EFTA02106578.pdf

From: Sent: Tue 4/29/2014 9:51:40 AM Subject: Early Tour 4.29.14 Good Morning ... European Markets up 0-75 bps (Italy/Norway +1.3%) ... NKY closed, SHCOMP +0.84%, HSI +1.45%, KOSPI -0.23%, TWSE +0.71%, ASX -0.89% EUR 1.3869 (+0.13%) JPY 102.65 (-0.15%) EUR/JPY 142.37 (+0.29%) RUB +0.45% CAD +0.40% SEK +0.38% US 10yr 2.72% Futures: Dow +40, Nasdaq +14, S&P +5 DXY $79.61 (-8c) Crude 5101.36 (+0.52%) Gold $1290.40 (-$8.70) Copper -0.11% Silver -0.99% Nat Gas -0.56% AsiaPac markets finish mixed overnight with indices trading in +/- 1% range and volumes light as Japan was closed for Showa. Australia underperformed as the iron ore names continued to sell off on concerns about yesterday's reports out of China that the banks are going to be significantly changing the terms of letters of credit using iron ore as collateral. Hong Kong is lower with Macau getting hit hard on a number of broker downgrades post the most recent run rate number suggesting April's GGR is going to come in near the +7% y/y number. China managed to rebound on reports of SOE reform and a net injection of RMB 91 billion ahead of the upcoming holiday. European markets generally higher although France and Belgium are flat to down small. Nokia +7.3% a notable outperformer after its cash return plans came in above expectations, while UK outsourcing firm Serco -21% is the worst performer in the EStoxx600 after another profit warning. Heaviest earnings day of the season so far as much of this week's releases are out today given the holiday coming up for most of the region on Thursday. See below for a full recap. CaseShiller & Consumer Confidence out later and the macro calendar will pick up tomorrow with US GDP, BOJ, FOMC, and Eurozone CPI. SPA's +5 handles = 1871 last. n'SPCS Home Price Index 9am, Consumer Confidence 10amen ***CHKP,CNX,COH,FRX,GT,VLO,S,MGM, earnings preopen"• ***DNB,EBAY,ESRX,FISV,GNW,MAR,OI,STX,X,DWA,PNRA #'s after close" • Herbalife topped ests & boosted forecast on strong sales growth (ends div to repurchase stock) (trading flat) • Buffalo Wild Wings strong quarter as profit jumped due to sales strength, boosted outlook (trading 4.5% ) EFTA_R1_00722824 EFTA02106578 • General Growth Properties good #'s with FFO beat on solid occupancy/rent & raised view (trading inline) • Hartford Financial beat on robust P&C & group margins (underwriting profit best since 3Q10) (trading +2%) • Plum Creek Timber eps & revs ($317M vs $314M ests) topped & reaffirmed 2014 view • Nokia margins better, Rajeev Sun CEO, €5B capital structure optimization program (trading +7.3%) • Serco may see material downward revision to views, consulting holders on equity placing (trading - 21%) • Deutsche Bank beats lowered expectations, trading revenue beats estimates (trading +2.1%) • Sanofi inline with consensus, maintaining guidance, no need to jump on merger bandwagon (trading -1.6%) • ABB 19% EBIT miss driven by power systems, Q1 sales $9.47B versus estimate $9.76B (trading - 6.8%) • Hermes revenues beat by 2%, constant currency growth +15% vs consensus +12% (trading +0.27%) • Atlas Copco operating profit/sales/margins light, order intake inline, outlook raised (trading +1.8%) • Orange O1 sales & EBITDA beat, reiterates