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Subject: Greg Brown's Weekend Reading and Other Things.. 07/19/2015
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DEAR FRIEND
BRAVO.... Team Obama, Allies & Iran
Iran Nuclear Deal Concludes In h istoric Announcement
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After months and months of negotiation and to the cheers and celebrations of millions of revelers in
the streets of Iran, the United States, five other world powers and Iran have signed an agreement that
will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon -- in exchange for the elimination of international
financial sanctions. That deal was possible because of monumental diplomatic effort. It began when
the Obama Administration forged a coalition of the world's major powers to invoke the sanctions in
the first place. Then the United States persuaded those same powers to stick together until they got
deal that actually cuts off all of the major pathways for Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb. Altogether an
extraordinary achievement. And remember, the agreement was achieved because the administration
successfully maintained a truly international sanctions regime that included Russia and China as well
as the major European powers.
If the United States Congress derails a deal that is considered fair by the other permanent members of
the UN Security Council and Germany, those international sanctions will collapse -- the moderate, pro-
western forces in Iran will be discredited in Iran -- the hardliners in Iran will be empowered -- and
Iran will be free to develop a nuclear weapon. That is exactly the opposite of what opponents of the
deal say they want as an outcome. In the event that the U.S. Congress rejects the internationally
negotiated agreement, we will not be able to just "toughen our sanctions" and force the Iranians to
bend to our will. International sanctions were the vehicle that has brought Iran to the negotiating
table. The Iranians faced sanctions from all of the world's major economies.
If the Congress stops the deal, the United States will be blamed for its failure -- not Iran -- and those
international sanctions will simply disappear. And if international sanctions collapse, so will our
leverage with Iran. Again, if this deal is stopped by Congress the moderate Iranians most likely will be
marginalized even more than they are today, making any future negotiations more difficult. Whereas,
on the other hand, Iran signs the deal and then cheats -- it will be Iran that wears the jacket -- and
international action against Iran will once again be possible in order to enforce the deal's terms.
There is, of course, one other alternative: another Middle East War. The United States could try to
eliminate Iran's nuclear capacity with a military attack. But as many military experts have attested,
airstrikes will not be enough. If the United States takes unilateral military action against Iran, it will
unify the country behind the hardliners in Iranian politics. What would be necessary would be a full-
blown invasion -- regime change. And that is exactly what many of the leading opponents of the
nuclear deal really want.
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The same gang -- with the same worldview that brought us the war in Iraq -- are back. They were
wrong last time -- and they are just as wrong this time. They were wrong about everything concerning
Iraq and the Middle East -- from their claim that Saddam had nuclear weapons -- to their argument
that the war would last months and we would be greeted as "liberators." They do not have an ounce of
credibility. Why would anyone listen to them? By the way, that includes Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, who actually testified before Congress at the time, pressing the U.S. to invade
Iraq. The line that former President Bush famously muffed pertains: fool me once, shame on you; fool
me twice, shame on me. Acting under the misguided leadership of the Neo-Con Republicans in 2003,
the United States started a war that kicked over the sectarian hornet's nest that created a fertile field
for the Islamic State, killed hundreds of thousands, wounded millions, displaced millions of refugees,
and cost America trillions of dollars. And it is still not really over.
Just picture a war with Iran.
Iraq was a fragile, religiously-divided country of 33.4 million where the majority Shiite population had
been oppressed by minority Sunni's for years. Iran is a much more homogeneous country -- and more
than twice the size of Iraq - 77.4 million. In 2003 Saddam's Iraq had an army of 375,000 troops.
Today Iran has an army of 545,00o well-trained troops and an active reserve of 1,800,00o. No doubt
the American military could "defeat" the Iranian army in the short-term military sense. But it could
no more subdue Iran militarily than it could prevent an insurrection in Iraq. And the cost in lives and
treasure would be enormous. If the United States took unilateral military action against Iran after
having rejected a nuclear deal that was negotiated by the leading elements of the entire international
community, the U.S. would be completely isolated internationally. And it would throw gasoline on the
fire in the already smoldering Middle East. Want a sure way to create a whole new generation of young
Islamic terrorists, intent on attacking the United States? Start another unilateral war against a major
Muslim nation. Brilliant.
And most importantly -- we don't have to.
By organizing massive international financial sanctions and then holding a coalition together to
negotiate a tough, enforceable agreement, the Obama Administration has prevented Iran from
becoming a nuclear power and avoided a War. Of course there are those who say we shouldn't do any
agreement with Iran until it stops being what they consider to be a "bad actor" in the region. With all
due respect, that is simply a stupid position. Wouldn't you rather have a "bad actor" in the region
without nuclear weapons than a "bad actor" with nuclear weapons?
