podesta_email_00450.txt

podesta-emails 3,103 words email

P17 D6 V11 V16 P20

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Monday, December 21 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/December-21.pdf) Headlines: * Rockets Fired into Northern Israel After Air Strike Kills Kuntar * Israel Completes Final Missile Defense System Test * Israeli Policy Shift: IDF Returning Palestinian Assailants’ Bodies * Ministry’s Doll Initiative Under Fire * Israeli Arab Cell Set Up Terror Infrastructure in East Jerusalem * Protesters Demand Shin Bet Stop Abusing Jewish Prisoners * Turkey Demands Israel Meet Terms to Normalize Relations * Erdogan Meets Hamas Leader Mashaal in Istanbul Commentary: * Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Calculated Strike” - By Alex Fishman, Military Analyst, Yedioth Ahronoth * Al-Monitor: “What’s Next for Middle East Peace?” - By Uri Savir, Honorary President, Peres Center for Peace ** BICOM ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Rockets Fired into Northern Israel After Air Strike Kills Kuntar (http://www.bicom.org.uk/news-article/27981/) ------------------------------------------------------------ Three rockets were fired into northern Israel yesterday, in what was thought to be a revenge attack following the death of notorious Hezbollah-affiliated terrorist Samir Kuntar overnight Sunday. Three rockets landed in open spaces near the towns of Shlomi and Nahariya, where public bomb shelters were opened. No injuries or damage was reported. Media reports say that the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine was behind the firing. Israel shelled targets in southern Lebanon in response. The rocket fire was thought to be symbolic retribution for the death of arch-terrorist Samir Kuntar, who was killed in an early Sunday morning air strike on a suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus. See also, “Commander of Hezbollah Freed by Israel is Killed in Syria” (The New York Times) (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/21/world/middleeast/samir-kuntar-hezbollah-syria-israel.html?_r=0) ** ABC News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israel Completes Final Missile Defense System Test (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-completes-final-missile-defense-system-test-35882764) ------------------------------------------------------------ Israel said Monday it had successfully completed the final test of a joint U.S.-Israeli missile defense system before it is expected to become operational next year. The Defense Ministry said the David's Sling system had successfully intercepted targets in a series of tests conducted with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, calling it the "final milestone." David's Sling is intended to counter medium-range missiles possessed by enemies throughout the region, most notably the Hezbollah (http://abcnews.go.com/topics/news/world/hezbollah.htm) . The system also aims to protect against low-altitude cruise missiles fired from longer distances. ** Ha'aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israeli Policy Shift: IDF Returning Palestinian Assailants’ Bodies (http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.692942) ------------------------------------------------------------ After the security cabinet decided not to return the bodies of Palestinians killed while perpetrating terror attacks, Israel changed its course. On Friday, Hadil Awad’s body, a 14-year-old Palestinian girl who was killed after carrying out a stabbing attack, was returned to her family. Since then, two bodies have been handed over—one was Mohannad al-Okbi who opened fire in the Be’er Sheva Bus Station. According to family members, police told them to sign documents pledging they would only hold a small funeral. Israel stopped the process of returning bodies of terrorists to families after Hebron funerals became demonstrations attended by thousands. Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said two months ago that if the funerals were quiet, Israel would return the bodies of perpetrators. See also, “Israel Returns Body of Failed Stabber Rasha Awissi” (Times of Israel) (http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-returns-body-of-failed-stabber-rasha-awissi/) ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Ministry’s Doll Initiative Under Fire (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4741799,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Israeli Ambassador to Finland Dan Ashbel on Saturday criticized Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely's decision to distribute examples of dolls used to incite against Israel to all Israeli embassies, the idea being to demonstrate Palestinian demonization of Israel. Ashbel compared the initiative to distributing marijuana at every police station in order to permit them to demonstrate the dangers. Hotovely's approach is meant to show that Palestinian incitement is pervasive even among the smallest children. ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israeli Arab Cell Set Up Terror Infrastructure in East Jerusalem (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Israeli-Arab-cell-set-up-grassroots-terror-infrastructure-in-east-Jerusalem-437947) ------------------------------------------------------------ A cell of Israel Arabs from the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Ras al-Amud involved in multiple instances of rock and Molotov cocktail throwing attacks has been arrested, Shin Bet announced Monday. The suspects directed their attacks against security forces and Jewish civilians in Ras al-Amud near the Mount of Olives cemetery. Islam Najar, 18, and Hamza Najar, 22, two brothers from Ras al-Amud were arrested by Shin Bet in October. The interrogation of the pair uncovered that they were involved in a number of Molotov cocktail and stone-throwing attacks directed against security forces. The investigation also revealed that the two minors took part in the burning of an Egged bus in September (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Israeli-bus-ablaze-after-Molotov-cocktail-attack-none-injured-416515) along with other members of the local terror infrastructure. The suspects described how they poured gasoline on the front of the bus and set it on fire after the driver fled the scene. ** Arutz Sheva ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Protesters Demand Shin Bet Stop Abusing Jewish Prisoners (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/205153#.VngFd5MrLBI) ------------------------------------------------------------ Hundreds of protesters have gathered outside the house of Shin Bet head Yoram Cohen, demanding the release of the Duma suspects. They are carrying signs reading "Jews don't torture Jews," and "Prosecutors stop persecuting." Four protesters were detained by authorities, then released several minutes later. The lawyers for the suspects, who are accused of arson and murder in the Arab village of Duma, held a press conference last week in which the declared it to be "a sad day for the justice system and the rule of law…Senior officers in the Shin Bet entered the interrogation room and used methods of torture and physical violence against a minor." See also, “Hundreds Outside Shin Bet Chief’s House Protect ‘Torture’ of Jewish Suspects” (Ha'aretz) (http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.692761) ** Ma'ariv ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Turkey Demands Israel Meet Terms to Normalize Relations ------------------------------------------------------------ Turkey is insisting on its demands in the effort to normalize relations with Israel. This includes a demand that Israel lift the siege on the Gaza Strip, apologize for the Mavi Marmara incident, and compensate the victims of the incident and their families. A spokesman for the ruling party in Ankara said at a press conference last night that Israel had only met one term until now, the apology. He added that the work to articulate the draft of the reconciliation agreement between the countries was still in progress and noted that there was no doubt that Israel and its citizens were friends of Turkey. See also, “Turkish Official: Israel is Turkey’s Friend” (Arutz Sheva) (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/205222#.VngOuZMrLfY) ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Erdogan Meets Hamas Leader Mashaal in Istanbul (http://www.timesofisrael.com/erdogan-hamas-leader-mashaal-meet-in-istanbul/) ------------------------------------------------------------ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Istanbul on Saturday, according to presidential sources who spoke to the Turkish media. During the meeting the Hamas politburo chief, who is based in Qatar, informed Erdogan of “recent developments in the Middle East,” the reports said. No other details about the meeting at Istanbul’s Yildiz Palace were immediately available. The encounter was timed just days after Israel unveiled a series of steps to revive ties with Turkey that have been discussed in clandestine negotiations with Ankara. ** Yedioth Ahronoth – December 21, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** A Calculated Strike ------------------------------------------------------------ By Alex Fishman Either this was a necessary preemptive strike on a ticking bomb or someone took a calculated risk—and erred. We’ll know the answer within a few days, or possibly even within a few hours. Only then will we know whether the rockets that were fired at the western Galilee—apparently by a Palestinian organization—were a token and perfunctory reaction, or whether they herald the beginning of another round of violence along the northern border. In January this year, in the wake of the assassination of Jihad Mughniyah and an Iranian general on the Golan, we were very close to a military conflagration on the northern front. After a brief bloody round in which two IDF soldiers were killed, both Israel and Hezbollah gritted their teeth and stopped, since their vested interests prevented the situation from continuing to deteriorate. Will that be the case this time as well? The Northern Command has been on a heightened state of alert for the past two days in any event. Hezbollah’s top brass has probably spent the last few hours engaged in situation assessments with a view to its future actions. Hezbollah is subject to popular pressure, and developments that might unfold during Kuntar’s funeral, which is to be held today in Beirut, could influence the situation along the border. Samir Kuntar—notwithstanding