EFTA01457504.pdf

8 May 2015 Software & Services Alibaba Model updaled:07 May 2016 Racal yew end 31-Mr 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2019E liurirchi rho nuitibms lint/mina! Strom-ma Asia 08 EES ICNY) 5.78 11 80 t2.76 17.86 24.06 30.40 Resorted EPS 9.3091 3.52 990 9.27 10.51 10.37 72.30 China OPS (CNY) 0.00 000 0.00 090 000 000 SVPS (CPIY) 4.0 18.3 526 712 95.0 1238 Software & Services Weighted average slime Ire) 2,294 2,175 2,425 2,521 2.552 2,806 Alibaba Average market cap (CNYmI na n• 1,444260 1,192,321 1,192,321 1122321 Enpronrot virus (CNYm) ne na 1.343.188 1.031.757 988.085 893.373 Routers: BABA .N Bloomberg MBA US ValimN--m Metrics PIE (DO)1q na no 48.7 27.8 20.6 16.3 Buy P/E (Reporeed) (x) ne rot 843 472 303 22.2 Price 16 May 15) USD 80.00 P/BV (x) 0.00 000 9.11 697 528 4.05 largol Price USD 104.00 SCE Yield (34) no ne 29 36 4.9 6.2 Dividend Yield MI ne erl 00 00 0.0 0.0 52 Week range USD 79.54 119.15 EV/Seles lx) nm ran 17.6 101 7.2 5.2 Marker CaP (nil EURm 167.983 EV/EBITOA nm nm 537 790 18.2 12,3 EV/E81T 00 nm leill 593 321 20.0 13.4 USOm 190.720 IniXinat ieN`rritl [Company Prolik, Sala revenue 34.51) 52.504 76.204 101.997 135.293 171,735 Founded in 1999, Mamba leads Ow Chine fetal market Gross prom 25.473 40.159 52.510 72.167 97.558 125010 through Teobee Rhe largest online shopping platiorm in EMMA 11,731 223)3 25.030 35.522 53..195 72.058 China based on GMVI.Trnal (the largest 3rd parry platform DeprethetiOn 675 1,024 140 716 2.099 3.921 for releilersforands in arms of GMV) and Juhuasuan la ronortnabon 305 359 2,245 2.715 2.592 1,898 lead, rg Chne group buy -mg platform) The COMperry eaten EBB 10.751 24,920 22.645 32.151 48.496 69.239 to global wholesale market through Alibaba corn and Net interest meornelesP•me) 2243 4.807 .1.533 447 6405 1.360 China wholesale market through theater,. Akbaba also ASSOC4testattliates tents the global COASUMel market place tea. AllExpress 4 -203 -1.590 -1.293 -1,422 -1.299 and also provides cloud computing services such as data Exceptc.nals/extraorcnanes 0 0 0 0 0 0 mining, processing end storage Other pre ca. ncome/(expensel 894 2,429 2.486 4,453 6,778 8.044 Profit before lax 10.112 26.902 31.836 37.984 52116 93.090 P1Ice Proton-mince Income tax expense 1,457 3.196 6416 9.122 13.296 18.484 Wormers 117 88 59 46 71 79 120 Other post-tax income/Cemeroal -128 -238 -405 0 0 0 110 Net profit 9,404 23,078 23,366 27.484 43,328 60,229 100 08 adjustments (includmg CalUtiOn) 5.348 4.446 8.788 19.236 20.347 21.882 90 06 Net profit 13.752 27,522 32,154 48.720 63.675 82.111 80 !Cash now (CNYml 70 Se 4 Mar "5 Cash Sow horn opererons 14.476 22379 49.288 52.463 71.402 90.850 Net Capt.( -2402 4776 -7.620 -7.660 -8.794 -10.304 Amin 114$040 '00171•444440 Free cash flow 12,274 21,0)3 41.007 44.813 62.608 93.546 Equity isisearthought backl -28.349 -3.425 82.319 0 0 0 Margin in Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nat mold/eel in borrowings 28.932 12.789 23.000 0 .30030 0 52 Other investingthroncing cant 'lows 2.082 -28.318 41.524 -2.040 -2.706 4.435 48 Net Cash flow 13.539 2,649 65.462 42.773 29,902 77.112 44 Change in acrkingea4001 AM 4,692 4751 2,248 2.985 2,842 40 36 Pala:lr e Sheut iC N int! 32 Gish and other Nord ante 34.093 37.966 98.507 141.280 171.182 248.294 28 Tangible fixed Mean 3.808 5.581 10.992 15.211 19,314 23.799 13 4 IS I6E r In 18E GoodwilVintang.ble assets 13.523 15,358 44589 41,874 39.282 37.384 MUM Melee . li ttirr mane Assaccteshnvestrnents 5,341 30,340 82,377 85,297 69,139 73,917 Other assets 7,031 22403 11,387 9.774 11.508 13.405 Claurth TOW assets 63.786 111.549 227.852 273.437 310.429 399.699 Irnerest bearing debt 33.101 41,075 52055 54.811 24.811 24,811 so Other liabilities 19.639 29.656 31,422 38.181 44015 47.998 60 Total IctrIrtuas 52,740 70,731 89,477 90,992 66)3213 72.809 Shareholders' equity 10.509 39,738 137,237 181.242 242.325 322.538 40 MulOritate 537 1,079 1.138 1.203 1,274 1.353 20 TOW tharahOldeff equity 11,046 40.818 139,375 182.445 243199 323.891 Abe debt -982 4709 -44452 44489 -148,377 -223,083 0 IKEV Company Mettrx sres growth Ciki 72.4 52.1 45.1 33.8 32.6 269 eve ereeilh (U1S1 roe are 08 EPS growth MI 141.4 105.0 8.1 40.0 34.7 26.4 EBITDA Margin Did 34.0 50.1 322 349 39.3 42.0 EDIT Mersin (M) 31.1 47.5 29.7 31.5 35.8 38.6 20 50 Payout ratio (14) 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0 40 ROE BS) 40.0 81.8 26.4 17 3 20.5 21.3 -20 37 Cromaeles (14) 7.3 91 10.0 7.5 6.5 6.0 Capexklapreciabon Ix) 3.1 3.6 3A 2.2 1.9 18 20 Net debtrormity 49 7.6 49.2 47 4 -60.1 -03.0 .60 10 Net interest cover CO 7.0 45.6 nm nm ern mini 0 13 14 15 16E 17E 19E Smart Company ham Deursch• Sant avenue ea witues.er Nei inner Con. lorth llklll Hu , , Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0117074 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_002632S8 EFTA01457504