We are not doing the Iranians a favor by signing a deal that prevents them from getting nuclear
weapons and then eliminates economic sanctions that were put in place to achieve precisely that goal.
It is in our interest to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon without the necessity of a war. The
deal that the international community has negotiated with Iran achieves the goal we sought out to
achieve with the sanctions in the first place.
According to the terms of the "Corker bill" passed by Congress several months ago, sometime in the
next 6o days, members of Congress will be faced with two of the most critical votes of their careers.
First they will be asked whether or not to prevent the President from waiving the economic sanctions
on Iran and therefore implementing the terms of the agreement negotiated in Vienna. If Republicans
and some Democrats muster a majority of both Houses against implementing the deal, the president
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will then veto that measure. If Congress fails to override that veto, the agreement will go into effect.
For Congress to override a veto requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate.
So one third of the members of one House of Congress will be what is needed to prevent another
horrific "Iraq War" moment. Some Members of
Congress may think that it is in their short-term political interest to stop implementation of this
agreement. Of course the polling shows that this evaluation is wrong, since most Americans support a
negotiated agreement -- and oppose another war in the Middle East. But even if some Members of
Congress convince themselves that there are short-term fundraising or political benefits for a vote to
stop the deal -- they need to apply another more important test. Years from now, what will their
grandkids think of their vote? If history is any guide, it is entirely possible that if somehow the
agreement is actually blocked by Congress, the members whose votes are responsible will -- like their
predecessors in 2002 -- regret those votes for the rest of their lives.
Like most agreements, this one isn't perfect as neither side is getting everything it wants. But what is
undeniable, is that it at a minimum execution of the Agreement slows down Iran's nuclear weapon
program with the potential upside of thawing hostilities between Iran and the United States. And yes,
Iran is supporting hostilities in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere, but so are other counties in the Middle East,
specifically Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Concurrently, some of the most effective forces fighting against
our enemy ISIS, is being funded and supported by Iran. Policy in the Middle East is not black and
white — it require nuance. And there is little nuance when countries are perpetually on the verge of
war. Most of all, Congress doesn't understand nuance especially in a Presidential election cycle. And
for the clowns in Congress who immediately rejected the Agreement before even reading it, to believe
that they could do better is ludicrous.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Here is the full text of the Iran deal
Web
Link:
deal-text.pdf
After nearly four decades of hostilities between Iran and the U.S. we should do everything possible to
support the success of this agreement because doing what we have been doing hasn't worked and
starting a third war in the region would be a colossal mistake. Bravo team Obama, allied partners and
Iran for choosing hope over war.
******
The Numbers of Modern Slavery
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In this Nov. 29, 2014 image from video, a former slave from Burma who goes by the name Mozet, center, one of
several slaves who escaped or ran away while Thai trawlers were docked at the Benjina port, cuts planks from a
tree to earn money for food. Because the men were brought to Indonesia illegally — many after being tricked,
sold or kidnapped by Thai brokers — they do not have any official documents and live in constant fear of being
arrested.
One of the ugliest practices that is still widely used, although rarely mention, is the global slavery of
men, women and children around the world. And since it is often hidden or obfuscated from world
view little is known since these victims are the poorest of the poor, often with little or no education and
few if any resources — hence no voice. In a recent Washing Post article by Glenn Wessler titled -
Why you should be wary ofstatistics on `modern slavery' and 'trafficking' - one of the
reasons is because this scourge is seriously under-reported.
"This report estimates that, based on the information governments have provided, only around 40,000
victims have been identified in the last year. In contrast, social scientists estimate that as many as 27
million men, women, and children are trafficking victims at any given time."
—Introduction to the State Department's Trafficking in Persons report, June 2013
"Our work with victims is the key that will open the door to real change —not just on behalf of the
more than 44,000 survivors who have been identified in the past year, but also for the more than 20
million victims of trafficking who have not."
- Introduction to the State Department's Trafficking in Persons report, June 2014
Imagine that. In the space of one year, the number of victims of trafficking declined by 7 million in an
official U.S. government report.
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But not to worry. There's something called the Global Slavery Index (GSI), which received fawning
publicity, including in The Washington Post. In 2013, the GSI, sponsored by the Walk Free
Foundation, estimated that there were 29.8 million people in "modem slavery" around the world. In
November 2014, the GSI unveiled what it described as a more precise estimate: 35.8 million people.
And as Wessler asks, "That's an increase of 6 million people! What's going on here?"
That's an increase of 6 million people! What's going on here?