his status as a symbol and his heinous past—was no Imad Mughniyah. Despite having been defined by the US administration as an international terrorist, in comparison to Hezbollah’s chief of staff [Imad Mughniyah] who was assassinated in Damascus in 2008, he was only a small fish in the sea of regional terrorism. There had to have been an exceptionally good reason for someone to take the risk, to squander the credit that was given us to operate in Syria and to order a targeted killing operation against that man in the suburbs of Damascus. The only reason that could have justified his assassination in the Syrian capital—which is under the protection of the Russian air-defense umbrella, at the center of which is the S-400 missile system that has a radar range that covers large parts of Israel—would have been “concrete” intelligence about a terror attack that was to be carried out in the immediate future. In a sane defense policy, revenge would not be an acceptable reason for Kuntar’s assassination. Had Israel wanted to kill Kuntar either as an act of revenge, in order to send a signal to the Iranians and Hezbollah or to impress upon the security prisoners that a return to terrorism after being released in a prisoner exchange deal comes with a lethal price, there were dozens of opportunities to have done that since his release from prison in 2008. Regardless of whether Israel was behind the strike or not, before any operation in Syria, the defense minister needs to ask his intelligence officers whether the operation in question is going to cross Hezbollah’s red lines so that it is forced to retaliate in a way that might lead to a conflagration along the northern border. That is a key question since the Israeli interest is for Hezbollah to continue to bleed in Syria for many years to come and to be weakened without any Israeli involvement. Hezbollah’s behavior up until now indicated that as long as its weapons were struck on Syrian soil, it accepted those attacks as being fair play. Alternatively, when Jihad Mughniyah was killed, we almost ended up with a military conflagration in the north on our hands. But Kuntar’s status within Hezbollah is radically different. While he served as a symbol in the ongoing fight to release security prisoners held by Israel and was a popular hero of sorts, Hezbollah withdrew its patronage from him about a year ago. Kuntar nevertheless continued to pursue his military efforts independently, under the guidance of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Damascus. It was not only Hezbollah that turned its back on Kuntar, but the regime in Damascus came to regard his activity in Syria as a threat to Assad’s interests, since he was liable to drag Israel into a direct conflagration with Syria. The fact that both the Syrians and Hezbollah took exception to Kuntar’s activity might serve to curb a possible deterioration. The Russian presence in Syria is also a moderating factor, and might make Hezbollah respond with more restraint. A conflagration with Israel will not serve the Russian interests in Syria. If Israel was behind the Kuntar assassination, as the Syrians and Lebanese claim, the Russians—given their technological capabilities—knew about that operation in real time. The fact is that Moscow has remained silent, just as it ignored three similar cases of attacks in Syria that were ascribed to Israel. Samir Kuntar apparently was under very close observation. Otherwise, the targeted killing operation that was carried out with such impressive success could not have been pulled off. Intelligence of that kind, which enabled his precise location to be determined and for missiles to be fired when no innocent civilians were in the vicinity, is not something that one stumbles upon by chance. It is the product of painstaking and very professional intelligence work. Kuntar was killed in a building in Damascus that served, according to sources in Syria, not only as a residence for his men, but also as the operations center of his organization. According to those reports, Kuntar’s spokesman and driver were killed as well, while several other members of his organization were injured. It looks like this was a golden opportunity to deliver a death blow to Samir Kuntar’s organization. Now the ball is in Hezbollah’s court. Alex Fishman is a military analyst for Yedioth Ahronoth. ** Al-Monitor – December 20, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** What’s Next for Middle East Peace? (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/12/obama-administration-president-options-two-state-solution.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ By Uri Savir US Secretary of State John Kerry came back from his recent trip to Jerusalem and Ramallah (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Kerry-calls-Palestinian-attacks-terrorism-that-must-be-condemned-435167) on Nov. 24 empty-handed and, for the first time for this extreme optimist, completely disillusioned with the stalled Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. He found Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even more rejectionist than before, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas weaker and more depressed. A senior US State Department official dealing with the Middle East described to Al-Monitor the current situation in very bleak terms. President Barack Obama’s administration is fearing that the lack of any horizon of hope for the Palestinians will turn the current chaotic violence into a more organized and violent intifada. