EFTA01453882.pdf

Nay From: Nay Gupta/db/dbcom To: 'eevacation ail.com Cc: Vinit Sahni Date: 14/04/2014 18:17 Subject:Jeffrey - 4 trades I like - Nay [C] Classification: Confidential Hi Jeffrey, There hasn't been much I've really liked recently. Here are four trades - 3 I like right now and 1 for now or soon. 1) BUY 10y BTPS 3.16% - This is a 3-6mth 'buy the rumour sell the fact' tactical trade to position for ECB OE (now) The ECB is preparing both itself and markets for QE - Its senior board members have stepped up public comments over the past 48hrs. This is the clearest sign so far QE could happen and why I am writing to you now. Ideally ECB wants to buy ABS from small to medium sized European companies but the outstanding available is relatively small so it will likely buy Eurozone Government Bonds. The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds has tightened significantly past 18months but old metrics of value make no sense in Europe because they rely on history when there was no QE. While It's hard to get excited about 10v BTPs yielding 3.16% (164bn over 10Y German Bunds) I'd still have 5-10mm 10v BIN in my portfolio both for the duration and spread compression potential. I prefer lOy over 5y because the recent nearly parallel spread compression has left 5slOs steep relative to 0-5s.. 3 reasons i like this trade: i) macro investors view ECB QE as a second bite at the cheny. Everyone I talk to wants European risk assets having seen QE in the US. ii) ECB QE is probably still 3-6mths away which will keep credit bid. This will be a buy the rumour sell the fact trade iii) Credit has been bulletproof during the recent risk selloff because a) ECB QE expectations, b) G3 rate hikes are being pushed into the future while cash has nowhere CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0111728 CONFIDENTIAL SONY GM_00257912 EFTA01453882