The Daily 202 P.M. Special: Trump vs. Cruz, and other dynamics to watch in tonight’s Republican debate

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on the Web: <http://link.washingtonpost.com/view/5483d5bc3b35d0d76d8c549c3ex1j.abu6/31602488> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - THE DAILY 202 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - By James Hohmann - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Share on Twitter: <http://link.washingtonpost.com/click/5734855.481902/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS8_c3RhdHVzPUNoZWNrJTIwb3V0JTIwVGhlRGFpbHkyMDIlMjBmcm9tJTIwJTQwUG93ZXJQb3N0JTIwaHR0cDovL2xpbmsud2FzaGluZ3RvbnBvc3QuY29tL3B1YmxpYy81NzM0ODU1JndwbW09MSZ3cGlzcmM9bmxfZGFpbHkyMDI/5483d5bc3b35d0d76d8c549cC043e14ab> Share on Facebook: <http://link.washingtonpost.com/click/5734855.481902/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZmFjZWJvb2suY29tL3NoYXJlci5waHA_dT1odHRwOi8vbGluay53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vcHVibGljLzU3MzQ4NTUmd3BtbT0xJndwaXNyYz1ubF9kYWlseTIwMg/5483d5bc3b35d0d76d8c549cC57f68556> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - THE DAILY 202 P.M. SPECIAL: TRUMP VS. CRUZ, AND OTHER DYNAMICS TO WATCH IN TONIGHT’S REPUBLICAN DEBATE <http://link.washingtonpost.com/click/5734855.481902/aHR0cDovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vbmV3cy9wb3dlcnBvc3Qvd3AvMjAxNS8xMi8xNS90aGUtZGFpbHktMjAyLXAtbS1zcGVjaWFsLXRydW1wLXZzLWNydXotYW5kLW90aGVyLWR5bmFtaWNzLXRvLXdhdGNoLWluLXRvbmlnaHRzLXJlcHVibGljYW4tZGViYXRlLz93cG1tPTEmd3Bpc3JjPW5sX2RhaWx5MjAy/5483d5bc3b35d0d76d8c549cC46d5855a> Ted Cruz overlooks the Las Vegas Strip. (Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images) THE BIG IDEA: — It’s fight night in Las Vegas. Republican presidential candidates will debate for the fifth and final time of 2015 on CNN. The undercard debate, featuring four low-polling candidates, starts at 6 p.m. Eastern and the main event begins at 9 p.m. Though, to gin up ratings and advertising revenue, CNN annoyingly keeps hinting that it could start closer to 8:30. If you want to optimize your debate-viewing experience tonight, definitely keep The Post’s live blog open on your browser tonight. As always, we’re flooding the zone. We deployed six political reporters and two editors to the venue in Vegas, not to mention videographers, producers and columnists. We’re also excited because this is the first debate night in our brand new office on K Street, where a team of fact checkers is standing by to hold the candidates accountable for their inevitable misstatements and embellishments. You can follow our live blog here. — What are the pros watching for? I checked in with my colleagues on the politics team about what they’re following tonight. Dan Balz, our chief correspondent, sums it up: “You have a national frontrunner in Donald Trump but you have Ted Cruz now as the person rising rapidly in Iowa and potentially poised to deliver the first setback to Trump. That, along with Cruz’s closed-door criticism of Trump last week, makes for a pretty compelling dynamic for tonight’s debate. But think of the other potential face-offs beyond Trump v Cruz. There’s Christie v Trump; Rubio v Cruz; Cruz v Paul; Rubio v Trump; and Bush v you name it. But in many ways it’s still Trump v the field. Who has the most at stake tonight? Probably Cruz, Christie and Rubio.” Signs outside the Venetian hotel (Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images) –The attacks in Paris and San Bernardino happened since the last debate five weeks ago, making terrorism extra salient. Matea Gold wonders: “Who emerges as the strongest and most credible voice on national security? I’m interested in seeing whether any of the candidates will manage to address the fear among Americans of another attack while also conveying calm and optimism. Or do they seek to ramp up the unease?” Karen Tumulty thinks we’ll see a substantive debate play out about how to balance security and civil liberties: “The media and pundit class focus is going to be on verbal sparring and one-liners, but if you listen carefully, you are likely to hear deeper, and more substantive differences among the candidates on the basic question of America’s role in a world that many of its citizens find to be a scarier and scarier place these days. Everyone will agree on the need to destroy