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the State Department official complained about the state of relations between Washington and Jerusalem: "The policy gap (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/israel-us-netanyahu-obama-bilateral-relations-damage-repair.html) vis-a-vis the Netanyahu government is of a strategic nature. The prime minister sees the use of force as a necessary policy option in any regional crisis. The Obama administration sees the use of force as a last option, to be used only after serious diplomacy is exhausted. This was the case when negotiating the Iran deal. Now that the International Atomic Energy Agency has issued its report (https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov-2015-68.pdf) on Dec. 2 and concluded that, since 2009, Iran was not actively developing (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-board-adopts-landmark-resolution-iran-pmd-case) nuclear weapons, many in the administration ask what would have happened if the Republicans and Netanyahu would have had the upper hand in the congressional debate?” This, according to the source, is analogous to the past debate on the war in Iraq. Netanyahu backed then-President George W. Bush in the decision to go to war in the conviction that it would put an end to terrorism. The opposite was true; the Islamic State was born out of that war. The conceptual differences between Obama and Netanyahu on the Palestinian issue are of a similar nature. At the same time, the senior State Department official said that Abbas was not forthcoming during Kerry’s visit, conveying a sense of growing isolation and weakness within the Palestinian Authority. Given this situation, State Department Middle East policy analysts are deliberating what positions and measures to take in order to stabilize the volatile situation on the ground and set a policy platform for a future two-state solution (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/fr/contents/articles/originals/2015/11/unilateral-moves-palestinian-authority-norway-oslo-security.html) . According to the senior official, a variety of policy options are being considered. The first option is a UN Security Council resolution on the renewal of negotiations with binding terms of references. Talks were held between US and French officials (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/us-john-kerry-france-laurent-fabius-observers-temple-mount.html) about such an eventuality. The French, together with New Zealand, are contemplating presenting a resolution to the Security Council that would base negotiations on a two-state solution on the 1967 lines for the border, with a timeline of two to three years for negotiations and implementation. Obama is very much opposed in principle to using the veto right, as he believes in compromise through collective diplomacy. In this case, according to the senior official, the administration has not yet made up its mind. It is possible that it will abstain from its veto right if the language of the resolution includes policy components in Israel’s favor regarding security measures and the recognition between two nation-states in order to end the conflict. Such positions are not acceptable to the Palestinians and the Arab countries. The veto, said the source, will eventually depend on the specific wording of the resolution. A second option being considered is a written document that will consist of the content of the framework agreement proposal (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/kerry-peace-security-israel-palestine-netanyahu-facilitate.html) that Kerry conveyed in his talks to the parties in April 2014, which refers to the border being based on the 1967 lines with mutual land swaps, security agreements, a security zone along the Jordan River, a Palestinian capital in the East Jerusalem area, the recognition of Israel as the Jewish homeland, a just and agreed solution to the Palestinian refugee issue, and an end to the conflict and claims with the normalization of relations between the Arab states and Israel based on the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. Such a document would be conveyed to the parties and the Middle East Quartet as an American terms of reference for future negotiations. Another option that is on the American discussion table is a presidential policy speech referring to the same policy positions of the framework proposals. It would serve as a framework for future negotiations — “the Obama framework.” These possible American positions may seem futile, given the volatile situation in the region. Yet they are of significant importance — any of the three possibilities — to create a policy bridge to the next American presidency, whether he or she is a Democrat or a Republican. Uri Savir has spent his professional life working on the strategies of peacemaking in Israel. In 1996, he established the Peres Center for Peace and is currently the center's honorary president. ============================================================ S. 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