FY earnings target, no big acquisitions in plans (trading +4.2%) • BP Q1 profit drops with output, net income inline, dividend increased, solid start to 2014 (trading +0.88%) • Volkswagen O1 EBIT €2.96 vs estimate €2.74B, still sees 2014 stable revs give or take 3% (trading -0.64%) • Nordea O1 solid with costs and loan losses slightly lower, profit rose 4.7% in O1 (trading +3.1%) • Santander Q1 net better than ests, offers E4.7 billion in stock for 25% stake in Brazil unit (trading +0.68%) • Cap Gemini Q1 revenues inline, bookings +5.0% y/y, FY14 guidance reiterated (trading -1.1%) • Infineon results look better, revenues 7% ahead, margins better at 14% (consensus 12%) (trading +5.3%) • STMicroelectronics revenues inline, opex cut better than expected, economic improvement (trading +1.4%) • Statoil Q1 better, sales & ebitda +4% vs consensus, strong production & high gas price (trading +3.9%) • Eni net income inline with consensus, sees 2014 gas sales slightly lower on the year (trading +2.0%) EFTA_R1_00722825 EFTA02106579  • Shire: continued bid speculation in the press that Allergan may make an approach (SHP LN +3.4%) • Essilor 1.3% revenue beat with like-for-like growth +2.4% (mkt +1.6%), decent short interest (trading +3.8%) • Whitbread trading looks strong to start, net debt is down, dividend better at 68p (mkt 63p) (trading +0.54%) • Nobel Biocare Q1 net income and sales miss consensus estimates, maintains forecast (trading +0.41%) • Enagas Small beat across the board with net at E99.7M and EBITDA at E245.9M (trading -0.18%) • MTU Aero (MTX GY) Q1 results generally inline with estimates, backs 2014 outlook (trading -3.5%) • TomTom raises revenue & profit forecasts, sees modest rev impact from DAMS takeover (trading +9.8%) Leading European Sectors: Tech +1.86%, Banks +1.23%, Oil & Gas +1.15% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res +0.01%, Retail +0.26%, Utilities +0.35% JJSF eps light — HELE penny miss, reorganizes — RUTH penny better QCOR missed — AMP $2.5B buyback — AMKR gm's beat N boosted yr view — SU mixed — TCS eps missed CRUS buying WLF LN — STJ LN strong update — FUM1V FH Ws solid CEO NO strong results — WDI GY #'s better — SGL GY sales weak SCAB SS slightly weaker — OTE1V FH #'s weaker — RDW LN positive statement TCY LN confident statement — OUT1V FH #'s weaker — GEBN VX strong Ws PWTN SW #'s inline — UG FP cap raise details — CPW LN Ws mixed AIXA GY sales inline — SGRO LN demand improving — GALP PL Ws weak Secondaries (announced/priced): FET, UACL, MEG, GPT (holders), EPB IPO's (filed/priced): Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) files $86.3M IPO through Barclays, JPMorgan and Citi IPO's (lock-up expiration): Container Store (TCS) EFTA_R1_00722826 EFTA02106580 US Key Research: • Barcap upgrades CHH & initiates FIVN (ow), Berenberg initiates CCLJNCHL/RCH (buy) • GS initiates OPWR (buy), JMP initiates TSLX (mp), JPM initiates FIVN (ow) '. MLV initiates AMRE (buy), MS initiates OPWR (ow) and GRUB (ew), Nomura cuts CCE • Nomura initiates KO (buy), Piper initiates VNCE (ow), BMO initiates GRUB (op) W. Blair initiates SONS/AUDC (op), JMP initiates TSLX (mp), Bofa initiates FIVN (buy) r PacCrest upgrades HPQ & initiates GNTX (sp) and