate cut possible =AO =AO =AO =A0 *** (FIFW KOSPTREQ Index WGT <GO>) for sector weights.</=> =AO =AO =A0 2 EFTA_R1_01733636 EFTA02567341  Regards, </=> <1=> Paul Barrett I Managing Director I Global Investment Opportunities Group I J.P. Morgan Private Bank 320 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York,=NY 10022 I T: I =1: > I <mailto > I NMLS IN 853441 </=> </=> This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and cond=tions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy=and completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege= and legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email <http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disdosures/email> . ****** ***** ************** ******* ***** ***************** ***** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditi=ns including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy an= completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, a=d legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/=isclosures/email <http://www.jpmorgan.co=/pages/disclosures/email> . 3 EFTA_R1_01733637 EFTA02567342 The information containe= in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileg=d, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the a=dressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, di=closure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictl= prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, p=ease notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], =nd destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachm=nts. copyright -all rights reserved 4 EFTA_R1_01733638 EFTA02567343