EFTA01457999.pdf

Interview The big picture Crises create opportunities: Greece and Europe must take the next steps The chances of Mr. Wohrmann, once more, we have to And could still lead to "Grexit" after all? talk about Greece. Although Greece's The discussion of "Grexit" should be restructuring Greece influence on the world and even on the conducted in a non-dogmatic way. There European economy is limited, the Greek are positive examples of the dissolution have never been crisis was still felt on U.S. and Asian stock of currency unions (the former Soviet exchanges. One reason for this sensitivity Union) and of economic recoveries higher. is that the functioning of monetary unions after devaluations (Iceland). But leaving is of global interest. How do you assess the euro would be a road paved with the Brussels compromise? many unknowns, and the economy I think it is a good political solution in would be paralyzed again during the the present circumstances. Politics is transition period. A "Grexit" would not the art of the possible, not necessarily be possible against the will of the Greek the implementation of the economic people anyway. The opposition to the optimum. However, what we are talking re-introduction of the drachma even by about here is a fragile, protracted process. the tourism industry, which might be one As slowly as Greece was sliding towards of the winners from devaluation, speaks "Grexit", it is now moving away from volumes. By the way, Greece's export it. Greece will have to deliver reforms base may well not be broad enough to permanently with further aid only granted benefit from devaluation. step by step. But this also offers a great opportunity to the Greek government The The United Kingdom and the United neceeetty of change serves as a protective States are very down on "Grexit" and the shield against domestic attacks. Now Brussels compromise. the Tsipras government must articulate a Surprising, isn't it? They have long viable domestic agenda. Neither turning identified Greece's membership as one back nor standing still is an option any of the Eurozone's biggest flaws so why longer. The chances of restructuring should "Grexit" now suddenly pose a Greece have never been higher. major threat? I am less surprised that these two countries now desire a more Do you think that the Greek population relaxed approach towards Greece. They shares this optimism? have only a minor financial stake in the Greece will need a cross-party, societal Greek rescue arid have themselves carried and foreign-policy consensus in order to current-account deficits over many years. seize this opportunity. Capital controls - as well as some elements of the rescue Are Greece's economic data proof of the package which reduce demand - are failure of all programs so far? hampering growth, which could be Over many years, the Greek economy has politically explosive. resembled a foundering ship with many Past performance is not indicative of future returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be reached. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and your capital may be at risk. You might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. ;1 0 trZatits%wee Ca: V4* I Ammaa.6.ti6x.IA:t..w 7015 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0117745 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00263929 EFTA01457999