OPWR (op). Jefferies upgrades EE (buy) • Raja upgrades IM (strong buy) & upgrades TECD, KBW upgrades LBAI, GS initiates OPWR (buy) Europe Key Research: • Exane upgrades OCDO LN, Citi downgrades SRP LN, GS upgrades AMER LN & CW/ LN • UBS upgrades RMV LN, BofA adds RMG LN to Europe 1 list, SEB upgrades ORI SS • SocGen downgrades ABBN VX, Nordea initiates LATOB SS (sell) & LUNDB SS (sell) & MELK SS (sell) • HSBC adds AF FP & removes LHA GY to Europe Super 10 list, Barclays upgrades ABG LN Kepler upgrades AZN LN, Panmure upgrades AZN LN, MS downgrades BNP FP & upgrades GLE FP Mirabaud upgrades LOGN VX, Numis upgrades FOXT LN, HSBC upgrades WG/ LN • Liberum downgrades AMEC LN, HSBC downgrades AAL LN & ANTO LN, Kepler downgrades RYA ID Reporting Pre-Open: ADM, BMY, BSX, CHKP, CMI, CNX, COH, ESV, ETN, FRX, GT, HCBK, FIRS, LYB, MHFI, MRK, PCAR, PH, ROK, VLO, WAT, XYL, ACPW, AGCO, Al-IC, ALR, AMG, ARRY, AXE, CARB, CAS, CBR, CBRX, CIT, CMLS, CPLA, CRY, DBD, DDD, DFRG, EME, FOP. FLWS, GEO, GK, GLT, GTLS, HCA, HMST, HSII, HUN, NW, INOD, IPGP, IRWD, JRN, KLIC, LFUS, LG, LKQ, LRN, MGI, MGLN, MGM, MLM, NCI, NMM, OSK, PCMI, PES, PLT, POR, PROV, RESI, RYN, S, SAVE, SCL, SCOR, SLAB, ST, STAR, STBA, STCK, TRIB, TRS, TRW, TWIN, UDR, UTHR, VAC, WDR, WRLD, WWW EFTA_R1_00722827 EFTA02106581 Reporting Post-Close: AFL, BXP, CHRW, DNB, EBAY, EIX, ESRX, FISV, GAS, GNW, MAC, MAR, O1, STX, TE, VRSK, X, AAT, ACHC, ACMP, AEC, AEGN, AMC, AMRE, ANH, ANIK, APAM, ARI, ATM, AXS, AZPN, BBRG, BCRH, BGFV, BOOM, BSAC, BTUI, BXMT, CACC, CALX, CAP, CCG, CCUR, CEB, CEMP, CGI, CHE, CLD, CLUB, CMRE, CNQR, COLM, CRAY, CSCD, CTIC, CVTI, DHT, DLB, DWA, EBAY, EPIC, EPR, EZPW, FALC, FARO, FEIC, FELE, FFBC, FFIC, GFIG, GMED, GPRE, HCC, HF, HFWA, HIW, HURN, IKAN, IPHI, KAI, KFRC, KRA, KTCC, KWR, LMAT, LOGM, MBFI, MRCY, MTSI, MWA, NANO, NATI, NCR, NDLS, NUVA, OHI, OSN, PNRA, POWI, PRXL, PSEM, QTS, REXX, RFMD, RM, RNG, RNR, ROG, RPXC, RVBD, SIMG, SKT, SLCA, SM, STR, SWI, SYX, TAYC, THG, TMH, TRLA, TRN, TWTR, TTS, TWTR, UTLI, VIMC, VNR, VPRT, VRIS, WSH, WTS, XCO, ZLTQ Economic Data: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index @ 9am, Consumer Confidence Index @ 10am Conferences: Barcap Retail and Consumer Discretionary (NYC) Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: AMD, BBRY, CPRX, CRK, CODA, DRTX, FATE, GORO, JPM, KEY, KMX, NAVB, OCR, PFIE, RAD, SILC, TUP, VSTM, WSO Shareholder Meetings: SYT, BLMN, CB, HSC, RTIX, TDC, ARI, CGNX, CIE, DTV, HME, KOPN, TSO, VNTV, EXH, HUM, WFC, CCBG, CNSL, CTBI, DPZ, EROC, GAS, HSY, IBM, LCNB, PRGS, SCL, SUBK, SYPR, TRMK, X, AIV, BAGL, BBT, FHN, GLW, KEX, MAN, PZZA, YRCW, BKH, MRC, SU, HNSN, TAC, VGZ, HLF, MVC, PCAR, ROVI, FCBC, FMC, ALEX, SEM, BOKF, CAC, VMI, LAZ Equity/Mixed Shelfs: RAS ($100M), SHBI ($100M) Other Newspaper Articles 14 Stories WSJ negative: Bank of America (BAC) WSJ • U.S., Europe Raise Stakes With Putin WSJ • Pfizer Sees Tax Savings From AstraZeneca Deal WSJ EFTA_R1_00722828 EFTA02106582 • Error by BofA Scuttles Buyback WSJ • Deutsche Bank Hit by Fixed-Income Slowdown WSJ • Markets Gird for Return of El Nino WSJ • Icahn, Ackman Make Peace WSJ • Texas to Pay $10,OO0 for Each Toyota Job WSJ • Lose Your Triple-A Credit Rating? Who Cares? WSJ • Pfizer