podesta_email_00335.txt

podesta-emails 4,231 words email

P17 V11 P22 D6 V16

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Wednesday, July 15 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://www.centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/July-15.pdf) Headlines: * Israel Warns of Problems in Iran Deal * Diplomat: US to Circulate UN Resolution on Iran Agreement * Netanyahu: My Relationship with Obama had no Bearing on Deal * Clinton: This Agreement can Make Israel Safer * Kerry: Netanyahu 'Way Over the Top' on Iran Nuclear Deal * Pro-Israel Groups in US Line Up to Slam Iran Deal * Netanyahu and Herzog Meet to Discuss a 'Unified Stance' Commentary: * Ynet News: "Iran Deal Puts Military Option Back on Table" - By Ron Ben Yishai * Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Deal over Our Heads” - By Nahum Barnea ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israel Warns of Problems in Iran Deal (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4680042,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Many Iranians rushed onto the streets of Tehran on Tuesday night to celebrate what they see as a great victory - an agreement on the country's nuclear program that would leave Iran a significant portion of its capabilities and remove the sanctions that are choking its economy. 1,500 km away, officials in Jerusalem are warning that the agreement will preserve Iran's nuclear capabilities, while making effective supervision very difficult. An Israeli government official said Tuesday evening that "According to the agreement, Iran can be warned up to 24 days before being visited by inspectors. It's as if police who want to raid a drug lab would give the criminals 24 days warning – it is inconceivable." See also, “Keeping Iran’s Feet to the Fire” (Foreign Policy) (http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/14/the-nuclear-deal-doesnt-mean-the-end-of-sanctions-iran/) ** Associated Press ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Diplomat: US to Circulate UN Res on Iran Agreement (http://www.timesofisrael.com/diplomat-us-to-circulate-un-resolution-on-iran-agreement/) ------------------------------------------------------------ A UN Security Council diplomat says the United States will circulate a draft resolution Wednesday that will authorize the agreement between six major powers and Iran to rein in its nuclear program. The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. informed council members Tuesday evening that it would introduce the resolution at the end of closed consultations on Libya scheduled for Wednesday morning. The diplomat says US Ambassador Samantha Power will outline the main points in the agreement to council members. ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** PM: Relationship with Obama had no Bearing on Deal (http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-relationship-with-obama-had-no-bearing-on-iran-deal/) ------------------------------------------------------------ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday evening said it was “absurd” to suggest that his relationship with US President Barack Obama had any bearing on the nuclear deal. In his third statement to the press in a single day, the prime minister said that without Israel’s efforts to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Tehran would have already broken out to the bomb. Israel will continue to work to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, he vowed. Netanyahu made a brief statement after exiting a security cabinet meeting, during which the ministers voted unanimously to reject the Iran deal “and determined that Israel is not bound by it,” according to a press release. ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Kerry: Netanyahu 'Way Over the Top' on Iran Deal (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4679987,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ US Secretary of State John Kerry lashed out at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday night, saying the Israeli leader's claims about the nuclear deal signed with Iran were "way over the top." "This is under attack by people who really don't know the terms of the agreement," Kerry told NBC News. "What the critics of this plan never offer... is a realistic alternative," he said, displaying evident frustration. "It's wrong for people to think this doesn't have long-term accountability." Netanyahu dubbed the agreement a "stunning historic mistake," saying the world was now a "much more dangerous place" as a result. Kerry rejected these comments, saying, Netanyahu "said the same thing about the interim agreement, and he was wrong. The fact is that he's been practically making comments that are way over the top.” ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Pro-Israel Groups in US Line Up to Slam Iran Deal (http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Pro-Israel-groups-in-US-line-up-to-slam-Iran-deal-409009) ------------------------------------------------------------ Within hours of the unveiling on Tuesday of a nuclear pact between Iran and six world powers, the loudest pro-Israel voice in Washington was warning the US Congress of problems, marking the onset of what promises to be a furious lobbying campaign. AIPAC said in a statement it was "deeply concerned" that the deal "would fail to block Iran's path to a nuclear weapon and further entrench and empower the leading state sponsor of terror." The considerable clout of pro-Israel interests on Capitol Hill will play an important role in deciding the fate of the pact, hammered out in Vienna. Some of the lobbying will be aimed at Jewish members of Congress, who will be influential voices in the upcoming debate. Besides lobbying, 2016 political campaign contributions to members of the US Congress are expected to be dangled. ** Ha'aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Clinton: This Agreement can Make Israel Safer ------------------------------------------------------------ Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton voiced her support of the nuclear pact between Iran and six world powers, unveiled in Vienna on Tuesday, and also vowed to strengthen ties with Israel in view of Jerusalem's concerns over the deal. The deal "can help us prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon," Clinton said in a statement, adding that "with vigorous enforcement, unyielding verification, and swift consequences for any violations, this agreement can make the United States, Israel, and our Arab partners safer." Against the background of severe Israeli criticism of the agreement, Clinton also stressed that "Israel has to be confident that the United States will always ensure its Qualitative Military Edge in the region and its capacity to defend itself by itself." ** Ha'aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** PM and Herzog Meet to Discuss a 'Unified Stance' (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.666065) ------------------------------------------------------------ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Opposition Leader Isaac Herzog met on Tuesday to discuss the nuclear deal signed between world powers and Iran. In their meeting, the prime minister updated the opposition leader on the briefs given to cabinet ministers regarding the implications of the deal to Israel's security. Netanyahu told Herzog that the agreement between the coalition and the opposition regarding the danger the deal entails for Israel's security is especially important at this time, and added that "on this issue, relating to the most significant national interest, it's important to present the world with a unified stance." Herzog reiterated his statements from earlier on Tuesday, saying that the deal is bad and that he is "enlisting to do everything for the security of the State of Israel in the new situation that has been created." ** Ynet News– July 15, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Iran Deal Puts Military Option Back on Table (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4680010,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ The Vienna agreement does delay Iran's construction of a bomb by a year or more, but if Iran chooses to violate the deal, it could get the bomb within a few weeks; Israel must prepare for a potential pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and on Hezbollah. By Ron Ben Yishai At the end of the day, the success of the agreement signed on Tuesday in Vienna depends on the goodwill of the Iranian leadership, which is notoriously untrustworthy. Israel should therefore take the necessary precautions and prepare for an Iranian violation of the agreement. The historic agreement signed in Vienna Tuesday is a diplomatic masterpiece. In its essence, the text doesn't prevent Iran from going nuclear, but does insure that it won't achieve such abilities in the immediate future – that is, not during the tenure of President Barack Obama and the other world leaders involved in the agreement. Obama faces two difficult months ahead during which time he will need to convince the members of both houses of Congress to approve the agreement, including the lifting of sanctions on Iran. He may have to veto an opposition decision by the Republican majority in the House and find ways to please the many Democrats who do not support the deal. But the American president will have his way in the end. This will be his greatest legacy in the realm of foreign policy, an agreement that turns the page on US-Iran relations and postpones a nuclear Middle East for a few years. From Israel's point of view, the agreement puts the military option back on the table and increases its urgency. The Israeli government will now have to decide whether or not to attack Iran if and when the ayatollahs decide to make a break for a nuclear weapon. But Obama can comfortably say, without fear of being disproved, that the Vienna agreement does realistically delay Iran's construction of the bomb by a year or more - just as promised. Obama and the other world powers can also brag that means of inspection agreed upon allow for strict oversight of uranium production and if Iran breaks the rules, they will be able to renew sanctions. Similarly, it can also be said that before the agreement expires and while sanctions are lifted, Iran will open up to the