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Ben White | 04/28/2016 08:00 AM EDT GET READY FOR A CRUMMY GDP NUMBER - Once again the first quarter looks to be a total dud. It will be the third year in a row the U.S. economy has started the year by stalling out. And once again, many analysts believe things will pick up in the second and third quarters. Still, expect to hear plenty from Donald Trump and other GOP candidates and office holders about the sorry state of the U.S. economy after the numbers comes out at 8:30 a.m. HFE's Jim O'Sullivan: "We now estimate a 0.9 percent annual rate of growth in real terms, instead of 0.5 percent. The most important new information was a much-lower-than-expected merchandise trade deficit for March ... As before, we forecast reacceleration in real GDP to a 2.5 percent annual rate in Q2. We believe the underlying trend is still at least 2 percent" Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "Our base case for today's advance estimate of first quarter GDP growth is just +0.5 percent. The Atlanta Fed's estimate is 0.6 percent, and the New York Fed is at 0.8 percent, though the latter does not reflect the startling drop in the March trade deficit. ... Whatever prints this morning, though, the key point here is that the GDP report will show that the economy performed poorly in the first quarter, following growth of just 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. "At the end of last year most forecasters, ourselves included, hoped for a clear rebound in the first quarter. If we wanted to put a positive spin on the data, we'd argue that even a cursory glance at the extent of the seasonal adjustment problems strongly suggests that the second quarter will be much better." FIRST LOOK: WHY YAHOO WAS ALWAYS DOOMED - New Bloomberg Businesssweek cover: "Yahoo's $8 Billion Black Hole: Marissa Mayer's turnaround plan may have been doomed from the start" by Max Chafkin and Brian Womack: "If you go by one popular analysis of the company's valuation, Yahoo is worth approximately -$8 billion. The minus sign isn't a typo. A more charitable analysis, where one imagines Yahoo selling its stock and paying the full corporate tax rate, is that its operating business might be worth $6 billion." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6990f99bd54b05558f53a8033d1fc85945d4040ed2d081e68 THE MEDIA ISSUE: POLITICO MAGAZINE ONLINE TODAY - POLITICO Magazine's MEDIA ISSUE is out just in time for WHCD festivities! Don't miss this sweeping look at the press' role in the rise of GOP frontrunner Donald Trump - from NYC tabloid writers who made Trump a celebrity, to the complicity of cable news, to on-the-ground reporters riding the Trump rollercoaster. ... In this must-read issue featuring Jack Shafer, Campbell Brown, Michael Grunwald, Michael Crowley and Ben Schreckinger among many others, POLITICO Magazine asks, "Just what have we done?" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda645b55c722c35215041df3508c148491f97c2d052ebe4c46f or grab a copy tomorrow. WHITE HOUSE LAUNCHES NEW STUDENT LOAN EFFORT - Via White House release: "Today, the White House is announcing new actions and highlighting the progress already made to help ensure the more than 40 million Americans with student loan debt understand their repayment options and access high-quality customer service, strong consumer protections, and targeted support to repay their student debt successfully. ... "Today's actions build on that progress and provide a roadmap to guide and support borrowers as they seek to manage and repay their debt successfully: New Goal to Enroll 2 million More Borrowers in Plans like Pay As You Earn (PAYE). ... Launch of StudentLoans.gov/Repay. ... The CFPB is seeking comment on a new set of student loan servicing disclosures - a student loan Payback Playbook" HEDGE FUND CRASH COMING? - FT's Mary Childs and Stephen Foley: "One of the most powerful US hedge fund managers believes that the industry is in 'first innings of a washout' after a string of disastrous market calls inflicted steep losses on many funds. Daniel Loeb's stark comments, in his first-quarter letter to investors in his fund Third Point, come as institutions such as pension funds are questioning the value of investing in hedge funds. "The first quarter was 'one of the most catastrophic periods of hedge fund performance that we can remember since the inception of this fund,' in December 1996, Mr Loeb said. 'There is no doubt that we are in the first innings of a washout in hedge funds and certain strategies.' ... Mr Loeb recounted a litany of recent woes for hedge funds. Many have been caught on the wrong side of market swings, such as those related to the Chinese economy and its currency, he pointed out." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6a77c1655c0d3df2d07148acfb71ee14237a07e53a0f8bbe6 CRUZ GETS DESPERATE - POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher, Katie Glueck and Alex Isenstadt: "Ted Cruz talks a lot about conservative leadership but there was nothing conservative about his desperate gambit naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate less than 24 hours after he was mathematically eliminated from winning enough delegates for the Republican nomination. ... In tapping Fiorina, the Cruz campaign hopes to shake up a hardening political narrative of Trump's inevitability, to stem the bleeding after six straight losses, and to lift his fortunes in the coming key contests of Indiana, where the surprise announcement was held, and California, where Fiorina first planted her political roots. It was a bid for a game changing moment - and a not-so-tacit acknowledgment that, unless something significant in the current nominating game changed, Cruz was headed for defeat" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda604984e2f8b660f7bffc5dad31b9ac59072f2da6562b4565b GOOD THURSDAY MORNING - The bet is on for #CapsPens, a case of Heinz ketchup from former Heinz CAO Ted Smyth if the Caps win and a case of DC's own Mumbo sauce if the Pens win. Let's go Caps! Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES - Jon Prior on a government watchdog's concern about nonbank mortgage firms - and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. - please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email protected] DRIVING THE DAY - House Ag subcommittee has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on the impact of margin requirements on end-users ... Deputy Treasury Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin this afternoon "will host the Senior Leaders of the Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee (FBIIC) at a meeting on cybersecurity policy" ... First estimate of third quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. expected to show growth of just 0.6 percent ... GDP CALL - Business Forward is hosting a call at 10:00 a.m. to discuss the GDP report with Commerce Department Chief Economist Dr. Ellen Hughes-Cromwick and PGIM Managing Director Ed Keon http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6c66742e93d9b976b1241237ed9b0f2e0449251744690bea9 ** A message from Allied Progress: #DebtTrapDebbie Wasserman Schultz isn't the only Member of Congress trying to sabotage President Obama's hard work to rein in predatory payday lenders through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Vote now and help Allied Progress decide who to expose next. CAST YOUR VOTE TODAY: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda64761c2ab0f8c2b09d54c1bd0ebad859185c7299ba9fb78c3 ** TRUMP'S FOREIGN POLICY - This is a money-focused newsletter. We will leave the finer points of Donald Trump's foreign policy address to others. But it's very hard to believe it included this line: "America First will be the major and overriding theme of my administration." It's possible neither Trump nor the person who actually wrote the speech knows the dark history of the America First movement and its dogged efforts to keep the United States from doing anything to stop the Nazi rampage across Europe. America First counted among its supporters the Nazi sympathizer Charles Lindbergh and the virulently anti-Semitic Father Charles Coughlin. It's also possible the speechwriters knew about America First's history and simply didn't care. Which would be even worse. On the money front, the speech simply reiterated Trump's protectionist approach to trade and vague pledges to return manufacturing jobs, something he would not be able to do. Full text of the speech: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6d2ac7d39bb5957b4943ccdd595e1ff7bce6dedbc4600e000 THE BIG MONEY - Bloomberg's Anders Melin: "NantKwest Inc., a cancer-research firm that went public last year, gave Chief Executive Officer Patrick Soon-Shiong a $147.6 million pay package for 2015, the highest reported by any company so far. Soon-Shiong's compensation exceeds that granted Google Inc. CEO Sundar Pichai, who received $100.5 million last year to run the search-engine unit of parent Alphabet Inc. ... Soon-Shiong, a co-owner of the Los Angeles Lakers basketball team, received stock options valued at $132.2 million and $15 million in restricted stock "A medical doctor and entrepreneur, Soon-Shiong, 63, became a billionaire after selling drug companies APP Pharmaceuticals Inc. in 2008 and Abraxis BioScience Inc. in 2010. Cambridge Equities LP, an investment partnership he controls, bought 31 percent of NantKwest less than a year before its IPO and is the company's majority shareholder. ... His net worth is $9.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda69b31d8cc5ebb42c4a6b813f5748e7161fa006d80022aa1b2 FACEBOOK CRUSHES - WSJ's Deepa Seetharaman: "Facebook Inc. reinforced its standing as a mobile-advertising powerhouse, nearly tripling its quarterly profit at a time when its Silicon Valley rivals are underperforming. The social network on Wednesday said advertising revenue jumped 57 percent in the first quarter to $5.2 billion from $3.3 billion. Mobile ads, which command a higher price than those shown on desktops, accounted for roughly four-fifths of that revenue. ... The stronger than expected results drove Facebook shares up 8.8 percent in after-hours trading, lifting the company's market valuation above $330 billion. "Facebook also said its board had proposed creating a new class of nonvoting shares, designed to further cement founder and Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg's control over the company. The new Class C shares would have the same economic rights as other shares but wouldn't have voting rights, allowing Facebook to distribute them to employees and through acquisitions without diluting Mr. Zuckerberg's control" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda65a42203bd7397896ee3dcb78837051e9559c3e9cda039f80 VALEANT CEO ADMITS MISTAKES - NYT's Katie Thomas: "The chief executive of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, which has been harshly criticized for its practice of raising prices on old drugs, said during a tense hearing on Capitol Hill on Wednesday that the company had made 'mistakes,' while lawmakers accused him and others connected to Valeant of favoring profits over patients' needs. "'Let me state plainly that it was a mistake to pursue, and in hindsight I regret pursuing, transactions where a central premise was a planned increase in the prices of the medicines,' J. Michael Pearson, the chief executive, said at the hearing. ... Mr. Pearson, who will soon step down as chief executive, appeared subdued and sometimes slumped in his seat as he answered questions. Some of the senators appeared unmoved by Mr. Pearson's expression of regret.