EFTA01458600.pdf

Mee pouitent roc:* The bras ICIUDS levenmere eerie hghts Atlit44/35 prspnctivos Americas b, ratioht, 1441torencuon Kkel Commodities Alternatives 1.0% Portfolio Our asset-class allocation in a balanced portfolio Traditional asset classes Within the core part of our balanced portfolio, we cover traditional liquid assets such as equities, fixed income and commodities. The chart shows how we would currently design a balanced portfolio, including Fixed income alternative asset classes.' Equities EagritfAi might Developed markets 460% ■ Equities ▪ United States 26.5% We stay generally positive on developed market equities, where Europe 12.0% returns could reach low double-digit levels one 12-month horizon. However, we are now in a mature market phase II Japan 5.6% and periods of high volatility are likely as valuations return to • 2.0% Pacific ex Japan historical levels. This means that tactical changes in allocations may be necessary. We are much more cautious on emerging Emerging Markets 4.0% markets, with Asian markets affected by their trading links with Asia ox Japan 3.0% China. Latin American equities are likely to fare worse, due in part to problems surrounding Brazil. Latin Amenca 1.0% Fixed income Fixed income II Credit 2.6% When the Fed starts to raise rates, most likely in December, core yields will rise- if not by very much. European and Japanese • Sovereigns 31.6% Emerging markets 2.0% bond markets will remain we€l-supported by accommodative policy from ECB and Bank of Japan (BOJ). We are cautious on Cash 30% U.S. investment grade but continue to see opportunities in high Commodities yield. Emerging-market bonds may offer high levels of carry but X Commodities 1.0% this will be accompanied by increased risk, at least in the short term, making a highly selective approach essential. Emerging Alternatives markets' increased levels of U.S.-dollar•denominated debt are a X Alternatives 10.0.1O concern. ■Commodities Oil prices are forecast to increase from current low levels, but Sources. Regional Investment Committee (RIC), only slowly - we forecast a price of $55 per barrel WTI on a Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 12-month horizon. Demand for oil has so far proved resilient Investment GmbH, Deutsche Bank Trust Company to slower emerging-markets growth, but the market remains Americas, as of 9124/15 in oversupply, although there are already signs that U.S. shale This allocation may not be suitable for all investors. output could moderate. Gold is likely to trade in a tight range determined by U.S.•dollar strength: its "safe haven" appeal Past performance is not indicative of future returns. would be boosted by a prolonged period of market turmoil. We No assurance can be given that any forecast, investment see only limited opportunities in commodities, so keep portfolio objectives and/or expected returns will be achieved. allocations at low levels. Allocations are subject to change without notice. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be ' Alternative investments aro dealt with separately in the incorrect. next chapter. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients. it trione CO \1 4 / 4.1krt.gat E*Y-361OCtotw 2015 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118583 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264767 EFTA01458600