EFTA01449269.pdf

Deutsche Bank a 78 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives G10 Capital Flows and Basic Balance Monitor United States (USD bn) Figure 1: The basic balance is on a recovery path over Figure 2: as non treasury portfolio outflows have the last one year remain positive 203 — Bsso Biro. 4.75 800 - - nes Bads, 800 µ.t sse.euews suislo ins 100 usoivx RA La' 4.70 600 - Eataia 600 4.66 0 460 400 400 -100 4.65 200 200 -200 4.50 0 0 300 4.45 400 440 400 -200 Net lotennUS nnowsleti. US 4 35 .500 400 -403 Tress usenmnue thetradebelarc•Z‘V 430 -600 12m 44cl-ranted) 4.26 400 -COO 7t0 420 400 -800 63 00 02 04 1:6 08 10 12 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 06 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 • Figure 3: The private basis balance has been diverging Figure 4:as official inflows become significant from the overall balance 20C - ;Ci 200 65 —lietOfficill'unnesof 160 100 - 100 USD Bn 034•0110 Boss 55 0 0 SUMS( Putehansof Agency BO MO 144 100 .100 400 45 60 400 .2C0 35 403 -303 0 25 40) 4% -60 -50) Pine Bars Baas 15 400 —arise Bas Banos .600 6 -100 .703 -700 .5 -150 93 96 97 99 01 03 Ch 07 09 11 13 70 0082 IS 66 00 90 92 94 96 80 00 02 04 06 00 10 12 Figure 5: Official inflows inversely correlated with Figure 6: Relative to the private basic balance, the private inflows since the late 1990s dollar is expensive 820 200 4 e0 620 USD Bn. 100 USD Bn IS 820 - 620 4.60 11•4 Mimi Flows 0 420• - 420 400 Not Pnesee nanlessulyiess 4.40 320• - 320 .200 400 220• - 220 4.20 ACC 120 - 120 -500 — Pin. Bs* Bfl 20 -80 "x—rrr•--i-t4L - ai41/ P 20 -60 400 •700 —U1M.14161 , Feted UST Press BanoBeenceeiles) V 4.00 3.83 788002 84 86 88 90 92 94 469800020406031012 £0949696979899 000102 03 04 051160708091011 12 13 festeCt 08e SStn se0 sae Sous O8FX 'Won" std ux Noss Page 18 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104606 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250790 EFTA01449269