EFTA02552922.pdf

From: Barrett, Paul S < Sent: Tuesday, April 3, 2012 6:27 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Cc: Giuffrida, David Subject: Gilead - buy April calls ahead of EASL abstracts tomorrow =OA Jeffrey<=span> &=bsp; Big catalyst for Gile=d GILD tomorrow. If our=analyst is right, the stock could be up 20% tomorrow. =OA Let's buy $50 strike April calls for $0=2E85 Expectations on SVR4 for '7977: Street expectations: 40-50% and as high as 60%<=p> JPMe: 70% Stock moves =nce see the SVR4 data: <=0%: down -15-20% <40% :down=- 5-10% 40-50%: not much changed=o:p> >60%: up 5-10% >70%: home run and would be up 20%+ 1 EFTA_R1_01709793 EFTA02552922 Abstracts for t=e European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASE) are expected to c=me out tomorrow (conference is April 18-22). Exact timing is unclear, bu= our research team is expecting the abstracts to come out between 10- 11AM=OD ET. This will be a key event for the HepC space with stock m=ving data for GILD and BMY and updates coming from VRTX and IDIX. <=:p> GILD: Key data will be SVR at 4 weeks for the GT1/naive population. It =s unclear if the abstracts will actually include the SVR data or if we wil= have to wait to the actual conference. In addition to the '=977 data, GILD may also release additional data on combination studi=s which give a peak into their non-7977 assets. Ex=ectations on SVR4 for '7977: Street expectations: 40-50% and as high as 60% =p class="MsoNormal">.IPMe: 70% Stock moves once see =he SVR4 data: <30%: down=- 15-20% <40% : down - 5-10% 40-50%: not much changed >60%: up 5-10% >70%: home run and would be up 20%+<=p> J Some very=basic info on the HepC space that should be helpful when looking at some o= these releases. Genotypes: =OA 2 EFTA_R1_01709794 EFTA02552923 Important GT1 subg=oups: Within GT1 there is GT1a and GT1b which are about equally distribute=. The GTla is harder to treat than GT1b. =nbsp; Endpoints:</a RVR (rapid viral response) — measured =fter 4 weeks ON treatment EVR (=arly virologic response) — measured after 12 weeks ON treatment=/o:p> SVR (sustained viorlogic response) &=8211; measured at X weeks AFTER treatment — this is often the '=cure rate' IL28 polymorphism: This is another indicator in determining how difficult the virus is t= treat CC: easiest to treat CT: intermediate =OA TT: hardest </a DISCLAIMERS: THIS IS NOT A PRODUCT OF JPM RESEARCH. OPINIONS MAY DIFFE= IN THE SHORT TERM. Amanda Ens I Vice President I Global Investment Opportunities I J.P.Morgan I =MIS ID: 853443 320 Park Ave, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022 3 EFTA_R1_01709795 EFTA02552924 =OD =OAThis email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and cond=tions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy=and completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege= and legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pa=es/disclosures/email. 4 EFTA_R1_01709796 EFTA02552925