EFTA01200026.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba c To: jeevacationggmail.com Cc: Paul Morris c Subject: Re: Commodity currencies: bullish reversals in BRL... [C] Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2015 21:54:11 +0000 Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed(I) Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - per our chat, please see USDBRL chart attached for the past 5 years. 2.8000 2.7060 2.6000 T High on 12/16/14 2.7387 -0- Average 1.9836 1 Low on 07/26/11 1.5391 2.4000 2.2000 2.0000 1.8000 1.6000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 21 SDBRL Qrncy (USD-BRL X-RATE) Daily 063AN2010-05JAN2015 Copyright0 2015 Bloomberg Finance . 05-Jan-201516:53:43 From: Daniel Sabba/db(dbcom To: [email protected]. Cc: Paul Morris. Date: 01/0512015 11:38AM Subject: Commodity currencies: bullish reversals in BRL... [C) Classification: Confidential Jeffrey, Happy new year.This idea looks particularly interesting to USDBRL. Indicative pricing and rationale below: Notional: USD 10mm Expiry: 6m Client buys USDBRL put / sells USDBRLcall Put strike: 2.70 Call strike: 3.10 Net Premium Offer: Zero (mid of put $162.5k and mid on call is $175k) Spot ref. 2.7210 6m forward ref : 2.8560 / 2.8635 EFTA01200026 Rationale: • Given the recent downward move in commodities, commodity linked currencies have experienced increased volatility and marked depreciation vs. USD (see historical price chart below) • Affected commodity linked currency pairs include AUDUSD, USDBRL, USDCAD, USDMXN, and USDNOK • Premium neutral bullish risk reversals on commodity currencies can take advantage of implied vol, skew and forward dynamics (i.e. client buys foreign currency call and sells foreign currency put) • Looking at volatility adjusted skew amongst commodity currencies, current USDBRL levels provide a compelling entry point into premium neutral risk reversals. Commodity Currencies and Oil - 6 month Normalized Performance 110% 110% 100% 100% —MUSD — 515HUSO 80% —AMMO — HOKUM — CADUSD 70% 70% Cand0/ 50% 50% 7/2/2014 8/2/2014 9/2/2014 10/2/2014 11/2/2014 /2/2/2014 1/2/2015 NW Other commodity currencies: While for USDBRL call strike is about 14% away from spot while put is about 1% away, for USDMXN the call strike would be approximately 8% away while put strike would be 3% away from spot. Best regards, Daniel Daniel Sabba Key Client Partners Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Te Mobil Email -This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. EFTA01200027