EFTA02444494.pdf

To: Jes Stale From: Jeffrey Epstein Sent Thur 5/6/2010 2:38:31 PM Subject keep confidential„ nytimes Reserve Losses pdf Forwarded messa e From: Landon Thomas Date: Thu, May 6, 2010 at 10:16 AM Subject: Fwd: Central Banks' Losses from EURUSD this Year: USD300 Billion and Counting To: "Epstein, Jeffrey" <jeevacationagmail.com> time to double down? ----- Forwarded message From: Stephen L Jen ilEM Date: Thu, May 6, 2010 at 2:59 PM Subject: Central Banks' Losses from EURUSD this Year: USD300 Billion and Counting To: Stephen L Jen ‹ > Central Banks' Lossesfrom EURUSD this Year: USD300 Billion and Counting Stephen L Jen May 6, 2010 Bottom line: Central banks have sustained USD300 billion in valuation losses (YTD)from the depreciating euro. The level ofangst at these central banks may be elevated now and the risks are rising that some ofthese central banks de-rate the euro. Totalforeign currency reserves held by all central bank have reached USD9.0 trillion, with the top-8 reserve holders managing some US$5.3 trillion. Of this latter amount, US$1.55 trillion (or 30°A) ofthe total) is held in euros. Corresponding to the 10% depreciation in EURUSD year-to-date, the top-8 reserve holders may have suffered close to USD200 billion in valuation losses, and for all central banks the total valuation loss has been around USD300 billion. We guesstimate that China (SAFE) may have suffered a US$80 billion in EUR valuation losses, US$14 billionfor Russia, and US$7 billionfor Korea. These EFTA_R1_01521387 EFTA02444494 figures do not include actual and potentialfurther losses on their underlying holdings of European bonds. If EURUSD trades down to 1.2150, all of the monetary gainsfrom the dollar-to- euro diversification in the past decade will be lost. (1) Central banks' reserve managers are presumably reconsidering their dollar- diversification strategy, now that the euro is alsofound to be less than a perfect 'anti-dollar'. (2) The risks offurther declines in the euro and a possible debt rescheduling in Europe are likely to be sources of additional worriesfor central banks with large exposures to the euro. (3) In addition to central banks being concerned about the euro, the euro-selling process has only just begun for the large real money institutionalfunds, and the potentialfor much largerfunds to reduce their euro exposures is significant Since January, my mental targetfor EURUSD has been 1.20. However, I now think the risk to EURUSD is heavily biased to the downside relative to thisfigure. slj Stephen L len Managing Director of Macroeconomics and Currencies BL, iCe; , BlueGold Capital Management LLP 4 Sloane Terrace, SW1X 9D0 London, UK IT www. • uego • cdp.coni Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Confidentiality Notice confidential and/or privileged information may be contained in this email and any attached documents. The material and . for the use of the intended addressee only. It you are not the intended addressee, or the person responsible for delivering it to the intended 4ricie es tev. you may not copy, disclose, distribute, disseminate or deliver it to anyone else or use it in any unauthorised manner or take or omit to take any action in reliance on it. To do so is prohibited and may be unlawful. The views expressed in this e-mail may nol be those of the Company from EFTA_R1_01521388 EFTA02444495 which it has come but the personal views of the originator.. If you receive this e-mail in error, please advise the sender immediately by using the reply facility in your email software. Please also delete this e-mail and all documents attached immediately. Many thanks for your cooperation. Registered Office: 42-44 Portman Road, Reading, Berkshire, RG30 LEA. Registered No OC331798 Landon Thomas, Jr. Financial Correspondent New York Times The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to icc‘acationrii. mail cp.m, and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. EFTA_R1_01521389 EFTA02444496