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6eeabdbd50f6991bd42d09ac43a0217ee01781fb829fc1d02 FED FLY AROUND - YELLEN STAYS PUT - FT's Sam Fleming: "The Fed ... signalled that its concerns about global economic and financial hazards have eased since its meeting in March, even as it continues to closely watch developments overseas as well as mixed indicators at home ... The central bank held rates at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent .. as it noted a slowdown in US economic growth and more sluggish household spending. ... The [FOMC] struck out a reference in its previous statement to international risks to the US economy, following an improvement in financial market sentiment and lessened concerns over Chinese policymaking. That suggests the door is open to a second increase in short-term interest rates in the coming months "However, the Fed also indicated that it remained on guard for another adverse turn of events abroad. ... The median expectation from Fed policymakers' interest rate forecasts suggests the official rate will be lifted twice this year, with some analysts looking to June or July for the first of these moves and December for the second." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6129fad0dc2511ba50b8acc1cafaf5d486261f81c392024f2 Blackrock's Rick Rieder: "There were no surprises in today's Fed announcement, as the central bank will be on pause for at least the next few months and the pace of rate normalization will be very slow. ... In addition to its traditional domestic considerations of labor market growth and inflation, the Fed is understandably concerned with risks from abroad, so watching the USD and financial conditions in China should provide clues to any Fed move AXA IM's David Page: "The ... statement acknowledged slower economic activity, but also an easing in headwinds from abroad. However, there were few clues to the monetary outlook. These are only likely to emerge over the coming weeks with participants' commentary and the minutes to this meeting. "We continue to expect a modest acceleration in economic activity to return the FOMC to considering tighter policy again. On balance, we forecast the FOMC to tighten policy again in July, one of two expected moves this year." MARKETS MOVE HIGHER - Reuters: "Asian stocks edged higher on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve appeared to be in no hurry to raise interest rates, while oil consolidated gains after hitting a 2016 peak." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6a6ca74e7820378e1a784a49c32986a3e56c05e850e79ff02 ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR - NEW ANTI-POVERTY BILL INTRODUCED - Per release: "In spite of years of national economic recovery and strong growth in the stock market, more than 50 million Americans are living in economically distressed communities. Bipartisan legislation from Senators Tim Scott (R-SC) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Representatives Pat Tiberi (R-OH) and Ron Kind (D-WI) aims to catalyze growth and opportunity in these" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda6248c1e64c3eed251bd8715aa9f995422740f491a8dce74d4 RATTNER DROPS BID TO RETURN TO I-BANKING - NYT's Liz Moyer: "Remember Steven L. Rattner's return to investment banking? Never mind. The former financier, who in 2010 was barred from the business for two years and sought re-entry in 2013, withdrew his long-stalled request for reinstatement, according to an April 8 letter informing regulators of the decision ... The withdrawal occurred within weeks of the Securities and Exchange Commission's order that cleared his path to affiliate with the advisory firm Guggenheim Securities. "Representatives of Mr. Rattner said Wednesday that the S.E.C.'s March 14 order approving his application to affiliate with Guggenheim had been stayed while the agency's commissioners reviewed the work of the trading and markets division staff, which had approved the March order. Because Guggenheim and Mr. Rattner withdrew the application, that review never took place, the representatives said" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f5ab6b8e06f5dda62703fdb9b087fcce673edfe361edb7336e0f4b37ba81a729 ** A message from Allied Progress: #DebtTrapDebbie Wasserman Schultz isn't the only Member of Congress trying to sabotage President Obama's hard work to rein in predatory payday lenders through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Vote now and help Allied Progress decide who to expose next. Who will it be? Rep. Corrine Brown - Rep. Kathy Castor - Rep. Lois Frankel - Rep. Alcee Hastings - Rep. Patrick Murphy - Rep. Bill Posey - Rep. Dennis Ross? 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