The Facts
Human trafficking — or, as some prefer, "modern slavery" — is a largely hidden crime, so data are
relatively scarce. Note that in the State Department reports, there is a large gulf between the estimates
of tens of millions of victims and the actual number of identified "survivors" — 44,000 at last count.
(This number is also a bit dubious.)
Moreover, the numbers can vary dramatically depending on the definition — and increasingly, the
definition has been stretched. A M. protocol on trafficldng, adopted in 2000, provided a definition
of trafficking that for political reasons was kept deliberately vague: Trafficking must meet three
conditions — an act (such as movement), means (coercion) and purpose (exploitation). Then, in what
American University law professor Janie A. Chuang calls "exploitation creep," trafficking over time has
been recast to include all forced labor, even if a person does not change location, and then has been
relabeled as "modern slavery."
When the State Department set up its office on trafficking in the early 2000s, the numbers were much
more modest. The Department's 2002 report provided an estimate that "at least 700,000, and
possibly as many asfour million men, women and children worldwide were bought, sold,
transported and held against their will in slave-like conditions." At the time, the George W. Bush
administration was largely focused on highlighting anti-prostitution efforts.
The Obama administration broadened the focus on trafficking to include forced labor, including when
no movement was involved — and officials began to label all trafficking as "modern slavery." A State
Department official, who asked not to be identified, said that the 27 million figure used in the 2013
report came from an estimate by Kevin Bales, a professor at Britain's University of Hull and author of a
2007 book, "Ending Slavery."
Then, for the 204 report, State Department officials decided to rely on a 20.9-million estimate issued
in 2012 by the International Labor Organization because officials decided it was more reputable. (This
figure was a huge increase from a 2005 ILO estimate of 12.3 million.) In an example of how
definitions matter, 9.1 million of the estimated victims in the ILO report were moved internally or
internationally. "The majority, n.8 million (56 percent), are subjected to forced labor in their place of
origin or residence," the report said. "The major problem we have alwaysfaced with human
trafficking isfinding good data,"the State Department official said. "For now, this is still a
guesstimate, but the best guesstimate there is." The official added: "I noticed that media likes to cite
the Global Slavery Index number of35.8 million because it's much larger."
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This brings us to the Global Slavery Index. Bales no longer stands by his estimate of 27 million, saying
it dates from the 199os, and points to the GSI as more accurate. (He is the lead author.) But the GSI
figure has come under attack from other researchers for having a murky, inconsistent and
questionable methodology.
The Walk Free Foundation, founded in 2012 by Australian billionaire Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest,
says it wants to eliminate slavery in a generation. The GSI not only provides a total but purports to
show how many "slaves" are in each country. GSI relies on an expansive definition of slavery, but
confusingly it relies on primary and secondary data that was collected under different definitions. The
data are relatively sparse, but the GSI extrapolates from existing numbers to make calculations in what
it deems are similar countries. Essentially, researchers extrapolated from 19 countries to come up with
precise statistics for the 167 countries that make up the index.
Thus data for the United States is considered relevant to calculate Italy's total of 11,400 slaves, for
instance. South Africa's number of slaves — supposedly 106,000 — was derived from the fact that GSI
researchers decided the country is 70 percent "Western Europe" and 30 percent "African"
(specifically, an amalgam of Ethiopia, Nigeria, Niger and Namibia).
In the most recent report, GSI began to introduce Gallup polling in selected countries. This is one
reason why it says the number jumped by 6 million in one year: "The increase is due to the improved
accuracy and precision of our measures and that we are uncovering modern slavery where it was not
seen before."
The polling was done face to face in seven countries, and 19 additional polls will be added to next
year's index, said Pablo Diego Rosell, a Gallup consultant. "In applicable countries, Gallup uses a
network sampling methodology. Network sampling gathers information about an individual's carefully
defined family network, including those who may be living elsewhere," he said. "This approach is most
efficient in the countries that Walk Free prioritized for survey data collection, where modem slavery is
either highly prevalent or has greater visibility." In other countries, where he said slavery is not as
visible, the index uses "non-survey methodologies."
But Andrew Guth, who wrote critically of GSI's methodology, notes that the Gallup polling, if taken as
face value, demonstrated that the index's previous estimates were wildly off course. Ethiopia turned
out to have a prevalence level five times lower than the year before — and Nigeria was to times lower,
while Russia was deemed to be two times higher. "This simple comparison throws into question the
reliability of their estimates and extrapolations of other countries whetherfrom last year or this
year,"he said. "Even their own data compared to itself is not reliable."