West and maybe the regime will change its nature and give up its desire to command a nuclear arsenal. Obama repeatedly made concessions, but at least he got something in return World champions of fraud On the other hand, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is completely correct in saying that the Vienna agreement doesn't prevent Iran from developing and producing a nuclear weapon. The deal only delays the process, in the best of circumstances for 10 years or more, in the worst of circumstance for one or two years. The date that will determine everything is the day sanctions on Iran will be lifted in their entirety (in 2016) plus another two years. After a period of time, it probably won't be realistic or possible to consolidate an international consensus to renew the sanctions or for the Americans to act militarily if Iran breaks the rules. Iran's leadership will be free to either stick to the agreement or break it either openly or secretly. Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guards will decide which path to take. It should be remembered that the Iranians are world champions of fraud. They acquired invaluable experience in the field over the last decade. Until the West deliberates and decides what to do, the ayatollahs will already have the knowledge and quick, modern infrastructure to enrich uranium as well as an ability to produce a minimized war head to be mounted on a rocket. Under these conditions, the road to a nuclear weapon is only a matter of a few months. Even if the next US presidents remained determined and united with other world powers to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities in 10-15 years’ time, they will have a difficult time doing so in practice. Until everyone recognizes that Iran definitely decided to make a break for the weapon, and until they decide what to do, even a US military strike will be too little too late. And that's in the best case scenario that Iran follows the rules they signed off on in the agreement. Only one year to a bomb Already today, Iran is a threshold state, capable of enriching uranium to the level required for developing a warhead two-three months down the line. But its military program is not as advanced – nobody in the West is able to say with certainty how long Iran would need to develop an operational nuclear warhead; the estimate is that they would need another few months. So, realistically, Iran is a year away from the bomb. The agreement’s greatest achievement is that it keeps the breakout time at that. In terms of uranium enrichment, it even puts further obstacles, because it requires Iran to dismantle most of the centrifuges in its possession and drastically reduce the reserve of enriched uranium it currently holds (which is sufficient for six-eight bombs). Also, Iran will be prevented altogether from enriching plutonium to levels required for military use. This is Obama’s main achievement. No less important, Secretary of State John Kerry conditioned the removal of the sanctions upon the reduction of Iran’s enrichment capabilities. In other words, the sanctions will not be fully removed until Tehran proves, upfront, that the conditions were fully met. But what if Iran violates the deal? But there remains a huge loophole that beckons the Iranians to cheat. Even though it would be a violation of the agreement, Iran is perfectly able to develop new models of centrifuges that could enrich uranium at a pace that is three to eight times greater than the old ones. Essentially, were Iran to choose not to abide by the deal, it would be able to get the bomb within a few weeks. But the biggest loophole of all is IAEA’s limited ability to monitor and inspect violations of the restrictions on manufacturing the weapons themselves. Even though the inspection clauses are draconian, Iran can engage in foot-dragging that would simply stymie them. As to ballistics, the Vienna agreement leaves many loose ends. In practice, Iran can continue to develop ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and multiple re-entry missiles that, further down the line, will be able to carry nuclear warheads. Free to buy and sell weapons Other clauses that aren’t directly connected to Iran’s nuclear capability are also hardly encouraging, like its renewed ability to sponsor terror and insurgency across the Middle East. The powers conceded to Iran’s demand to alleviate the UN Security Council prohibition on buying and selling conventional weapons. It will be only two years down the line but, eventually, Iran will be able not only to arm Syrian President Bashar Assad, but also to purchase air defense systems to protect their nuclear facilities. In addition, the removal of the sanctions will bring Iran billions of dollars in revenue as early as 2016 – a sum big enough not only to stabilize its failing economy, keep the Revolutionary Guards at bay and perpetuate the Islamic regime (against the wishes of the West), but also to fund terror and press on with their aspirations for regional hegemony. This is a grave concern not only for Israel, but for Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, too. A gentlemen’s agreement? Could a better agreement have