EFTA01449271.pdf

Deutsche Bank El 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Canada (CAD bn) Figure 1: The basic balance has generally been in a Figure 2: as net FDI outflows continue downtrend since 2007 —Net FDI 80 Base Baena, 40 1 10 60 60 OulWatl Olga Inassynoms 60 CADJUSI) - Queen Ave lase (m) - 1.06 Odra Imestrn. -ine.J.t 40 - 1.00 40 40 20 •0% ▪ 0.90 20 20 0 . 0 86 20 • 0.60 0 0 -40 • 0 75 -60 0.70 -20 -20 -80 ▪ 065 -100 060 -40 Dec-90 Dec-94 Dec-98 Dec-02 Dec-06 Dec.10 Ma -90 Mar-94 Mar-98 Mar-02 Mar-C6 Mar-IC Satre Off ne Figure 3: Portfolio inflows seem to have peaked after Figure 4: as foreign interest in Canadian securities has an upsurge since 2008 fallen from record highs 150 —PortIola Ekren 12-npanth 1 10 150 150 - Saab ElolarKo 40 tang - 1 05 Clinnery *sung. (r* 100 100 100 • 1.00 - 0.95 50 50 50 - 090 -085 0 0 0 080 -075 -50 -60 - 070 -100 -100 • 065 -100 - 060 -160 -160 Jen-91 J un-95 Jun-99 Jun03 Jun-07 Jun-11 Jan-91 Jen.94Jen97 JentOlan-03 Jan-06J anO9Jan12 Figure 5: Net equity outflows continue unabated Figure 6: while net debt inflows have started moderating from record highs. -contemn Fbws £bmee -Ceneeen Fbws Abend 60 125 Fosorgn Infbwi 126 rosign (*lbws 100 i —Net Debt Fbws 100 40 — Mot EquItc ft** 40 20 20 75 76 50 50 0 0 25 25 40 -20 0 0 -40 -40 -25 -26 .60 .60 -so -50 -CO -CO -75 Jan9I Jan-94 isnS7 Jan% Jan.03 J en0S Jan.09 J402 Jen-91 Jan94Jan97 JanaJen03 J an% JanCOJan12 SOW* Del, P.-W.I.:ern: S.•fiC/1 Ce Pern•A in)01,..re Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 21 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104609 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250793 EFTA01449271