It is beyond the scope of this column to assess the merits of this debate, which largely is between
experts such as Ronald Weitzer of George Washington University who advocate for careful studies of
local problems and those such as Bales, who press for macro-level estimates. "The challenge is that
modern slavery is a hidden crime. Every country has made slavery illegal, so collecting data on this
matter has not been easy,"said Sheldon Zhang of San Diego State University, who consults for Walk
Free. "We should not abandon macro level estimation just because it isfull ofproblems."
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Weitzer says it is more than a philosophical debate but one with important consequences. "It matters a
great deal in terms of (0 whether human trafficking or modern slavery is indeed a huge problem
and (2) all the money spentfighting the problem, and the proliferation of more and more laws and
creation ofpolice anti-trafficking units,"he said. "The bottom line would be: what is the source of the
figures propounded by NGOs, governments, international organizations and some scholars."
The Pinocchio Test
Clearly there is a problem with the numbers when the U.S. government cites a figure of 20 million and
a well-funded, media-savvy organization touts a figure of "slaves" that is almost twice as high. Media
organizations are complicit in fostering misperceptions by often citing these figures as established fact,
without even an explanation or examination of the methodology. The numbers grow or shrink
depending on the definitions that are used, and yet media reports rarely examine that aspect. (A rare
exception is a 2007 article by our colleague Jerry Markon, who documented how few actual victims of
human trafficking have been found. More recently, the Guardian has published articles critical of GSI.)
Advocates want to call attention to a serious problem and big numbers of course attract media
attention. But these guesstimates remain too shaky to be cited without a healthy dose of skepticism.
The estimates may be done in good faith, so these Pinocchios are for all-too-credulous acceptance of
them. With this the Washington Post awarded its most egregious Four Pinocchios.
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As Wessler points out: numbers matter. Still this modern slavery does not include the tens of
millions of children in poor countries working as much as 12 hours a day six days a week to
supplement their family's survival. Or the millions of migrant workers from Indian, Pakistan and
elsewhere around the world, living in squalor, often making just several dollars a day which money is
then deducted from their salaries to repay the middlemen and loan-sharks in their home towns and
villages who arranged their visas and indentured employment. Modern slavery is alive and well. It is a
scourge and blight in today's society and like any other disease the world needs to work together to
eradicate it numbers of not.
******
New Music Industry Revenue Figures Show an Illusion of Stability
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Today's modem technology isn't just changing lives, it's also changing people's entire philosophies and
popular culture. For example, it's spawned a distinct difference between the younger generation
and "the rest of us": Younger folks aren't as hung up on owning what comedian George Carlin famously
dismissed as "stuff" From Zipcar, to Netflix (NFLX), to owning a house, today's "on-demand" culture
has made many modern goods and services more convenient and more affordable than buying
outright. One area where on-demand is proving increasingly popular is the music industry...
The days of spending ages at the local record store and owning a massive music collection are
dwindling. A 2012 Nielsen study found that YouTube is the most popular way for the young to listen to
and discover music. It's also leading to the rise of streaming, on-demand music services like Pandora
(P), Spotify and iHeartRadio. In fact, they're growing faster than popular download sites like Apple's
(AAPL) imnes and Amazon (AMZN). Figures from the Recording Industry Association of America
support this: Streaming services jumped by 58% last year to over $1 billion in revenue, while music
downloads only saw 8.6% growth to $2.9 billion. In the meantime, the number of people buying music
in the United States has remained flat for the last three years.
In today's mobile age, it's no surprise that smartphones and tablets are the main device for streaming
music. And just as streaming music is usurping records and downloads, it's also replacing the car's
AM/FM dial. Drivers are streaming music through the auxiliary jack on their phones. In a survey of 13
to 35 year olds who use streaming services, NPD Group found that more than half said they do most of
their listening in the car. (Presumably, the ones under 16 weren't driving!) Car companies are taking
notice. Thirteen automakers have at least one model that offers streaming music leader, Pandora. It's
also in every BMW and Mini. Overall, streaming services now make up 15% of the global music
market. But the move to streaming music in the United States has actually been pretty slow, compared
to some other countries.
Sweden has undergone an extraordinary turnaround in the last decade. Once the home of rampant
music piracy, epitomized by its notorious file-sharing site, The Pirate Bay, a massive 91% of Sweden's
online music consumption now comes from paid subscriptions. The main reason? Sweden's streaming
service, Spotify.
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As the company's Chief Product Officer, Gustav Soderstrom, confirms: "Spotify really started to
combat online piracy, so IM say we didn't create a behavior that didn't exist, we just transferred it to a
legal medium. It offered the same principle that you could get music for free, but all the music was
licensed and it was better than piracy because you didn't have to wait for the whole file to download
before you could listen to it."
