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AGP LP 519 Alpha Group Capital Paul Barrett
1990s. Moreover, in addition to these three performance drivers, it is worth noting as we enter October that seasonality
historically favors equity investments in the fourth quarter.
Seasonality* of MSCI US performance
75% 60%
80%
2.0%
• At%
1.6% a
■ 60%
1.0% 50%
■
05% 40%
30%
00%
-OS%
I • 20%
10%
0% 0%
Am Feb Mar Apt May in JJ Aly Sep Oct Nov Dec
■ Median MSCI US performance (%mom) ■% of line market is up
'Median since 1970. Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan.
Our portfolio continues to trade at a forward EV/EBITDA (gross cash flow) multiple discount to the market, despite the
portfolio's superior growth rate, reflecting an attractive risk/reward ratio in our view.2 We believe such discount is likely to
widen further at year-end, when the calendar shift contracts multiples by a percentage amount roughly equal to the
forward annual EBITDA growth rate.
Forward EV/EBITDA for Alkeon Growth vs Indices
20
18 AGP —e—MSCI World S&P
16
14
cr 12
a 10
6
4
2
2033 2034 2035 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sept)
Year
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0087877
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00234061
EFTA01386261
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