EFTA01802979.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba MINNIMIS Sent: Tuesday, February 3, 2015 1:50 AM To: jeffrey E. Cc: Vahe Stepanian Subject: FW: Asia Pacific Spot Trading Morning Report Impacts of RBA cut</=:p> c=p> Charl DeVleeschauwer On Behalf Of DBSpot Trading Sent: Monday, February 02, 2015 7:02 PM Subject: Asia Pacific Spot Trading Morning Report<=p> Ryan Shearman O=en 0.7800 Support 0.7700 &n=sp;Resistance 0.7850 • 25 bp cut - AUD drops 1.5-2% initially (- 120/150 usd pips) to the firs= point of liquidity and then continues to grind lower over the course of t=e session as further cuts are priced for 2015. Despite the market seemingly positioned short into the number, there will be quest=ons about the extent to which the economy has deteriorated in such a short=space of time as Stevens was very much neutral last we heard from him. Cou=d also simply be jumping on the global easing bandwagon, despite being a tad late to the party. • Rates unch, removal of 'period of stability in interest rates= - reaction in spot less clear, I imagine the headli=e unch will see spot rally towards the 0.7830/60 levels but when the market =igests the rhetoric (especially if the RBA flags downside risks to growth =nd inflation) it will subsequently sell off. This is a messy outcome, but in my mind most l=kely. Could potentially settle 1% lower and then we evaluate th=reafter. • Rates unch, keep 'period of stability in interest rates' - AUD rallies aggressively, probably 2% initially before =aking out 0.80 figure. Unlikely scenario in my mind given market pricing at the =oment and the RBA's view that the AUD needs to be lower. will be c=gnisant of pricing heading into meeting (despite usually not given a damn)=and the likely reaction in spot should the statement be similar to the last. • First resistance level on the day at the former YT0 lows round 0=7850/60, first level of support at the current YTD lows round 0.7720. Mark=t pricing in a move of - 140 usd pips, thus the b/evens on the straddle come in round 0.7660 and 0.7940 (assuming we are ro=nd 0.78 figure heading into the number) EUR Chris Routledge O=en 1.1340 Support 1.1098 &n=sp;Resistance 1.1370 • Euro=rallied after the weaker US ISM data touching a high of 1.1363. The short =erm range 1.1270-1.1370 seems to be holding well as various crosses push t=rough Euro. Market seems happy to sit on the sidelines till Fridays data. Overall bias is to fade any rally towards the upper par= of recent ranges. • EC a=d Italian CPI due in Europe and US factory orders tonight EFTA_R1_00146119 EFTA01802979 " Expe=ted range during APAC 1.1315-1.1365 JPY Masaaki Shinotsuka =nbsp; &=bsp; Open 117.62 &nb=p; Support 117.00(115.50) = Resistance 118.10(119.50)=/i> &=bsp; " USD.I=Y was volatile but sideline in 117's. Long gamma player dominate th= market instantly. • Eyes=on RBA decision today, and it will effect USDJPY as AUDJPY move. The=rate cut decision may drag USDJPY lower as AUDJPY slide off. • 115.=0 is the neckline of double top chart. 119.50 is the resistance line from =op at Dec 8th high. • Acco=ding to DTCC, there are lots of USDJPY expire today. DTCC reports 6.= yards at 116, and 3 yards at 118.00. • Fed'= IIIIIIIIIIRdiscusses Economics in Newark, Delaware • Focu= on RBA today and Friday NFP obviously. NZD Charl de Vleeschauwer Open 1.2580 Support 1.250= Resistance 1.2650 • Shar= move lower in USDCAD overnight, oil edging closer to $50/bl • No d=ubt there was a fair degree of profit taking, it has been very much one wa= post the surprise cut " Cana=ian payrolls later in the week the main domestic focus<M> CHF Chris Routledge <=r> Open 1.0525,0.9280 Support 1.0200,0=9000 Resistance 1.1000,0.9500 " Euro=Swiss firmed throughout the sessions after the weekend report of a possibl= corridor between 1.05-1.10, coupled with the weaker PMI report sent =the cross to a high of 1.0591. Retracements from the high seem to be around a big figure each time, so i think any of these dips can=represent some opportunity to buy. " Doll=r wise the 200 day still proving to be a decent resistance (even wit= the brief break above last night) as we open just below today. A daily cl=sing above will be a clear enough signal to be long. • Expe=ted range today 1.0500-1.0600, 0.9240-0.9300 GBP Chris Routledge &nbs=; Open 1. 5035,0.7540 Support 1.4950,=.7450 Resistance 1.5250,0.7600 • EURO=GBP led the move during early London as a large buy order went through the=market, The cross lifting 60 points from the levels seen during our time y=sterday. Cable still choppy in a wider range 1.4950-1.5250, look to buy the bottom part of this range for now. =li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-=It:auto;mso-list:I9 levell Ifol0"> Expe=ted ranges during APAC , 1.5000.1.5050, 0.7520.0.7550 2 EFTA_R1_00146120 EFTA01802980 Fx Spot Trading Deutsche Bank London New York Sydney + Please Note - This email is distributed for information pu=poses only and does not constitute research nor is it not intended as such= The information has been prepared by Deutsche Bank Global Markets Sales & Trading desks. The information contained in this docum=nt is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not repr=sent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. This document =oes not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. This material =oes not represent a formal or official view of Deutsche Bank as the views =xpressed herein are solely those of the author(s), which may differ from t=ose of Deutsche Bank Research &nb=p; &=bsp; This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_00146121 EFTA01802981