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Politics: Nightcap View this email in your browser (http://us11.campaign-archive1.com/?u=47c9040f6ff957a59bd88396e&id=14065c50f6&e=531c496baa) May 2, 2016 by Eric Bradner Welcome to the CNN Politics Nightcap and good Monday night from Indianapolis. Ted Cruz faces what could be his last shot to prove his message resonates broadly within the Republican Party in the Hoosier State's key Tuesday primary. Donald Trump, meanwhile, is hoping to put a cork in the talk of him not reaching 1,237 delegates before the GOP convention with a win. Hillary Clinton is downplaying expectations in a state she won in 2008, while Bernie Sanders looks to boost his argument to go on in the Democratic contest. Your bartender is Eric Bradner (http://www.cnn.com/profiles/eric-bradner?cid=nl_pol_071915_profile?sr=nl_pol_072215_bradner) . The tip jar: [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) . ** Cruz scrambles to reverse his fortunes in do-or-die Indiana ------------------------------------------------------------ Ted Cruz is getting the one-on-one shot he's always wanted against Donald Trump in Indiana's Tuesday primary. But with polls showing Trump ahead, the Texas senator could be poised to confront a harsh reality that has kept him from achieving his promise to unite the party: His inability to reach economic conservatives. In Indiana, Cruz played hard to his socially conservative base. But many of the Indiana Republicans he'll need Tuesday are already exhausted by years of social battles. Making things even tougher, the biggest pool of winnable voters -- suburban moderates in the doughnut counties around Indianapolis -- didn't fall neatly into Cruz's camp, as he hoped they would after he struck a deal to have John Kasich skip Indiana. The Texas senator's efforts to address that weakness with economic conservatives, many Indiana Republican operatives told Nightcap, fell short. His economic message in Indiana largely involved borrowing Trump’s talking points about a local manufacturer, Carrier, that plans to shift 2,100 jobs to Mexico, and he waited until Monday to dispatch Carly Fiorina to work those suburbs. Cruz tried every trick in his book -- from naming a running mate (Fiorina) to recreating a scene from "Hoosiers" to turning Gov. Mike Pence's (tepid (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/29/the-remarkable-lameness-of-mike-pences-ted-cruz-endorsement/) ) endorsement into a TV ad. Cruz's closing message: "I trust the people of Indiana to differentiate. ... We are not a bitter, angry, petty, bigoted people. That is not America. I reject that vision of America," he said in Osceola. Trump set the stakes for the primary during a rally in Carmel, saying: "If we win Indiana, it’s over. It’s over. It’s finished. They’re gone." My story on the final day of campaigning in the Hoosier State (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-indiana-primary/index.html) . Cruz sparred with a Trump supporter on live national television in Marion. In a seven-minute conversation, Cruz asked his heckler to name one thing that he liked about Trump. When the man named "the wall," Cruz said: "Hold on. He told The New York Times editorial board he's not going to build the wall or deport anyone." The man shouted in his face: "Lyin' Ted!" And Cruz responded, "Civilized people don't yell. Sir, with all respect, Trump is deceiving you. He is playing you for a chump. Ask yourself two questions: Why is it that the mainstream media wants Donald Trump to be the nominee? And why is it that John Boehner supports Donald Trump?" More on the scene from CNN's Betsy Klein (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-indiana-protester/index.html) . ** Democrats: Clinton downplays Indiana as Sanders seeks win ------------------------------------------------------------ Hillary Clinton visited Hammond and Mishawaka last week, and Indianapolis on Sunday, but make no mistake: Her campaign is trying as hard as possible to look like one that's about to lose Tuesday's primary. Clinton's camp didn't air a television ad in Indiana. It opened only five offices. And she held just one rally and two invite-only events. Spokesman Brian Fallon sought to portray Indiana as a must-win for Bernie Sanders on Monday, and pointed out that it is a largely white state, saying, "He has spent millions of dollars in Indiana. We haven’t been up at all here in Indiana. Indiana is also a state, in terms of tomorrow, where, demographically and the fact it is an open primary, it resembles very closely a lot of the states where he has had his biggest wins." The latest poll had Clinton up 4 points. But Fallon said the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/indiana-poll-trump-clinton-ahead/) doesn't track with the campaign's internals, saying even a 4-point lead "probably overstates it from our perspective in terms of our standing there." Why is Clinton's camp so dour? The Michigan loss taught her aides something about expectations management. But she defeated Barack Obama in Indiana in 2008. It's no brush-off state: The Democratic establishment here is behind her. If her aides are convinced she can't win, the question is: Why not? A loss could suggest Clinton hasn't yet turned the corner with white, working-class voters. Sanders boasted in Fort Wayne Monday night about taking on the "most powerful political organization in the country." He said -- as he often does -- that his hopes ride on a large voter turnout. And Indiana could give it to him: The state's primary is open, which means independents can participate in it. For Sanders, that's a welcome change from the last six East Coast contests. Buzzing The guy in blue face paint was really feeling the Bern in Fort Wayne. Last Call ** In West Virginia, Clinton apologizes for coal miner remarks ------------------------------------------------------------ Hillary Clinton backtracked from her comments a month ago that she'd put coal companies "out of