EFTA01452621.pdf

28 January 2014 Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges Alternative Asset Manager Initiation Investment Summary 3 Strong cyclical & secular trends should drive further outperformance for Ms over the next 12 months 3 Five key themes to drive the stocks this year 4 Differentiating the Alts 7 Business mix differences across the firms 10 Theme I 18 How should the alternative asset managers be valued? 18 Theme II 25 Is rising demand for alternatives secular or cyclical? 25 Theme III 27 Where do we stand in the private equity cycle? 27 Theme IV 29 How is the complexion and role of the Alts changing? 29 Theme V 30 What are the near-term and long-term risks for these stocks, especially after surging prices in 2013? 30 Apollo Global Management 33 Outlook 34 Valuation 34 Risks 34 Company summary 35 The Blackstone Group 40 Outlook 41 Valuation 41 Risks 41 Company summary 42 The Carlyle Group 49 Outlook 50 Valuation 50 Risks 50 Company summary 51 KKR & Co 57 Outlook 58 Valuation 58 Risks 58 Company summary 59 Oaktree Capital Group 64 Outlook 65 Valuation 65 Risks 65 Company summary 66 Pdyi• Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0109769 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY GM_00255953 EFTA01452621