been achieved? Possibly. But the problem with the Vienna accord, just like other treaties to curb nuclear proliferation, is that it depends, at the end of the day, on the goodwill of the Iranian leadership and, even more so, on the deterrence power of the West. The agreement is based on trust. The Western powers believe that if Iran signed the deal it will either abide by it or openly declare it void. That’s not the way of the Middle East. It proved ineffectual vis-à-vis North Korea as well. True, the Iranian regime is more sensitive to sanctions, but once they’ve been removed it will be ten times more difficult to renew them. Would no deal have been better? It wouldn’t have worked either. The sanctions would have remained in place, but Iran would have still been able to accumulate uranium, develop new centrifuges and build warheads, and break out the minute Khamenei had put his mind to it. The agreement, thus, is the lesser of two evils: At the very least, it delays Iran’s nuclear armament by a few years – and that, it should be noted, is exactly what Israel wanted to achieve a few years ago by launching a military strike. Therefore, there’s no use crying over spilled milk and pointing fingers. What we need now is a clear operative plan that takes into account the possibility that Iran hasn’t given up on trying to get the bomb. That’s why we need to keep the pressure on Iran, and opt for a military strike if Iran goes nuclear; and if one day it comes to pass that Iran has a nuclear arsenal, Israel would have to create an effective deterrence and abandon its long-held nuclear ambiguity policy. To this end, Israel will need to do the following: * Improve the relationships with the Obama administration and other Western governments. Netanyahu’s rallying with the Republicans in Congress won’t hinder the implementation of the agreement, and will only abet the hostility of the White House. Israel has no time to wait until Obama stands down; * Reach understandings with the American administration about what counts as violations of the deal, and what sanctions it would entail; * Beef up intelligence gathering on Iran to minimize the risk of a strategic surprise; * Improve Israel’s defense against missiles, as well as aerial and naval attacks; * Prepare for a potential pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and on Hezbollah and save it for when it is clear without a shadow of a doubt that Iran is moving towards getting the bomb. Hezbollah will need to be attacked at the same time because it’s clear that it will take a proactive role in any conflict between Israel and Iran. ** Yedioth Ahronoth – July 15, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** A Deal over Our Heads ------------------------------------------------------------ By Nahum Barnea I did not find a single mention of Israel in all 159 pages of the agreement with Iran—not even a hint. On the one hand, this is good: If the world powers were to apply to Israel the same demands that they are posing to the Iranian nuclear project we would be in great trouble; on the other hand, this is outrageous: an agreement that has fateful significance for anyone who lives here was signed over our heads, as if there were nothing between Tehran and Vienna save the good intentions of the ayatollah regime. Israel is nowhere to be found. The disregard of Israel is not only offensive, it is dangerous. It may pose more dangers to Israel than the Iranian nuclear threshold. In a certain sense it returns us to 1956, when then-US president Eisenhower and the Soviet prime minister, Bulganin, sent threatening letters to the Israeli government and forced it to withdraw from Sinai. Our prime minister was cheered in the US Congress; he was disregarded in the talks in Vienna. The bottom line is that it would have been best had he been cheered less and his country been given more consideration. The articles of the agreement deal solely with two issues: the nuclear program and sanctions. But their ramifications are much broader. It is no accident that the world media hurried to call the agreement “historic”: Far beyond the nuclear issue, it marks a possible shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, in Iran’s diplomatic and economic status, perhaps its military status as well, and in its relations with the international community, first and foremost with the United States. The ayatollah regime has received international legitimacy without having undertaken to change its agenda one bit, apart from a freeze of the nuclear project for 10 or 15 years. US Secretary of State John Kerry, whose life’s dream was to formulate an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement that would bring him a Nobel Prize, will receive his Nobel thanks to the agreement with Iran. It is not Netanyahu and Abu Mazen who will stand next to him at the ceremony in the Oslo municipality, but rather Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of the ayatollahs. Kerry will accept the change gladly; a Nobel Prize is a Nobel Prize. The agreement with Iran is what Kerry will take home with him when he ends his term. This achievement will be his pride; this achievement will be his disgrace. After