The model is hugely popular. Worldwide, Spotify has more than 24 million "active" users — i.e.,
people who've used the service in the last 3o days. Of those, six million are "premium" customers, who
pay $10 a month for ad-free listening. And Spotify continues to grow. It recently announced expansion
into Latin America, Asia and Europe. So what do these streaming music fans know that the rest of us
don't?
If you read the terms and conditions on download music sites like iTunes and Amazon, see what
you're actually buying when Apple takes your 99(t. You're not actually "buying" the music at all. You're
merely buying the right to "use" a song in your iTunes library. In other words, you can't resell or give
away that song to anyone else. That's starting to sink in with consumers (leading to absurd rumors
involving film star, Bruce Willis). After all, why buy a song that you don't truly own when streaming
music gives you exactly the same thing for much less when amortized over time?
The rise of digital media has people asking what it means to "own" something intangible? Current
music copyright laws focus tangible goods — vinyl, cassettes and CDs. And the courts seem content to
rule in mind-bogglingly nonsensical ways. Take a company called ReDigi, which purports to be a
digital marketplace for "secondhand" songs — i.e., music you no longer want.
ReDigi's software has a unique way of verifying if a downloaded song was originally obtained legally,
and then once re-sold in the secondhand marketplace, it erases all traces of the song on your synced
devices and prevents you from reloading it afterwards. Soon after ReDigi launched, Capitol Records
promptly sued the company for infringement. The judge in the case ruled that to resell a song, you
have to sell the device it's stored on. Needless to say, ReDigi is appealing. So far streaming services
have bypass all the legal confusion that plagues many in downloaded music.
The RIAA released its annual recorded music revenue figures for 2014. The numbers tell the story of
changes in the digital music market that have been familiar for the past few years: on-demand music
services up, digital radio up, CD sales even further down, ringtone revenue evaporating. The total
revenues are flat, but as we'll see, that doesn't mean the music industry is now stable; not at all.
First, there's one surprise in the 2014 figures, at least to those who haven't been paying close attention:
the resurgence of vinyl after its near death ten years ago. Vinyl (mostly LP) revenues are the fastest-
growing segment of the industry. Revenue from LPs exceeded $300 million and increased 5o% over
2013, which is more than ad-supported on-demand music services such as YouTube and Spotify's free
service. And the year-over-year growth of vinyl is increasing too. Vinyl could easily become a half-
billion-dollar industry this year (though that's still tiny compared to vinyl's peak of nearly $10 billion
in 1978).
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On the other hand, sales of downloads (albums and singles) have shifted into sharp decline, as the
figure below shows. Downloads, mainly from Apple's AAPL +0.43% iTunes and Amazon MP3, are
down 9%. The trend is clear: a certain segment of the population still likes owning music, but those
people are finding that they like owning a physical object more, particularly one available in packaging
that acts as a canvas for art, photos, lyrics, and liner notes, and doesn't require a magnifying glass.
The market for turntables is growing accordingly, giving rise to two new types of designs that are
available at affordable prices: models with built-in analog-to-digital converters and USB output cables
for digitizing your vinyl on your PC, and retro-minimalist manual models that could be described as
"Warby Parker for LPs."
RIAA revenues 2003-2014
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Selected recorded music revenue streams, 2003-2024, Smillion. Source: RIAA
As someone who has own 78s, 45s, LPs, 8-tracks, 4-tracks, cassettes, cds as well as purchasing
thousands of songs on iTunes, many of which I previously purchased in other technologies and
formats, I have yet to get into music streaming. And sill owning several hundred vinyl's I am glad to
hear about their comeback so I guess I better buy another turntable since I gave my last one away in
the 1990s. Obviously music does have a second act....
Even The Good Guys Are Rewriting History
And they can do so because no one paid for largest foreign policy mistake/disaster in U.S. history.
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One of my late father's favorite sayings was, "history is always re-written by the winners." No
place is this more evident than the current analysis of the War in Iraq which the Bush/Cheney
Administration blames on bad intelligence from the CIA and other intelligence Agencies and Barack
Obama. The fact that from the day that the Bush/Cheney Administration took office, their number one
priority was overthrowing the government of Saddam Hussein which they called "Regime Change" and
others referred to as "gunboat diplomacy", should make it easy for everyone to understand how we got
into the Second War in Iraq. They (the neocons) wanted it and did everything possible to make it
happen.