business" (http://money.cnn.com/video/news/economy/2016/03/14/hillary-clinton-coal-miners.cnnmoney/) in a roundtable in West Virginia. Bo Copley, a coal miner who lost his job, confronted Clinton about her comments. Copley apologized for pro-coal protesters outside, but asked Clinton how she could have made comments about putting coal miners out of work and then "come in here and tell us how you're going to be our friend." He said: "Those people out there don't see you as a friend." That's when Clinton apologized, saying her "out of business" remark was a "misstatement" taken out of context. “What I was saying is that the way things are going now, we will continue to lose jobs. That’s what I meant to say,” she said, promising Copley she'd do "whatever I can regardless of whether people are yelling at me and whether people are misrepresenting me or whether people are not looking at everything I say and taking something out of context. That’s part of it, I understand that. But I’m going to get up every single day trying to figure out what to do to help you provide the kind of future for your children that they deserve to have." ** California GOP unhappy with Cleveland convention cheap seats ------------------------------------------------------------ From CNN's Tom LoBianco (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/california-republicans-cleveland-sandusky/index.html) : California Republicans are chafing at the cheap seats they're getting for the Republican National Convention in Cleveland -- not the nosebleeds in the upper decks of the Quicken Loans Arena, but the hotel in Sandusky, Ohio, where they're staying: 60. Miles. Away. While the rest of the Republican Party will be catching cabs back to their luxurious Cleveland digs, the 800 or so California Republicans will be catching buses back, complete with a police escort to Sandusky. "We're pretty bitter about that," said Harmeet Dhillon, vice chairwoman of the California Republican Party. "It sucks to be California, we're like the ugly stepchild. They need us for our cash and our donors, they don't need us for anything else." ** Eyes on 2020: Why Marco Rubio hasn't endorsed Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ Marco Rubio has already rented his fundraising list to Ted Cruz, praised him as "the only conservative" still running for president and worked to keep the delegates he won from falling into Donald Trump's hands. So why hasn't the Florida senator endorsed Cruz? It's in no small part about 2020, reports Politico's Marc Caputo (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-endorsement-222686) . Rubio's bet is that Trump will lose, and he and Cruz could find themselves running against each other in another primary -- with Cruz now armed with footage of Rubio praising him. Rubio's own explanation? “At this point, No. 1, it’s not a year where endorsements matter very much,” he told Caputo. “And No. 2: I’ll just let it play itself out and work through it. I really want to come back and focus 100% on my work in the Senate.” ** CNN poll: Americans agree Clinton, Trump headed for a faceoff ------------------------------------------------------------ From CNN's Jennifer Agiesta (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html) : According to a new CNN/ORC Poll out Monday, 84% of voters nationwide think Donald Trump will lead the Republican ticket in November, while 85% say the same about Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. The national Republican numbers: Trump has 49% support to Ted Cruz's 25% and John Kasich's 19%. Among those not already backing Trump, nearly half say the GOP front-runner is their second choice: 43% of non-Trump voters say that if the candidate they support doesn't get the nomination, Trump is their backup. About a third choose either Kasich or Cruz and 15% say their second choice is someone other than the remaining three candidates. Trump also prompts the most enthusiasm of the remaining three candidates: 39% say they will be enthusiastic if he wins the nomination, 21% would feel that way about Cruz and 16% about Kasich. More say they would be dissatisfied or upset with Cruz (45%) or Kasich (39%) than say the same about Trump (33%). On the Democratic side, Clinton leads, 51% to Bernie Sanders' 43% -- about where the race stood in March. Straight Up ** "Cruz didn't do anything! Even I would have helped her, OK?" ------------------------------------------------------------ ** -- Donald Trump in Carmel, Indiana, describing a moment Sunday when Carly Fiorina fell off a stage (http://theslot.jezebel.com/heres-ted-cruz-pretending-he-doesnt-see-carly-fiorina-f-1774249739) as Ted Cruz and his family walked onstage. ------------------------------------------------------------ Tipsy Canada's 44-year-old Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, got in (https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/727207562479734784) on the social media war (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/29/politics/invictus-games-obama-michelle-queen-prince-harry/) between President Barack Obama and Britain's royal family -- and showed off a bit on his own -- with a mic-drop video ahead of the Invictus Games, an international event where wounded, injured or sick armed services members and veterans compete in sports. Closing Time Back to work? Not quite: The Senate is on pace for its lightest schedule (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/senate-light-work-schedule-222460) in 60 years in 2016. ... Donald Trump lunched (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/278413-trump-lunches-with-anti-clinton-author) at Shapiro's deli in Indianapolis with Ed Klein, the author of books critical of the Clintons. ... EMILY's List's strategy is being questioned after it went 1-for-5 (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/after-rough-week-critics-take-aim-at-emilys-list) in Democratic primaries last week. 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