Proposes a Marriage With AstraZeneca, Easing Taxes in a Move to Britain NYT • Bank of America Finds a Mistake: $4 Billion Less Capital NYT • Nokia unveils Suri as new chief executive FT • US warns web users to log off IE FT • Media's coverage offsets hostile banker-bashing, says study FT • Bitcoin entrepreneurs target Mt Gox lifeline FT • HS2 bill takes express route through Commons FT • Women CEOs 'more likely to be fired', says study FT • US infrastructure: Broken system FT • Boris should stick to running London FT • The bold designs that deter banknote forgers FT • Ukraine crisis: US extends sanctions on Russia FT • India needs a jolt — and Modi is a risk worth taking FT • Bank of America: more red faces Lex • US cable: strange bedfellows Lex • Pfizer / AstraZeneca: a pill wind blows? Lex • GE / Alstom: commanding heights Lex • Chinese provinces miss growth targets The Times • EU exit 'would hurt every business and family in Britain' The Times • The super-rich could win political gold for Ed The Times • Republicans are a few cattle short of a ranch The Times EFTA_R1_00722829 EFTA02106583 • UK advertising market buoyed by mobile boom Independent • A divorce could be very costly if Alex Salmond runs off with Scotland Independent • U.S. Sets Up Unit to Help Find Pillaged Foreign Assets WSJ • Income Levy Debate: Australia's Budget Realities Tax Abbott WSJ • Boom Time in Texas: Jobs, Traffic, Water Worries WSJ • Bankrupt Detroit Reaches New Labor Agreement WSJ • Without reform, it would be best for Britain to leave EU Telegraph • Cameron must set himself against the spirit of the age Telegraph • Bank of England prepares stress tests to ensure banks can survive housing crash Guardian • Labour's economic policy: industrial revolution required Guardian • Politicians must not interfere to block takeovers of UK firms Guardian • UK savings rate may more than double after reforms CityAM • UK's top bosses more likely to have worked around the world CityAM Key Events This Week Wednesday: O1 GDP, ADP Employment Change, Chicago PMI, FOMC Rate Decision and OE3 Pace, China NBS Manufacturing PMI April, BOJ policy decision, Eurozone CPI, German Labor data, Earnings (ACT, ADT, ADP, GRMN, HSP, IP, MOS, PSX, CBG, MET, MUR, WMB) Thursday: MayDay (most of Europe closed — UK, Ireland, Denmark open), Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending March, Autos Sales April, Challenger Job Cuts, Yellen speaks in Washington, Earnings (AMT, BLL, BWA, CAH, CLX, CTRX, HAR, HST, IRM, IVZ, K, LM, MSI, MA, EXPE, KRFT, MHK, PSA, SWN, XL, WU) Friday: April Employment Report, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apri, Eurozone Unemployment rate March, China non-manufacturing PMI, Earnings (CVS, CVX, EL, GHC, MMC, NU, PNW, SRE) Sunday: China April HSBC manufacturing PMI EFTA_R1_00722830 EFTA02106584  Key Events on the Horizon May 5 — Ira Sohn Conference NYC 9 (link) May 17 — Portugal exits EU/IMF bailout program 680 Washin ton Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 lit This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203-302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any attachments) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA_R1_00722831 EFTA02106585