EFTA01367318.pdf

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Date • US Integrated Oils 31 May 2015 North America United States Industrials Integrated Oil Hyatt [odd !v.:4 Crnuram Research Analyst Researdi Analyst 1+11212 250-8342 (+1) 212 250-4278 [email protected] igor.grinmarY.Pdb.com Dav,J Firroculta Research Associate 1+11212 250.3191 [email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors The "Other" 40 Million Barrels a Day and the Call on US Crude Growth The Coming Highs & Lows of Non-OPEC Production (and what it means for US) While significant attention has been dedicated to the analysis of the US supply dynamics over past 6 months, we turn our attention to the less-well understood 40 MMb/d of global crude production (ex-OPEC, ex-US onshore, ex-NGLs), and the outlook for the coming 2-5 years. Key takeaways: 1) Don't expect a major roll-over in Non-OPEC supply through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentivize and support this growth, 4) post-2017, Non-OPEC shortages to drive rapidly escalating call on US crude and price inflation. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058850 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205034 EFTA01367318