📄 Extracted Text (89 words)
Bad fundamental conditions:
1. Current account deficit larger than 3% of GDP
2. Fiscal deficit larger than 3.5% of GDP
3. Unemployment higher than 6%
4. US Manufacturing PMI below 45
5. Inflation higher than 4%
1 year S&P 500 returns, 1948-2012
Investment # of Bad
Scenario Conditions Average Max Min Std #obs
Going to hell > =3 19% 59% -19% 16% 110
Life is fine None 15% 48% -16% 14% 231
Not so bad Only 1 7% 47% -40% 18% 258
Source: Bloomberg. J.P. Morgan Asset Management
EFTA01187645
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