the interim agreement was signed, I wrote that the agreement was the lesser evil; that we should judge it not only by what it has and what it lacks, but also by what might have happened had the agreement not been signed. Scrutiny of the full document reinforces this feeling. It enables Iran to exist as a nuclear threshold state, a year’s distance from a bomb. But the alternative—a bellicose Iran, armed with nuclear bombs, free of supervision—is more disheartening. Netanyahu would prefer an American military operation that would destroy the nuclear facilities along with large parts of Iran. The Americans had no intention of doing this. When President Obama said that all options were on the table, he was bluffing, just as Netanyahu was bluffing when he threatened an Israeli military strike. Netanyahu and Barak invested billions in military preparations that were designed to convince the world that Israel intended to act. For a certain period the bluff worked; it made a contribution to intensifying the sanctions. The problem is that the sanctions did not work—they caused great damage to the Iranian economy, but did not stop the nuclear project. In the absence of a military operation, Netanyahu would prefer the continuation of the sanctions. In the past few weeks, the aspiration to have the sanctions continue became a matter no less important than the battle against the nuclear program. When the sanctions are removed, Netanyahu says, Iran will be flooded with money; the money will flow to Hizbullah and Hamas, and will be translated into terrorism against Israel. His battle against the agreement was based on a gamble—that despite the continuation of the sanctions, Iran would be wary of producing a nuclear weapon. It would remain on the threshold. It is with this gamble that he is now going to the US Senate. But the Iranians are now the smaller part of his gamble. The pot has grown; the odds have become worse. In the coming two months the Senate will be the arena of a violent struggle between Netanyahu and the Obama administration. Based on the initial reactions to the agreement, all the Republican senators will vote against it. Obama will cast a veto. To break the veto, Netanyahu needs 13 Democratic senators. He will get some of them—mainly those who depend on Jewish voters and Jewish funding. His chances of reaching 13 are not high. The chances are not high because in his confrontational speech in Congress and in all his statements, he pushed the Democrats into Obama’s arms; they are not high because US public opinion likes historic agreements, and likes even better agreements that diminish the chance of another war in the Middle East. They have not broken free of Iraq and Afghanistan yet. They have no interest in another front; the chances are not high because all the Democratic candidates for presidency, headed by Hillary Clinton, support the agreement; and the chances are not high because Obama is enjoying a good period, perhaps the best period in all the years of his presidency. Suddenly things are falling in place for him. It is difficult to defeat a president in such a situation. The price of the battle against Obama is troubling: It pertains to the compensation package that the security establishment justifiably expects to receive from the United States. Doesn’t this battle relieve the White House of the obligation to compensate Israel? Netanyahu tells his ministers that he is not impressed by the compensation. This is empty talk. Security officials think otherwise. Isn’t Israel pushing Obama to settle the score with it on another front, the Palestinian front? If Obama comes out with his own plan, or instructs [US diplomats] to stop protecting Israel in international organizations, the diplomatic price, perhaps the economic and morale price, will be high. And the main thing is, with the services that Israel provides the Republican billionaires, it is weakening the Jewish lobby and losing the support of most of the Jews. It is selling its birthright for a mess of pottage. Netanyahu is behaving like a person who is convinced that this is a battle over Israel’s very existence. He is wrong: Israel will exist. The Holocaust is not on our doorstep. The fact that Israel did not succeed in thwarting the agreement and did not even succeed in influencing its content is a stinging failure. But Netanyahu is failure-proof: in his world there are only two possibilities—either he is a winner, or he is a victim. In the elections, he won; in the agreement with Iran, he is a victim. Instead of giving the Israelis a sober accounting about what happened, he informs them that the Holocaust is on the way. What will the Israelis do with the doses of scare tactics that he is administering to them? Ehud Barak came last night to the television studio to infuse a bit of sanity into the Israelis, a bit of sobriety. This was like a refreshing breeze on a humid day. ============================================================ S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 ** www.centerpeace.org (http://www.centerpeace.org) 2015 S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, All rights reserved. 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