From the innuendos suggesting that Saddam Hussein was supporting al Qaeda and thus somehow
connected to the 9/11 attacks, to accusations that he was developing a nuclear bomb and was months if
not weeks away from developing technology that would allow him to blow up American Cities seven
thousand miles away. And when this proved too bizarre the Bush/Cheney came up with the fuzzy
moniker "WMD" (Weapons of Mass Destruction) that they somehow linked "mushroom clouds over
Washington" and "yellow cake" from Niger which had already been proven false by the time that it
was used, it should have been obvious to everyone that facts didn't matter and sooner or later war with
Iraq was inevitable. These same people believed "Curveball" (Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi) the
Iraqi defector and scammer who claimed that Saddam Hussein had mobile bio-weapons trucks and
secret factories in the Iraqi desert. The fact that the only people who believe Curveball was UK's Prime
Minister Tony Blair and the neocons around the Bush/Cheney Administration even though by then he
had confessed to German intelligence he had lied, is often glossed over in this current reinterpretation
of history.
The truth is that on Sept. i8, 2002, CIA director George Tenet briefed President Bush in the Oval
Office on top-secret intelligence that Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction.
Bush dismissed this as worthless because the information came from Naji Sabri, Saddam's foreign
minister and a member of Saddam's inner circle, which turned out to be accurate in every detail. Both
the French intelligence service and the CIA paid Sabri hundreds of thousands of dollars (at least
$200,000 in the case of the CIA) to give them documents on Saddam's WMD programs. They wanted
him to provide proof that Saddam had a nuclear program and could build a nuclear weapon within two
years if were on the way to acquiring fissile material. Sabri told them that he couldn't. Also that
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Saddam didn't have chemical or biological weapons either. Not to disappoint The Noss again, Tenet
never brought it up again.
As a result, this intelligence was not included in the National Intelligence Estimate of October 2002,
which stated categorically that Iraq possessed WMD. No one in Congress was aware of the secret
intelligence that Saddam had no WMD as the House of Representatives and the Senate voted, a week
after the submission of the NIE, on the Authorization for Use of Military Force in Iraq. The
information, moreover, was not circulated within the CIA among those agents involved in operations
to prove whether Saddam had WMD.
On April 23, 2006, CBS's "60 Minutes" interviewed Tyler Drumheller, the former CIA chief of
clandestine operations for Europe, who disclosed that the agency had received documentary
intelligence from Naji Sabri, that Saddam did not have WMD. "We continued to validate him the
whole way through,"said Drumheller. "The policy was set. The war in Iraq was coming, and they
were looking for intelligence tofit into the policy, to justify the policy."
Several former senior CIA officers have confirmed Drumheller's account to journalist Sidney
Blumenthal (who wrote great piece in Salon Magazine in September 2007 - Bush knew Saddam had
no weapons of mass destruction) and provided the background to the story of how the information
that might have stopped the invasion of Iraq was twisted in order to justify it. They described what
Tenet said to Bush about the lack of WMD, and how Bush responded, and noted that Tenet never
shared Sabri's intelligence with then Secretary of State Colin Powell. According to the former officers,
the intelligence was also never shared with the senior military planning the invasion, which required
U.S. soldiers to receive medical shots against the ill effects of WMD and to wear protective uniforms in
the desert.
Instead, said the former officials, the information was distorted in a report written to fit the
preconception that Saddam did have WMD programs. That false and restructured report was passed
to Richard Dearlove, chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), who briefed Prime Minister
Tony Blair on it as validation of the cause for war. Secretary of State Powell, in preparation for his
presentation of evidence of Saddam's WMD to the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 5, 2003,
spent days at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., and had Tenet sit directly behind him as a sign of
credibility. But Tenet, according to the sources, never told Powell about existing intelligence that there
were no WMD, and Powell's speech was later revealed to be a series of falsehoods.
We have to wonder if the country has collective amnesia.
I say this because I understand why Dick Cheney, George Bush and the neocons are trying to rewrite
history, blaming the single worse foreign policy mistake since the Civil War on intelligence failures by
others. But when I see David Brook who is a conservative columnist at the New York Times employ
the same excuse I truly get sick. Yes, Brooks was once an enthusiastic backer of George W. Bush's
disastrous invasion of Iraq. write columns for the Weekly Standard - the official journal of
bankrupt neoconservative thought - glorifying Bush for his steely-eyed determination and tartly
mocking the pansy liberals and other anti-war types who opposed Bush's righteous exercise in nation-
building and freedom-spreading. "History will allow clear judgments about which leaders and which
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institutions were up to the challenge posed by Saddam," Brooks prophesied in the March 2003
column, "and which were not."