ISIS, but the candidates part ways on the question of when and where and how the United States should use its military, as well as other tools of foreign policy. We are seeing deeper differences among the GOP candidates this cycle on those choices than we have in the past.” Donald Trump hands the podium over to a father whose son was murdered in a crime during a rally in Vegas last night. (Reuters/Mike Blake) –Trump is a wild card: “Here’s the dirty little secret of the Republican race: Donald Trump is a bad debater,” writes Chris Cillizza. “In the first four debates, he’s seemed bored, distracted, poorly briefed and, well, a little behind the times. And, as Philip Bump wrote on The Fix today, he’s dipped in the polls after each of the debates. It hasn’t mattered much so far — Trump is as high as he has ever been — but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s been a bad debater. I’m interested to see if he has practiced or worked on it at all since the last one. Probably not, knowing him. But he’d be smart to recognize that debating is a major weakness for him in this race.” Editor Amy Gardner wonders how Trump will handle a question about slipping in Iowa polling: “He’s no longer unequivocally on top, and the world will be watching to see how he deals with that.” Jenna Johnson, who has been traveling with The Donald, wonders what the other candidates will say about blocking Muslims from entering the U.S. since fresh polling shows most GOP primary voters support it. “The expectation is that this will be the debate where GOP establishment candidates like Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie will go after Trump on policy issues and present themselves as more qualified, prepared, serious candidates — but they do so at their own peril, as attacking Trump comes with the risk that it will only strengthen his popularity and support. … I’m interested to see if the other candidates use this as an opportunity to go after Trump or if they just leave the (Muslim) issue alone. In the past few debates, Trump has largely refrained from attacking his opponents unless directly attacked first — and it will be interesting to see if that continues tonight.” Remember: In the last debate when everyone thought Trump would go after Ben Carson during the debate, and he did not. It’s always possible he could take a pass on going after Cruz, messing up a lot of the b-matter that’s been written ahead of time. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump at their joint rally against the Iran nuclear deal in September. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst) —How does Cruz deal with attacks from Trump and his newfound status as Iowa frontrunner? “So far this month, as Cruz’s rise in the polls has picked up steam, Trump’s made the relatively quick journey from delivering offhand, somewhat-unenthusiastic Cruz compliments, to delivering Cruz insults disguised as compliments, to delivering Cruz insults that look like insults,” writes editor Rebecca Sinderbrand. “Meanwhile, the Texas senator has made a slower, parallel journey of his own.” “Trump tends to try out a few lines of attack until he finds one that sticks — and he’s floated at least half a dozen Cruz hits this week alone. So far, they’ve fallen into a few main categories: attacks that paint Cruz as a phony; attacks that paint him as a corrupt phony; and attacks that paint him as a possibly emotional, definitely sycophantic beta male … Cruz won’t want to let the beta male charge — the Trump claim that he’ll agree with anything that comes out of the billionaire’s mouth — go unanswered, even as he won’t want to get sucked into an angry on-stage moment. So it’s possible the question tonight may be less whether he pushes back at Trump than how. The counteroffensive strategies [Cruz] uses on stage tonight will provide a preview of how he’s likely to handle the challenge on his upcoming dozen-state blitz.” — Katie Zezima, who covers the Texas senator’s campaign, will also be monitoring the Cruz v Rubio dynamic: “Will he go after Rubio on policy, as he has been doing, and ignore what will likely be an inevitable attack from Trump? Cruz can’t cut to a clip from ‘Flashdance’ – as his campaign tweeted out when Trump called him a ‘maniac’ – while standing on the debate stage. Cruz’s team has said they will only respond to substantive attacks (ones on