EFTA00410733.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 6.22.12 Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2012 10:10:45 +0000 Good Morning European Markets off 45-90 bps (Spain +1.1%, Italy +0.25%) Nikkei -0.29%, HSI -1.40%, KOSPI -2.21%, China closed (Dragon Boat Day) EUR 1.2550 (+0.08%) JPY 80.27 (+0.01%) NZD 0.7873 (+0.12%) Copper -0.35% Silver +0.20% US 10yr 1.63% Futures: Dow +49, Nasdaq +9, S&P +6 DXY $82.27 (-2c) Crude $78.73 (+53c) Gold $1570.70 (+$5.20) Moody's announced its widely anticipated downgrade of 15 global banks after the close last night. No big surprises although Credit Suisse getting cut by 3 notches and MS only getting cut by 2 getting some attention in the press (note CS is still the highest rated IB in the world & a 2-notch cut for MS was consensus despite fears of 3). Hollande, Merkel, Rajoy & Monti meeting in Rome today ahead of the key EU Summit next week and the proposal to allow the EFSF/ESM to buy peripheral sovereign debt will remain in focus (will Merkel continue to resist pressure?). The Wyman-Berger audit of Spanish banks out after the European close yesterday indicated capital needs of C51- C62 billion in an adverse scenario (-6.5% real GDP contraction plus additional 26% decline in home prices = down 55-60% from the peak). The deadline for Spain to formally request a credit line for the banks is Monday but could come shortly. BofA, Credit Suisse, UBS all lowering 2012-2013 eurozone GDP forecasts this morning. German IFO business confidence prints at a 2yr low = 105.3 versus estimate 105.6. Troika heads back to Athens on Monday to review reform progress (or lack thereof) and possibly pave the way for a tweaking of the bailout terms. Goldman's Jim O'Neill was on CNBC Europe early this morning and said that from talking to people who attended G20 in Mexico it was clear they felt something was in the works ("somewhere along the line here one of the bazookas is going to come out"). Stakes are high for the EU Summit next week as Monti has made clear says the Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/22/mario-monti-week- save-eurozone>. Reminder that Sweden & Finland are closed today for midsummer holiday. Russell Rebalance on the close in the US. S&P futures +6 handles = 1324 last. ***CCL & DRI report earnings pre-open*** ***Greece vs Germany in Euro 2012 @ 2:45pm EST*** ***Eurozone FinMin meeting wraps up in Lux later today*** IMF increasingly challenging Germany's game plan for fixing Eurozone crisis (FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2f95ce94-bbed-11e1-9aff-00144feabdc0.htmltaxzzlyEcPuI7j>) Telegraph article highlights "reform fatigue" in Italy and Monti under pressure (Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9347924/Debt-crisis-desperate- Monti-needs-Merkel-summit-deal-to-stop-revolt-at-home.html>) No SC ObamaCare ruling yesterday so it is likely to come next week (before June 28) BBC's Mark Thompson said to be in talks to become the next CEO of New York Times Brazil's Eike Batista said to sell 49% of his AUX gold business to Qatar for $2 billion Monster Beverages (MNST) will replace Sara Lee (SLE) in the S&P 500 (June 28 close) Renewable Energy $712 million charge & plans NOK 1.3B private placement (trading -29.3%) Adidas CEO says he is confident in 2015 forecasts as World Cup to boost sales (trading -1.1%) EFTA00410733  Clariant aims to increase EBITDA margin >17% by 2015 and ROIC to above peer avg (trading -2.8%) Holcim will contest CHF 420M fine by the Indian competition authority over price fixing (trading -2.6%) KPN will begin sale of Belgian mobile unit next month, Carlos Slim increases stake to 21% (-3.9%) Telenet allows customers to terminate contracts without incurring termination fee (trading -1.8%) 3i trading +1.3% on press spec of organizational change and 40% staff cuts (AGM on June 29) IAG speculation making the rounds Qataris to acquire Bankia's 12% stake (trading -1.3%) Abertis sells 7% of its 15% stake in Eutelsat to CIC for C385M (ETL FP trading +2.2%) William Hill receives non restricted gaming commission license for Nevada (trading +0.30%) Italy consumer confidence index falls amidst rising taxes & unemployment 85.3 vs est 86.0 Swedish finance minister says can look at banking union issue over next year or two (DJ) Pakistan's ruling party announces early parliament elections will be held later this year (AP) China 7-day repurchase rate +98 bps yesterday (gauge of funding availability in the system) Leading European Sectors: Telco +0.88%, Banks +0.56%, Utilities +0.52% Lagging European Sectors: Chemicals -1.74%, Oil & Gas -1.47%, Basic Res -1.26% CPWM Gabelli 13D - R guides lower - ABTL reverse 1-for-5 split TNAV cfo resigns - GTAT increases facility - BMTI study meets goal Secondaries (announced/priced): CNDO, CNCO, HIS, AEC IPO's: N/A Key Research: Barcap downgrades CIM, Imperial initiates TPC (op), Nomura initiates FB (buy), Piper upgrades TFM Key Research: Canaccord initiates SWKS (buy) & TQNT/RFMD (holds), Telsey initiates ADS/DFS/COF/AXP/V/MA Key Research: GS adds VOW GR & VOD LN to Conviction Buy List & cuts PTEC LN, DB