📄 Extracted Text (511 words)
Exhibit 10 CBD Premium to Suburban Rent
80%
75%
lit 70%
.§ 65%
60%
g 55%
50%
o.
o 45%
o 40%
35%
30%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
:Awn. CGiE.EA Vaza a, 2018
San Francisco Bay area office markets continue to show the most robust growth, with San Jose and Oakland as
top performers. Oakland boasted the highest rent growth (14.7%) while San Jose recorded the highest total return
(16.7%).:c While not without risk, high-tech dominated markets Austin and Seattle also outperformed, and Sun Belt
cities Atlanta. Miami and Charlotte showed strong returns and rent growth. Houston continues to drop off due to
energy-related contractions eroding absorption.
5.2 Outlook and Strategy
Our outlook for the national office market is positive. and we believe there could be more runway for further growth.
Themes that will perpetuate further improvement in the office market include waning densification, a return to
growth mode, mixed-use development in urban fringe locations, and a need for more cost-effective locations.
Together. these factors improve occupancy across CBD and parts of suburban markets.
Densification is present. but to a lesser degree as more common areas and huddle rooms are incorporated.
Pushback to densification is also emerging, particularly in traditional office-using industries that are only recently
showing more expansion. CBDs will benefit from increased absorption as densification lessens in intensity. which
in turn will further tighten occupancy, expelling demand. Urban hinge locations in the most outer rings of the CBD
into the suburbs that have been repositioned as livetworldplay or 24/7 locations will be the primary beneficiary of
demand outflow. Broader demand levels will create value across office markets. driving NOI growth for a wider
range of properties. With the caveat that markets across the U.S. are at various points in their respective cycles,
there are different implications to our Investment strategy:
— Gateway Markets: Gateway markets (Boston, New York, Washington D.C., Los Angeles. and San Francisco)
have outperformed over the long term. Higher barriers-to-entry allow rents and prices In these markets to
continue growing in inflation-adjusted terms over time. That said, cap rates are cuneMly at record lows relative
to the broader U.S. office market, and do not necessarily compensate for some of the risk that is materializing
in these cities. We are underweight New York. Washington D.C. and San Francisco. Concerns in these
markets include high-tech vulnerability, cost-prohibitive rents, elevated supply pipelines and subdued
absorption levels. Boston and Los Angeles, however, still offer opportunity for portfolios in need of exposure to
these historically strong markets. Value-add and development projects in "A" locations, and class A buildings in
vibrant -urbanized" subma€kets with transit access to the CBD remain the most advantageous asset types.
Although suburban markets are recovering, we would continue to avoid class B or value-add investment, and
any investment in suburbs without adequate transit connections.
NCREIF (total retuins1:O311E-EA (rent growth). Dula as of July 2016.
U.S. Real Estate Strategic Outlook I Septiir 2 ,h= 15
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0092301
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00238485
EFTA01388636
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