EFTA01375009.pdf

Deutsche Bank APPENDIX: Deutsche Bank Ti rkiye - History and forecasts 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F National Income Nominal GDP (USDbn) 392.2 482.7 529.3 646.4 730.6 614.4 731.5 774.7 788.6 823.0 795.9 692.0 653.7 Population (mn) 67.7 68.6 69.4 70.2 71.1 72.1 73.0 74.0 74.9 75.8 76.8 77.8 78.7 GDP per capita (USD) 5 792 7 040 7 627 9 206 10 277 8 527 10021 10 476 10 531 10 853 10366 8899 8301 Real GDP (Youth) 9.4 8.4 6.9 4.7 0.7 • 4.8 9.2 8.8 2.1 4.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 Private Consumption 11.0 7.9 4.6 5.5 -0.3 -2.3 6.7 7.7 -0.5 5.1 1.4 3.7 3.4 Government constriction 6.0 2.5 8.4 6.5 1.7 7.8 2.0 4.7 6.1 6.5 4.7 7.0 3.7 Gross Fixed Investment 28.4 17.4 13.3 al -6.2 - 19.0 30.5 18.0 - 2.7 4.4 -1.3 4.2 1.9 Exports 11.2 7.9 6.6 7.3 2.7 -5.0 3.4 7.9 16.3 -0.2 6.8 -1.6 2.9 Imports 20.8 12.2 6.9 10.7 -4.1 - 14.3 20.7 10.7 -0.4 9.0 -0.2 1.5 4.4 Prices, Money and Banking (YoY%) CPI (eop) 9.4 7.7 9.7 8.4 10.1 6.5 6.4 10.4 6.2 7.4 8.2 8.6 8.2 CPI (period avg) 8.6 8.2 9.6 8.8 10.4 6.3 8.6 6.5 8.9 7.5 8.9 7.7 8.0 Broad money (eop) 22.9 23.2 24.7 15.7 26.7 13.0 19.1 14.8 10.2 22.2 11.9 10.7 11.1 Private Credit (eop) 56.7 55.1 40.8 27.1 22.4 9.7 44.7 34.7 18.5 33.3 19.3 19.1 16.8 Fiscal Accounts (% of GDP) Overall balance -5.4 -1.3 -0.6 -1.6 • 1.8 -5.5 -3.6 -1.3 -2.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -2.3 Revenue 19.8 21.3 22.9 22.6 22.0 22.6 23.1 22.8 23.4 24.8 24.4 23.7 22.8 Expenditure 25.2 22.5 23.5 24.2 23.8 28.1 26.7 24.1 25.4 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.1 Primary Balance 5.5 5.1 4.6 3.6 3.5 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.5 External Accounts (USD bn) Goods Exports 68.8 78.5 93.8 115.4 140.9 109.7 121.0 142.4 161.9 161.8 168.9 155.3 167.7 Goods Imports 91.3 111.4 134.7 1622 193.8 134.5 1773 231.6 227.3 241,7 232.5 202.9 217.3 Trade Balance - 22.4 - 32.9 - 40.9 - 46.8 - 52.9 - 248 - 56.3 -892 - 65.4 -79.9 -63.6 -47.6 -49.5 % of GDP • 5.7 -6.8 -7/ -7.2 -7.3 -4.0 -7.7 • 11.5 -8.3 • 9.7 -8.0 -6.9 -7.6 Current Account Balance - 14.2 - 21.4 - 31.8 - 37.8 - 40.2 - 12.0 - 45.3 - 75.0 - 48.5 - 64/ -465 -33.7 -35.7 % of GDP -3.6 -4.4 -6.0 -5.8 -5.7 -2.0 -6.2 -9.7 -6.2 -7.9 -5.8 -4.9 -5.5 FDI (net) 2.0 9.0 19.3 19.9 17.3 7.0 7.6 13.8 9.2 8.8 5.5 8.0 7.1 FX Reserves (eop) 36.0 50.5 60.9 73.3 71.0 70.7 807 78.5 99.9 110.9 106.9 96.0 95.5 USID/FX (eop) 1.35 1.35 1,42 1.17 1.51 1.51 1.55 1.91 1.79 2.14 2.32 3.14 3.39 Debt Indicators (% of GDP) Government Debt 59.2 52.3 46.1 38.8 40.0 46.3 43.1 39.9 37.6 37.4 35.0 36.5 36.2 Domestic 42.4 38.7 33.5 29.4 28.9 34.6 32.1 28.4 27.3 25.7 23.7 22.7 22.7 External 16.8 13.6 12.6 9.3 11.1 11.7 11.0 11.5 10.3 11.7 11.3 13.8 13.4 External debt 41.1 35.4 39.3 38.7 38.5 43.8 39.9 39.2 43.0 47.3 50.6 59.4 64.3 in USD bn 161 171 208 250 281 269 292 304 339 389 402.4 410.8 420.0 Short-term (% of total) 20.0 22.8 20.6 17.3 18.7 18.2 26.5 26.9 29.6 33.5 33.0 30.0 27.5 General (ann. avg) Industrial Production (YoY%) 9.8 5.4 7.3 8.6 - 1.1 - 10.4 12.4 9.6 2.4 3.5 3.5 2.9 2.9 Unemployment (%) 10.3 10.3 9.1 9.2 10.0 13.0 11.2 9.2 8.4 9.1 10.0 11.0 11.2 Source: Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank R:._' r 37 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0070040 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00216224 EFTA01375009