As we now know not only did this prediction not pan out, the Iraq war ended up being a disaster. But
contrary to Brooks' assurance, the "clear judgments" about who was right and who was wrong about
Iraq are still pending, as evidenced by the fact that so many people who got it so terribly wrong haven't
faced any real consequences. Let's use Brooks himself as an example. He landed his plum gig on the
Times op-ed page a few months after the war started and used his perch to continue singing the praises
of Bush and the Iraq experiment, like in this September 2004 column predicting that Iraq's elections
would help undermine the insurgency. What judgment did Brooks face for being constantly and
consistently wrong about Iraq? Well, he's still writing for the Times op-ed page.
But, according to his latest Times column, Brooks claims to have learned from the mistakes he made
about Iraq. You can't undo the past, Brooks writes, but you can draw lessons from it:
The first obvious lesson is that we should look at intelligence products with a more skeptical
eye. There's a fable going around now that the intelligence about Iraqi weapons of mass
destruction was all cooked by political pressure, that there was a big political conspiracy to lie us
into war.
That doesn't gibe with the facts. Anybody conversant with the Robb-Silberman report from
2005 knows this was a case of human fallibility. This exhaustive, bipartisan commission found
"a major intelligencefailure": "Thefailure was not merely that the Intelligence Community's
assessments were wrong. There were also shortcomings in the way these assessments were
made and communicated to policy makers."
There's so much that's wrong in these two paragraphs. Brooks' argument that the invasion was just
one big good-faith "whoopsie" on the part of the Bush White House was demolished just yesterday by
his colleague Paul Krugman. The problem with the Iraq intelligence wasn't just a lack of "skepticism"
on the part of the people consuming it — there was a concerted effort to twist and manipulate that
intelligence to achieve the desired end of invading Iraq. And today the argument that the only reason
why the United States and its allies got into the war was because of faulty intelligence is a continuation
of the same pattern of lies. And for David Brooks who I respect and for the media to accept is as
dishonest as the initial deception that got us into the war in the first place.
Today, Brooks now claims that "the intelligence about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction was all
cooked by political pressure" is a "fable." This is a dishonest and easily debunked straw man. No one
is arguing that all the intelligence was cooked. There were definite failures within the intelligence
community. The problem, again, is that those failures were compounded by the Bush administration
spin and deception about aluminum tubes and secret Al Qaida connections. But, Brooks counters
again, it's just not true that the Bush people cooked some of the Iraq intelligence because the
"exhaustive" Robb-Silberman report found that it was all just a series of errors.
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This, again, is false. The Robb-Silberman report was not "exhaustive" - the commission was
specifically instructed not to investigate how Iraq intelligence was manipulated by policymakers. That
task fell to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which found that George W. Bush and his
closest advisers regularly made definitive statements about Iraq's weapons programs and terrorism
ties that were either unsubstantiated by available intelligence or didn't reflect disputes within the
intelligence community. Having exonerated the architects of the war — and, by extension, himself - of
conscious wrongdoing, Brooks explains what he's really learned from this ordeal: military
interventionism is only slightly overrated as a policy. And he can say this because "no one"
(leadership or supporters) has paid a price for the greatest foreign policy mistake/disaster in the
country's history.
M Simon Maloy recently wrote in Salon Magazine, we should go back to Brooks' 2003 assurance that
history will render its verdicts on those who endorsed the Iraq debacle and those who did not. History
hasn't yet allowed "clear judgments" on the backers of the Iraq misadventure because the people who
should be feeling the sting of those judgments — like David Brooks - (whom I respect) — are doing
their level best to water down and explain away the appalling conduct that led to the actual war. What
makes Brooks' column so galling is that he's trying to present his self-serving exculpation of the Iraq
war architects as a lesson learned. Brooks pretty clearly hasn't learned a thing, and that's to be
expected when you suffer no consequences for being completely and catastrophically wrong.
Ultimately, history is always rewritten by the winners.
Another Milestone is Broken
Inlim. inmgc 1
A major barrier was broken in America and no one seem to notice... This was on the week of the mass
shooting by 21-year-old Dylann Roff (an avowed white supremacist) at the Emanuel African
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Methodist Episcopal Church in downtown Charleston, South Carolina, United States. The church is
one of the United States' oldest black churches and has long been a site for community organization
around civil rights. Nine people were killed, including the senior pastor and state senator, Clementa C.
Pinckney. A tenth person was shot and survived. One day after the tragedy in Charleston this barrier
that few people noticed was career journalist Lester Holt was made the permanent anchor of NBC
Nightly News, with NBC moving the disgraced Brian Williams to its MSNBC cable network.
