EFTA01462237.pdf

From: Tazia Smith Sent: 9/25/2014 2:18:12 PM To: 'eevacation@ mail.com CC: ; Paul Morris Vinit Sahni • Nav Gupta I I; Vahe Stepanian I Subject: Fw: Key themes & trades Happy New Year Jeffrey - Below please find key themes and trade ideas from Vinit and Nav's DB KCP Global Capital Markets team. In short: - Continue to press euro short • Long Indian rupee vs. euro - Sell S&P puts to buy 4x SW calls - Long Nikkei via risk reversals [could do rr on your DXJ) Please see below and we will refresh any trades that resonate with live levels. Regards, Tazia --- Forwarded by Tazia Smithrdbidbcom on 0929201401:32 PM Key themes: • Divergence in monetary policy between the Fed & Bank of England on the one hand and ECB & Bank of Japan on the other • Continued capital inflows into Asian countries where financial conditions are easing (eg, Japan) and/or structural reforms are being implemented (eg, India) • US recovery - buying into dips as US anchors global growth EURUSD continues to break down if you're looking to reload: • Trade: A 1y EURUSD 1.25 put financed by selling the 1.30 call has zero net premium (spot ref: 1.2740) • • EURUSD has broken below 1.28 during the last 24 hours • With US data continuing to firm, the market is recalibrating when the Fed will deliver hikes - earlier rather than later • On the other hand, given the ECB's stated determination to spur inflation in the Eurozone. full-blown QE looks likely next year This chart shows the correlation between EURUSD and the spread between EUR and US interest rates (yellow) CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 124695 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00270879 EFTA01462237