EFTA01458628.pdf

11 September 2015 Asset Allocation • The commodity pike declines underway shoe 2011 have been primarily a reflection of the rising dollar and a correction of overvaluation not slower global growth grading The Commodity Underperformance Cycle, Apr 2013). We expect the dollar to remain the primary driver of the complex and while we expect the dollar pause to continue near-term the dollar up cycle has further to run medium term. Oil is a little above fair value currently while gold and especially industrial metals remain expensive and should remain under pressure even if the dollar remains flat. Strong trend-like underlying earnings growth is consistent with trend like global GDP growth; low headline growth reflects Impact of past dollar and oil price moves. Attention has continued to focus on the weak headline earnings growth in the US. However, adjusted for the impacts of oil price declines and the higher dollar, underlying earnings growth in Q3 remained robust across all of DM: US (10.6%); Europe (7.4%) and Japan (29.4%). Unless the declines in oil prices and appreciation in the dollar continue at the extreme pace of the last year, the drags will subside as a matter of arithmetic and earnings growth will converge to the 8-10% underlying rate prevailing for the last 2 years. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118625 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264809 EFTA01458628