EFTA01451305.pdf

associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic21110.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> To: vinit Sahni/db/dbcom@DBEMEA, Date: 14/01/2014 10:18 subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> Malmo 30y look interesting [c] agreed lets do 3m On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 4:23 AM, Vinit Sahni wrote: Classification: confidential Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the PDVSA analysis, started looking at Mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and USD/MNN likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, I think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 101110Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in Mex and credit diff is 100bp (10Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year. In sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in uSTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... (Embedded image moved to file: pic32480.gif) CNYMXN chart courtesy Nay Gupta (shows relative value in Labour cost between china and Mexico) (Embedded image moved to file: pic31604.gif) (Embedded image moved to file: pic15154.gif) vinit Sahni managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners capital markets Group Deutsche Asset & wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. IIIIMININION Mobile Email CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 107754 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00253938 EFTA01451305