EFTA01461042.pdf

to 40S/bbl, he would not see a need for OPEC to cut production. In other news, the forties stream is having some technical issues, with Buzzard production halted. Furthermore, Libyan fighting over the weekend has shut the ES Sider terminal and possibly the Ras Lanuf terminal, which is causing the production of the 160kbd Wafa field and some other smaller fields; this puts Libyan production below 400kbd. There was also a 3 day Nigerian oil worker strike that started today. There are no apparent loading delays yet but there are rumors that the NNPC did not approve any new loadings today.Also, the NSEA window was bid today with Jan 7-10 forties being bid up to +35 cents. BRE spreads took notice and rallied sharply, with the prompt BRE spread trading up to -13cents.Quite close to backwardation! In products land, European distillate was weak again, with the prompt gasoil crack trading below 13S. US distillate on the other hand was extremely bid, with cash trading strong. OIL VOLS oil vols rallied aggressively today as we made new lows in both crudes. WTI vols rallied more than BRE vols. 20d puts vs 20d calls rallied another 3 vols in H1 2015, although we did see some faint interest in selling prompt puts in BRE towards the end of the day. The back end of the curve was quieter, although we did see some interest in selling z16 100SWTI calls. Overall, the market is panicked about further downside and everyone is short. So until we stop dropping for a while, it's hard to see vols going down much in cal15. For those not seeing much of a chance of oil going below 454, but don't see much of a rally ahead either, something like a clz5 45/75 DNT at 31% would make sense.. G15 48.20% +6.10% 45.20% +4.85% H15 45.20% +4.30 % 42.80% +3.90% M15 38.90% +2.40% 36.55% +1.85% 215 31.80% +1.30% 30.55% +0.65% Base Metals 3m lvls dod change support resistance Al 51927.75 -S7.5 51925 51945 Cu S6396 -494 56300 56530 Zn 52178 -$13 52150 $2200 Ni 516,450 -$225 516,300 517,100 Pb 51966.25 +528.75 51975 52010 The base complex was looking relatively strong in the morning on expected Chinese stimulus but traded down in the afternoon, reversing gains from the morning on a weaker dollar and lower oil. Copper prices saw modest gains in the morning reversing the gains at around 13:00 before coming off heavily in the afternoon, crashing through S6300. Australia's Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics is forecasting a 300 kMT copper surplus in 2015. China's Gansu province, the 4th largest copper producing region in the country increased it's output by 20% to around 93 KMT in October, however Shandong, the 3rd biggest copper producing region saw a drop in output from -101kMT to 96kMT. Rio Tinto sees the copper market entering deficit in 2018 on increased demand in electricity networks as they build and incorporate more renewable energy sources. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are amassing copper holdings in order to repeat it's iron ore strategy of squeezing out high cost producers. Their jointly owned Resolution project in Arizona could meet 25% of US copper demand on it's own, Escondida in Chile could produce lmnMT/year -5% of world output. Nickel prices reached highs of 516860 this morning on news that First Quantum shut it's 38 kMT Ravensthorpe plant in Australia after a sulphuric CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 122850 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00269034 EFTA01461042