Having been born the year after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in Major League Sports when
he played his first game as a Brooklyn Dodger and before Chuck Cooper became the first black player
to be drafted when he was chosen by Boston; Nat "Sweetwater" Clifton became the first to sign an
NBA contract when he signed with New York, and Earl Lloyd became the first to play in an NBA
regular-season game because the schedule had his Washington team opening one day before the
others, I never imagined the day when a person of color would host the Nightly News for one of the Big
3 Networks.
When I was growing up there was an informal "quota" of sorts on how many African-Americans could
be on a team at one time... In Basketball it was 4 although most teams only had three or less and in
Major League Baseball the "quota" was two and some teams having only one African American player.
And although there were many African American medical doctor, dentist, engineers and scientist, I
remember when whites didn't think that blacks had the intellect, talent and temperament to be
quarterbacks in the NFL, pitchers in Major League Baseball or managers in either in Major League
Baseball, Football or Basketball.
And although African Americans had been flying for their country since WWII and Tuskegee, the first
Black person to travel in space was a Cuban, Arnaldo Tamayo Mendez on Soyuz 38 (September 18,
1980) curtesy of the USSR. Guion Bluford was the First African-American astronaut in space STS-8
(August 3o, 1983). And no one noticed.... But when I remember when the New York Knicks played the
Detroit Pistons on October 18, 1979 and everyone Black person I knew was calling friends to watch the
game because all of the players on the floor were African Americans. We couldn't believe it...
There have been African Americans stars since the days of Benjamin Banneker, Sojourner Truth, Nat
Turner, Frederick Douglass, Harriet Tubman, Booker T. Washington, George Washington Carver,
Madame C.J. Walker (thefirst Women millionaire in America), W.E.B. DuBois, Scott Joplin, W.C.
Handy, (Known as "The Father of the Blues."), Benjamin O. Davis Sr. (First AfricanAmerican
general in the U.S. Army), Jack Johnson (First black heavyweight boxing champion of the world),
Eubie Blake, Mamie Smith (First African American to make vocal blues recordings, in 1920), Marcus
Garvey, Bessie Coleman (First black licensed pilot in the world), Marian Anderson, Duke Ellington,
Louis "Satchmo" Armstrong, Langston Hughes, Rosa Parks (Dubbed the "Mother of the modern-day
Civil Rights Movement"), Joe Louis, Muddy Waters, Ella Fitzgerald. James Baldwin and Edward
Brooke III (First African American elected to the U.S. Senate), Shirley Chisholm (First African-
American woman elected to Congress) and Althea Gibson (First African American woman to be a
competitor on the world tennis tour).
My generation has had Miles Davis, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King, Jim Brown, Wilt Chamberlain,
Ray Charles, Colin Powell, Andy Young, John Coltrane, Jessie Jackson, Arthur Ashe, Wilt Chamberlin,
Walter Payton, Stevie Wonder, Earvin "Magic" Johnson, Michael Jackson and Oprah. We have seen
African Americans become the World's Most Love Athlete (Muhammad Ali), the Number 1 Rock
Star in the World (Jimi Hendrix), the Number 1 Pop Start in the World (Michael Jackson), the
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most successful and trusted person in media (Oprah) and the most powerful person in the world
(Barrack Hussein Obama our President). So maybe it is understandable that there was little
fanfare when Lester Holt took over as the anchor on NBC's Nightly News.
This is the chair of the legendary John Cameron Swayze, Chet Huntley, David Brinkley, John
Chancellor, Tom Brokaw, Roger Mudd and for the last eleven years Brian Williams. Then after three
months as the interim anchor, NBC announced that Lester Holt was made the permanent anchor. This
was a position denied to Bryant Gumbel who took the Number 1 position away from Good Morning
America when he co-hosted The TODAY'S SHOW on NBC. With this I would like to give a belated
congratulations to Lester Holt for breaking this barrier with such ease and grace, that few people
noticed. For more about Lester Holt, attached please find Emily Steel's New York Times article —
Lester Holt Reflects on Rise to NBC's Anchor Chair.
******
Greece Screwed Again
Inline image 1
Already owed 322 billion euros the Euro Zone Partners bullied Greece in accepting a deal that would
give them an additional 86 billion euros in return for tougher austerity measures and structural
reforms. How stupid is this? Think about it, if someone can't repay 322 billion do you think that by
giving 82 billion euros more is a solution? As someone commented, "The Greek debacle reminds
me of the doctor who gave a patient six months to live. When he failed to pay the doctor's
bill the doctor gave him another six months." Greece's economy has already contracted by more than
25%. So with less money coming in how the hell are they then going to repay a much larger loan? This
is truly voodoo economics. And the EU, IMF and Germany should be ashamed.
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One could understand if the money was being provided so that Greece could expand their industrial
base, but to give them money to repay non-performing loans is an un
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