policy), and it will be interesting to see what Cruz sees as the substance threshold when it comes to Trump.” Marco Rubio in New Hampshire. (AP Photo/Cheryl Senter) — “Republican voters are angry. Marco Rubio wants them to know that he gets it and feels it,” writes Sean Sullivan, who is covering the Florida senator’s campaign. “Easier said than done at a time when Trump and Cruz have excelled at that better than anyone else in the field. At a campaign rally and in a new TV commercial on Monday, Rubio’s message was that there is plenty of reason to be upset about the direction of country and that he holds the key to turning things around. But campaigns are not run in a vacuum. A big question for Rubio tonight is whether he can punch that point standing a few feet away from Trump and Cruz.” Jeb Bush gets a touchup as Chris Christie looks on during a commercial break at the first Republican debate in Cleveland on Aug. 6, (Reuters/Brian Snyder) — Ed O’Keefe is curious to see how Christie takes advantage of his return to the primetime stage and whether Jeb can create a moment. “Bush now mocks debates as ‘performances’ – by that measure, his performance has improved over the course of the debate process,” Ed writes. “But is there anything he can do tonight to stand out – and make a brief standout moment stick in the minds of voters?”    Rand Paul debates at the Milwaukee Theatre on Nov. 11. (AP Photo/Morry Gash) –How does Rand Paul staying on the main stage change the dynamic? “Everybody knows that Rand got into this debate like Indiana Jones rolling out of a cave before the trap door slams,” quips David Weigel. “It was close. In Las Vegas, it’s even sort of an in-joke: Organizers for the “undercard” debate had grudgingly expected Paul to push his way back into prime time at the last minute, saving his campaign but punishing their ratings and drama. “Had Paul missed the debate, Cruz might have been able to establish himself as the most electable candidate for the ‘libertarian lane’ of Republican voters,” Weigel adds. “I saw him do as much yesterday at the Nevada National Security Summit, where (via video) he defined himself between the left that responds to terror with gun control bills, and the right that responds with calls for more NSA surveillance. Cruz can still try this, but I am watching to see how Paul accentuates the differences between them on privacy and national security. He is completely confident that he can out-argue Rubio and Christie on those topics; whether or not the reality comports with that, I expect him to try. “At the same time, I expect Cruz to take none of the bait tossed his way by Paul or Trump. Cruz is better-liked among many voters who support both of those candidates, and accordingly he can pivot from any attack to his preferred message, looking gracious not week.” Ben Carson speaks in Michigan last week. (David Guralnick/Detroit News via AP) — Can Carson force his way back into the conversation? “The retired neurosurgeon has seen his poll numbers dramatically decline in the last month, falling from second place (just behind Trump) to tying for third or fourth in most national polls,” notes Jose DelReal, who has been traveling with him. “The primary driver: the Paris and San Bernardino attacks, which have made national security the top issue … The retired neurosurgeon has tried to close his foreign policy credibility gap in town halls and rallies around the country, talking about visiting two refugee camps in Jordan and announcing a foreign policy team last week. On the stump, he now regularly references several geopolitically significant sites while talking about terrorism: Raqqa, Syria; Sinjar, Iraq; and Mosul, Iraq. Carson has received poll bumps after the last several debates, moving huge social media numbers even as critics have failed to detect any breakout moments. Whether he invites similar results after this debate will heavily depend on whether he can reassure voters he would be fit to keep the nation safe.” Carly Fiorina campaigns at Georgia Tech last week. (AP Photo/John Bazemore) — “Carly Fiorina made it on to the big debate stage: congrats!” writes Abby Phillip, who has been following her closely. “Now it’s for her to stand out and be noticed or risk falling deeper into obscurity.” — Once again, please follow The Post’s debate live blog tonight. You can read it here. Paul Ryan (Allison Shelley/Getty Images) OMNIBUS UPDATE FROM CAPITOL HILL:  Lawmakers are still working this evening to complete a $1.1 trillion spending and tax package to fund the government through September 2016. House Republicans have scheduled a meeting at 9 p.m. tonight to discuss the status of the talks. Harry Reid says the deal is being held up because of disagreements over a plan to lift the 40-year ban on oil exports and proposed changes to the Child Tax Credit, Kelsey Snell relays. “Republican leaders have not accepted a request from Democrats to increase tax breaks for renewable energy producers in exchange for agreeing to lift the oil export ban.” But they’re also arguing about GOP demands to limit fraud in the tax credit program that Democrats believe would negatively affect low-income workers. Ocean conservation is also being debated. If there’s a deal, the House is expected to go first, voting late Thursday. Senate Republicans will meet tomorrow discuss it. Lawmakers will need to pass another short-term funding bill to prevent the government from shutting down tomorrow. SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ: — ZIGNAL VISUAL: Since the last debate, there have been more than 15 million Tweets, 532,000 news articles and 422,000 television mentions of the GOP field. Of course, most of that, 12 million total crossmedia mentions, have been about Trump, according to our analytics partners at Zignal Labs. Trump is more of a media sensation than ever before. The chart below shows all Trump mentions since his campaign launched six months ago. Note that the media attention lavished on Trump now is at an all-time high: Separately, a Twitter spokesman emails that last week was the most-Tweeted-about, non-debate week of the campaign, and the highest level of Twitter conversation about Trump since we started counting back in July. There were about 3.5 million Tweets sent last week mentioning Trump, which is about double his weekly average.” Cruz’s rise in the polls has been followed by more media coverage. Others like Carson and Fiorina have fallen back as the Iowa Caucuses approach. The chart below shows how mentions of Carson have fallen off dramatically since the last debate: — The five most talked about political topics on Facebook in the United States since the last debate: Religion Iraq, Syria and ISIS Homeland Security and Terrorism Guns Immigration The chart below shows the number of unique people on Facebook in the U.S. engaging in the conversation about each of the candidates – as well as the number of interactions those people made. A Facebook spokesman explains that interactions are the total aggregate number of likes, posts, comments and shares made about a particular candidate within the timeframe. One way to say this, for example, is that in the last month, 1.9 million people in the U.S. on Facebook posted about, shared content, liked or commented on content about Marco Rubio more than 4.6 million times: — The best of pre-debate social media, curated by Elise Viebeck: Philip Rucker spotted a Trump impersonator: (philiprucker) The RNC’s Sean Spicer posted photos of the venue: (seanmspicer) Including the massive press filing center: (seanmspicer) Cruz retweeted this post from a supporter (Trump’s “maniac” comment seems to have stuck): (@caseyscomment) John Kasich is making use of Snapchat: (@JohnKasich) Marco Rubio did a walk-through: (marcorubiofla) Trump sent a barrage of tweets attacking Fox News: (@RealDonaldTrump) (@RealDonaldTrump) (@RealDonaldTrump) He also quoted Piers Morgan on the possibility of a Trump vs. Hillary Clinton general election debate: (@RealDonaldTrump) Jeb Bush hawked campaign gear (10 percent off!): (@JebBush) In Las Vegas, Trump met with The Remembrance Project, a group that honors people killed by undocumented immigrants: (realDonaldTrump) Rand Paul stood for a television hit: (drrandpaul) VIDEOS OF THE DAY: Supporters of Cruz AND Rubio created videos for their candidates based on the “Star Wars” trailer: (2conservatives) (Andrew Varvel) Carson greeted voters en route to Las Vegas, saying any foreign policy questions tonight will be a “slam dunk”: (RealBenCarson) Independent Journal filmed Fiorina explaining why dogs are better than cats: (Independent Journal) — A final plug for The Post’s debate live blog tonight. 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