initiates PANL (buy) Key Research: JPM initiates VFC (ow), MS upgrades ONYX, Think initiates MASI (buy), Baird initiates SHW (neut) Key Research: Bofa upgrades JACK, BMO upgrades AIV, Wells downgrades R/RFMD & initiates RDEN/EL (op's) Key Research: MainFirst initiates construction sector (GEBN VX, AFGN SW, SIK SW, WIE AV, STR AV) Key Research: Exane initiates European Retailers (Apparel) Reporting Pre-Open: CCL, DRI, MOC Economic Data: No major releases EFTA00410734 Fed Speakers: Pianalto @ 12:30pm (Cleveland) Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: PM Non-Deal Roadshows: ACGL, ANF, BPFH, BYI, EBIX, ENDP, GSE, HUSKF, MSCC, MTZ, ORB, UPI, URS, XOMA, XOXO Shareholder Meetings: AWI, BBBY, NWLI, CHCI, ERT, KCAP, ORBT, BPZ, SALM, SPPI, ASTX Equity/Mixed Shelfs: AEE, PMT, WRE, SGYP ($250M), SARA ($200M) III 500 change (after close June-28): Monster Beverage (MNST) to replace Sara Lee (SLE) 400 change (after close June-28): Hillshire Brands (HSHwi - post spin Sara Lee stub) to replace Monster Beverage (MNST) III 400 change (after close June-29): Alexander & Baldwin (ALEXwi) to replace Patriot Coal (PCX) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) Barron's< _nocache=20120621214522> WSJ cautious: Chesapeake Energy (CHK) WSJ< EU Banks' Risk in Eyes of Beholder WSJ mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF WSJ EU Banks' Risk in Eyes of Beholder WSJ< U.K. Economy Shows Resilience WSJ Taliban Attack Afghan Hotel WSJ mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories> Prisons, Privatization, Patronage (Paul Krugman Op-Ed) NYT r=1> IMF challenges Berlin's crisis response FTIC 11e1-9aff-00144feabdc0.html@axzzlyPFgSgUf> Madrid moves to ease bailout fears FT< 9436-00144feabdc0.html@axzzlyPFgSgUf> The bank that broke Spain FT analysis< 90e4-00144feabdc0.html@axzzlyPFgSgUf> Legal move threatens EU rescue fund FT< 11e1-90e4-00144feabdc0.html@axzzlyPFgSgUf> Germany infected by deepening eurozone woe FT< bb7d-11e1-9436-00144feabdc0.html@axzzlyPFgSgUf> ECB to relax loan rules for Spanish banks FT< EFTA00410735 bbb4-11e1-9436-00144feabdc0.htmlliaxzzlyPFgSgUf> A good time to buy crisis insurance FT markets< bbbc-11e1-9aff-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzlyPFgSgUf> How effective has QE in the UK been? FT markets< bb8a-11e1-90e4-00144feabdc0.htmlliaxzzlyPFgSgUf> Cut adrift between America and Europe FT columnist< The US must not override EU regulators FT opinion< Desperate Monti needs Merkel summit deal to stop revolt at home Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9347924/Debt-crisis-desperate- Monti-needs-Merkel-summit-deal-to-stop-revolt-at-home.html> The IMF helping the euro is feeding the monster on our doorstep Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/9347171/The-IMF-helping-the-euro-is- feeding-the-monster-on-our-doorstep.html> IMF unveils its blueprint to salvage the stricken euro Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9348292/IMF-unveils-its- blueprint-to-salvage-the-stricken-euro.html> Lagarde hopes that wisdom will prevail in Germany The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3453119.ece> Mario Monti: we have a week to save the eurozone Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/22/mario-monti-week-save-eurozone> Eurozone crisis will cost world's poorest countries $238bn Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/21/eurozone-crisis-cost-poor-countries> Return to capitalism 'red in tooth and claw' spells economic madness Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/jun/21/capitalism-red-tooth- claw-keynes> Mrs Merkel's Germany is Europe's one musketeer Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/21/merke-germany-europe-teutonic> The Market Report: Unilever is back in favour with the City Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/the-market-report-unilever- is-back-in--favour-with-the-city-7873466.html> Impact of iPad on notebook market decreasing, say Taiwan ODMs DigiTimes< Key Events Next Week Monday: Supreme Court ruling on ObamaCare expected this week, Chicago Fed Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing, New Home Sales, GHS 100 Energy Conference (SF), Earnings (APOL) Tuesday: III/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Consumer Confidence, MS Transportation Conference (Chicago), JPM Media CEO Conference (London), Earnings (HRB, ZZ, LDK) Wednesday: Durable s Capital Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales, Opco Consumer Conference (Boston), Earnings (GIS, LEN, MKC, MON, PAYX) Thursday: GDP, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, EU Summit in Brussels, Earnings (FDO, CAN, NKE, RIMM) Friday: Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, Michigan Confidence, EC qtrly report on EFTA00410736 Euro area, Earnings (STZ) Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 • (203) 302-7300 1• mailto: > (Description: Description: cid:image001.png801CBROFB.045D89F0) This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203-302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e- mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA00410737