EFTA01452634.pdf

28 January 2014 Brokers. Asset Managers & Exchanges Alternative Asset Manager Initiation Figure 16 shows we expect the strongest DE growth in 2014 for BX, followed by CG and over this realization cycle (defined loosely as 2012-16), we expect BX and CG to generate the strongest CAGRs, with OAK also growing at a double-digit pace. Figure 17 shows our forecasts on an ENI basis, which is comparable to Consensus. figure 16: DB DE Forecasts for the Alts CB Annual OE per unit estimates Alts 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E AFO $1.84 $3.82 $3.22 $2.70 $2.24 BX $0.93 $1.40 $2.33 $2.91 $2.98 CG $2.00 $2.11 $2.84 $3.38 53.72 KKR $2.05 $2.01 $1.99 $2.09 $2.19 OAK $3.82 $5.70 $5.14 $5.40 $5.80 Growth rates of CB CE estimates CAGR Alts 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2012-16E APO 107.0% -15.6% -16.2% -16.8% 5.0% SX 51.0% 66.1% 24.9% 2.7% 33.9% CG 5.5% 34.3% 19.2% 10 0% 16.8% KKR -2.5% -1.2% 5.0% 5.2% 1.6% OAK 49.1% -9.8% 5.0% 7.5% 11.0% Median 49.1% -1.2% 5.0% 5.2% 11.0% Seine CriCany mteCt en< Ct.:acne San. [Figure IT DB ENI Forecasts for the Alts OBAnnualENI per unit estimates Alts 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E AFO $3.82 $4.55 $2.50 $2.32 $2.40 BX $1.77 $2.56 $3.09 $3.24 $2.79 CG $2.04 $2.84 $2.70 $2.89 $2.84 KKR $2.90 $2.87 $2.33 $2.33 $2.32 OAK $4.06 $5.92 $4.36 $4.67 $5.02 Growth rates of CS 90 estimates CAGR Alts 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2012-16E AR) 19.1% -45.0% -7.4% 3.4% -11.0% BX 451% 20.6% 4.7% -13.8% 12.1% CG 39.4% -5.1% 7.1% -1.8% 8.8% KKR -1.1% -18.8% 0.0% -0.4% -5.4% OAK 45.7% -26.3% 7.0% 7.7% 5.5% Median 39.4% 48.8% 4.7% MA% 5.5% SOINCOU arrow nopans and w..eo atm Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 19 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0109786 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY GM_00255970 EFTA01452634