EFTA01451026.pdf

II December 2013 GEM Equity Strategy Outlook 2014 ..-...-. Figure 6: Total return of selected emerging market equity indices since 1 May 2013, USD lotte,', // • since May I • May 1 to trough OICaTertalatrirdmiclowen011somber2013 SmodirDouliemainkbeembeepArenoto 3. Potential for lower oil prices; Will 2014 finally be the year when oil prices, ex-WTI, finally break down through their narrow range to reflect the deterioration in the supply/demand fundamentals which has been apparent for some time? The bearish factors seem to be mounting up, namely continuing upwards revisions of US supply, less unfavourable geopolitical factors including the partial rehabilitation of Iran, less disruption to non-OPEC supply and lower EM demand - on the latter point, senior DB Asian energy analyst David Hurd points out the marked decrease in purchasing power brought about by currency depreciation for Brazil, India and Indonesia, who have collectively accounted for around 25% of the increase in oil demand over recent years. [Figure 7: 2013 VeISUI; 2007 - EVINCI (x) and CROCI (%) for main EM markers 16% 4.00 1 ■ 14% x 3.53 300 .1 12% 2 .50 I •10% 2.00 1 • i t. • 8% 110 2% 0.00 • 1111 d sr 45, /, 40 9 t e t t • EVialel (2007) • LHS • E WHO (2013) • LHS •CROCI (2007) - RHS •CROCI (2013)- RI-IS SoceccDeaunnosx.4 Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0107142 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00253326 EFTA01451026